Oil

China is seizing the opportunity to buy discounted Russian oil in large volumes, while the United States under Donald Trump imposes new tariffs on India for doing the very same. This contrasting approach from Washington is already reshaping trade flows and altering the balance of the global energy market.

China Boosts Imports, India Pulls Back
According to Bloomberg, Chinese refineries nearly doubled their imports of Urals crude in August compared to the 2025 average. The shipments, coming from Black Sea and Baltic ports, are heading directly to China, just as India sharply reduces purchases under U.S. pressure.
Until recently, India imported around 1.18 million barrels per day of Russian crude. After Trump’s new tariffs, however, these volumes have dropped to just 400,000 barrels per day. China, on the other hand, has increased its daily Urals intake to roughly 75,000 barrels, compared to its earlier average of around 40,000.

Trump Gets Tough on India, Spares China
So far, the White House has avoided targeting China’s imports. Last week Trump said he would refrain from imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods, despite Beijing’s growing intake of Russian oil. The reason, he explained, was progress in negotiations with Vladimir Putin.
His trade advisor Peter Navarro called India’s oil purchases “opportunistic and deeply negative,” but admitted that cracking down on China would likely hurt the U.S. more than help it. As Mukesh Sahdev of Rystad Energy noted: “Trump knows he can’t pressure China. He can pressure India — and that’s exactly what he’s doing.”

Tankers Headed for China
According to Kpler and Energy Aspects, Chinese firms have already booked between 10 and 15 Urals cargoes for October and November delivery. Off the coast of Zhoushan, two large tankers — the Georgy Maslov and the Zenith — are currently anchored, each carrying 1 million barrels. This region is home to the major Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical Co. refinery and strategic storage facilities.
Analysts expect more ships to follow if prices remain attractive. Muyu Xu, chief oil analyst at Kpler, said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese snap up more November deliveries in the coming days.”
At present, Urals crude is priced at just $1 per barrel above Dated Brent, and even without further discounts remains highly competitive for Chinese buyers.

India Waits, China Stocks Up
Indian refineries are still receiving offers, but after Trump’s tariffs, the economics no longer add up. Processors have chosen to wait. China, in contrast, is doing the opposite — buying and stockpiling the surplus that India no longer takes.
“Those barrels not taken by India have to go somewhere,” Sahdev explained. “Right now, only China can absorb them. Without Chinese demand, Russian oil would have to fall further in price to attract new buyers.”
By punishing India while leaving China untouched, Trump’s policies are highlighting the geopolitical double standards shaping the global oil trade. China is strengthening its role as Russia’s key customer, while India bears the weight of U.S. sanctions.

#china , #India , #russia , #oil , #TRUMP

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While Donald Trump warns the world about more tariffs for trading with Russia, Beijing and Moscow are clearly charting their own course. In July, trade between China and Russia reached its highest level of the year, despite a sluggish first half and ongoing pressure from the United States.

July Marks a Turnaround – Trade Hits $19 Billion
According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, bilateral trade in July reached $19.14 billion, marking an 8.7% increase compared to June. After a slow start, trade has bounced back and delivered fresh momentum to relations between the two powers.
However, over the first seven months of 2025, total trade still lagged 8.1% behind the same period in 2024, totaling $125.8 billion. Year-over-year, July’s figures were also slightly lower — down 2.8%.

Imports Up, Exports Down
In July, China imported $10.1 billion worth of goods from Russia, up 4% year-over-year, while Chinese exports to Russia fell 8.9% to $9.1 billion. From January through July, total Chinese exports reached $56.2 billion (down 8.5%), while Russian exports to China dropped 7.7% to $69.6 billion.
According to Russia’s TASS agency, this left Russia with a $13.34 billion trade surplus, virtually identical to the same period last year.

