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What is a Black Swan Event, or How to Prepare for the Next Crypto CatastropheHave you ever seen a black swan? Probably not. They’re not common (unless you’re in Australia), and we’re more accustomed to white swans worldwide. That’s why, since 2001, the writer and mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb has used this rare animal to describe outlier events, often negative, very impactful, and almost impossible to predict. That’s the ‘Black Swan Theory’. The term doesn’t differ that much in the cryptocurrency realm. A Black Swan Event in crypto is an unexpected and rare event that has a huge impact on the market, often causing extreme price crashes or major disruptions. As we’ve said before, these events are usually unpredictable, but they may seem obvious only in hindsight. Examples include major exchange collapses, sudden regulatory crackdowns, or yes, a global pandemic.  Besides the price volatility, a sudden event like this can spread fear and uncertainty, causing many to sell their holdings, reducing liquidity. Governments might respond with stricter regulations, affecting businesses and users. If trust in the market weakens, adoption could slow down, making it harder for cryptocurrencies to reach widespread use. However, Black Swan Events don’t tend to repeat themselves – that’s why they are difficult to predict. Previous Black Swans in Crypto The COVID-19 pandemic was a major Black Swan Event that impacted global markets, including crypto. In March 2020, as fear spread, investors rushed to sell risky assets, causing $BTC and other cryptocurrencies to crash by over 50% in just a few days. However, as governments introduced stimulus measures and interest in digital assets grew, crypto markets rebounded and reached new all-time highs in the following years. This event highlighted both the volatility and resilience of cryptocurrencies. The Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 was another major Black Swan Event. Mt. Gox was considered, by many sources, the biggest Bitcoin exchange at the time. However, due to mismanagement and hacks, it lost around 850,000 BTC, leading to its bankruptcy. The collapse shook investor confidence and caused Bitcoin’s price to drop significantly. It also exposed the need for better security and regulation in crypto exchanges, shaping the industry’s approach to risk management. In 2022, the Terra (LUNA) crash and FTX bankruptcy were two of the most devastating Black Swan Events. Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, UST, lost its peg (it wasn’t stable anymore), wiping out billions of dollars and collapsing the entire ecosystem. Later that year, FTX, one of the largest exchanges, went bankrupt due to fraud and mismanagement (and likely as a side effect of Terra, too), further damaging trust in the industry. Both events led to stricter regulations and made investors more cautious. That’s the thing with Black Swan Events. They’re often devastating enough to make everyone learn from previous mistakes and make efforts (and laws) so that they don’t happen ever again. The European Union, for instance, banned algorithmic stablecoins after the Terra episode. Future Black Swans in Crypto? While price predictions are never fully reliable, Black Swan events are even more unpredictable. Analysts can study markets and news, forming their own theories and guesses, but nothing is certain—no one can truly see the future. However, some preventive measures are always available. To protect themselves from Black Swan Events, crypto investors should diversify their portfolios and avoid putting all their funds into one asset. Holding a mix of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and even traditional assets can reduce risks during market crashes. Choosing coins that have survived past crises and proven their resilience is also crucial. Long-established projects with strong fundamentals and active development are more likely to withstand unexpected downturns. Additionally, investors should practice risk management by setting stop-loss orders while engaging in speculative trading, and only investing what they can afford to lose. Keeping funds in secure non-custodial wallets instead of exchanges can also prevent losses in case of hacks or bankruptcies. Staying informed about market trends and regulatory changes can help users react quickly and make better financial decisions. It’s also important to remember that cryptocurrencies weren’t created just for speculation. The real value lies in their utility and autonomy. Instead of chasing price movements, users should focus on projects that offer them some real-world benefits. For example, Obyte has provided a resilient and fully decentralized crypto ecosystem since 2016. Its DAG-based platform eliminates middlemen like miners and “validators” while enabling smart contracts, conditional payments, customized tokens, self-sovereign ID, textcoins, chatbots, and more, making it a strong choice for those looking for the most resilient crypto ecosystems. Originally Published on Hackernoon #BlackSwan #CryptoCautions #BearishAlert #CryptoCrashAlert #Obyte

