Impact Analysis
#Kebijakan #Perdagangan #DonaldTrump and Reactions from the Business Community
1. Trump’s Trade War Policy: Goals and Reality
Donald Trump implemented protectionist policies during his presidency (2017–2021), including:
- High Import Tariffs, especially against China (for example, a 25% tariff on $250 billion of Chinese goods).
- Reevaluation of Free Trade, such as renegotiating NAFTA into USMCA and withdrawing the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
- Political Pressure through Tariffs, such as threats of tariffs against the European Union and Mexico to force policy changes.
Trump's main goals:
- Reduce the US trade deficit.
- Bring manufacturing back to the US (“America First”).
- Pressure China on unfair trade practices (IP theft, industrial subsidies).
Real outcomes:
- The US-China trade deficit remains high, even swelling before the pandemic.
- Costs borne by US companies, particularly those reliant on imported raw materials from China (for example, the electronics and agriculture sectors).
- Retaliation from China through counter-tariffs, hurting US exporters such as soybean farmers and liquor producers.
2. Why Are Business Leaders Losing Trust?
Bill Ackman is not the only one worried. Many CEOs and investors are concerned because:
- Regulatory Uncertainty: The trade war makes long-term business planning difficult.
- Rising Operating Costs: Companies like Walmart and Tesla complain about rising raw material prices due to tariffs.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: The manufacturing industry (for example, automotive) faces production delays.
- Threat of Global Recession:
#IMF and
#WorldBank warn of the trade war's impact on economic growth.
Examples of criticism from the business community:
- Tim Cook (Apple): Privately urged Trump to avoid escalation with China.
- Elon Musk (Tesla): Called tariffs "innovation stiflers" as they disrupt battery supply.