Trump Targets China After India
This surge in trade comes just as former U.S. President Donald Trump threatens new tariffs on China, similar to the 25% sanctions he recently imposed on India for continuing to import Russian oil. Trump has made it clear that Beijing could be next in line if it doesn’t change course.
But China is standing firm. In a statement to Bloomberg, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded:
“It is legitimate and lawful for China to maintain normal economic, trade, and energy cooperation with all countries, including Russia.”
They also emphasized that China would continue to safeguard its energy security in line with national interests.

Oil Remains the Key Commodity
Russia’s top exports to China include crude oil, natural gas, and coal. In 2023, Russia shipped a record 108.5 million tons of crude oil to China, making up nearly one-fifth of China’s total oil imports.
According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, Russian oil deliveries in July slipped slightly, falling below 4 million tons. Between January and July, Moscow reportedly shipped 32 million tons — 4 million less than during the same period in 2024.
China, meanwhile, exports a wide range of products to Russia — from cars, electronics, and machinery to toys and clothing.

Economic Ties Strengthen Despite Geopolitical Friction
Despite the rhetoric, sanctions, and global tension, China and Russia continue to deepen their economic relationship. In 2023, total trade grew by 26% to $240 billion, and in 2024, they broke another record with $244 billion in bilateral exchange.
July’s numbers show that not even mounting pressure from the West can halt the strategic alignment of these two global powers.

#china , #russia , #oil , #TRUMP , #Geopolitics

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Tensions in global oil trade are rising — four Russian oil tankers loaded with Urals crude remain anchored off India’s western coast. Local refineries are awaiting government instructions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new wave of sanctions targeting countries still importing Russian oil.
The tankers Achilles, Elyte, Destan, and Horae departed in late June but have yet to be cleared. They are located near the port of Sikka, which serves major Indian companies such as Reliance Industries and Bharat Petroleum.

🛢️ New U.S. Tariffs and Sanctions Shake the Market
Trump’s administration declared this week that India will face new import tariffs due to its continued purchase of Russian oil. Along with that, came a warning: more sanctions could follow if India fails to curb its imports from Moscow.
The move follows the European Union’s latest round of sanctions against Russia. The U.S. is now tightening pressure on the global oil market, especially on those nations that have maintained a relatively neutral stance.

📉 Indian Refineries Ordered to Find Alternatives
India’s response was swift — government officials instructed domestic refineries to prepare alternative sourcing plans. The aim is to avoid supply shocks if Trump's team expands the sanctions. Companies have been asked to present strategies for securing oil from non-sanctioned countries.
The Achilles and Elyte tankers were initially scheduled to offload in early August. Each vessel holds around 700,000 barrels and both were previously sanctioned by the EU and UK, increasing the legal risks for Indian importers.
Destan and Horae, also Aframax-class tankers, are still offshore. While Destan is on the sanctions list, Horae is not — yet. Its final destination remains unclear, and Indian authorities are watching closely to see if Washington expands its sanctions framework.

🌍 Trump Escalates Russia Rhetoric – With Doubts About Sanctions’ Effectiveness
Tensions are not just legal — Trump escalated his rhetoric during a White House press conference, revealing that special envoy Steve Witkoff will soon travel to Russia. His mission: mediate peace talks in the Ukraine conflict. Earlier this year, Witkoff visited Moscow and met with President Vladimir Putin, though without a breakthrough.
Trump confirmed plans for more sanctions, stating: “Yes, we’ll impose sanctions. I don’t know if they care. They know about sanctions. I know about sanctions, tariffs, and all the rest better than anyone. I don’t know if it works, but we’ll do it.”

🚢 Over 2.8 Million Barrels of Crude Wait at Sea
The four Russian-linked tankers near India now hold over 2.8 million barrels of oil in limbo. With no clear decision made, the cargo remains onboard, and refiners are left waiting.
This episode underscores how quickly geopolitics can reshape global energy flows — and just how thin the line between trade and diplomacy can be. The question remains whether India will continue energy cooperation with Russia or yield to mounting pressure from Washington.

#russia , #TRUMP , #Geopolitics , #oil , #worldnews

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