What is a Black Swan Event, or How to Prepare for the Next Crypto Catastrophe

Have you ever seen a black swan? Probably not. They’re not common (unless you’re in Australia), and we’re more accustomed to white swans worldwide. That’s why, since 2001, the writer and mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb has used this rare animal to describe outlier events, often negative, very impactful, and almost impossible to predict. That’s the ‘Black Swan Theory’.
The term doesn’t differ that much in the cryptocurrency realm. A Black Swan Event in crypto is an unexpected and rare event that has a huge impact on the market, often causing extreme price crashes or major disruptions. As we’ve said before, these events are usually unpredictable, but they may seem obvious only in hindsight. Examples include major exchange collapses, sudden regulatory crackdowns, or yes, a global pandemic. 
Besides the price volatility, a sudden event like this can spread fear and uncertainty, causing many to sell their holdings, reducing liquidity. Governments might respond with stricter regulations, affecting businesses and users. If trust in the market weakens, adoption could slow down, making it harder for cryptocurrencies to reach widespread use. However, Black Swan Events don’t tend to repeat themselves – that’s why they are difficult to predict.

Previous Black Swans in Crypto
The COVID-19 pandemic was a major Black Swan Event that impacted global markets, including crypto. In March 2020, as fear spread, investors rushed to sell risky assets, causing $BTC and other cryptocurrencies to crash by over 50% in just a few days. However, as governments introduced stimulus measures and interest in digital assets grew, crypto markets rebounded and reached new all-time highs in the following years. This event highlighted both the volatility and resilience of cryptocurrencies.

The Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 was another major Black Swan Event. Mt. Gox was considered, by many sources, the biggest Bitcoin exchange at the time. However, due to mismanagement and hacks, it lost around 850,000 BTC, leading to its bankruptcy. The collapse shook investor confidence and caused Bitcoin’s price to drop significantly. It also exposed the need for better security and regulation in crypto exchanges, shaping the industry’s approach to risk management.
In 2022, the Terra (LUNA) crash and FTX bankruptcy were two of the most devastating Black Swan Events. Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, UST, lost its peg (it wasn’t stable anymore), wiping out billions of dollars and collapsing the entire ecosystem. Later that year, FTX, one of the largest exchanges, went bankrupt due to fraud and mismanagement (and likely as a side effect of Terra, too), further damaging trust in the industry. Both events led to stricter regulations and made investors more cautious.
That’s the thing with Black Swan Events. They’re often devastating enough to make everyone learn from previous mistakes and make efforts (and laws) so that they don’t happen ever again. The European Union, for instance, banned algorithmic stablecoins after the Terra episode.
Future Black Swans in Crypto?
While price predictions are never fully reliable, Black Swan events are even more unpredictable. Analysts can study markets and news, forming their own theories and guesses, but nothing is certain—no one can truly see the future. However, some preventive measures are always available.

To protect themselves from Black Swan Events, crypto investors should diversify their portfolios and avoid putting all their funds into one asset. Holding a mix of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and even traditional assets can reduce risks during market crashes. Choosing coins that have survived past crises and proven their resilience is also crucial. Long-established projects with strong fundamentals and active development are more likely to withstand unexpected downturns.
Additionally, investors should practice risk management by setting stop-loss orders while engaging in speculative trading, and only investing what they can afford to lose. Keeping funds in secure non-custodial wallets instead of exchanges can also prevent losses in case of hacks or bankruptcies. Staying informed about market trends and regulatory changes can help users react quickly and make better financial decisions.
It’s also important to remember that cryptocurrencies weren’t created just for speculation. The real value lies in their utility and autonomy. Instead of chasing price movements, users should focus on projects that offer them some real-world benefits. For example, Obyte has provided a resilient and fully decentralized crypto ecosystem since 2016. Its DAG-based platform eliminates middlemen like miners and “validators” while enabling smart contracts, conditional payments, customized tokens, self-sovereign ID, textcoins, chatbots, and more, making it a strong choice for those looking for the most resilient crypto ecosystems.

Originally Published on Hackernoon
#BlackSwan #CryptoCautions #BearishAlert #CryptoCrashAlert #Obyte
Meet the Cypherpunks: The Activists Behind Bitcoin and Decentralized MoneyThe digital world is growing, and surveillance is growing with it. Governments, companies, and even other individuals are now pretty capable of following our virtual steps —including the financial ones. That’s why a group of activists emerged in the late 20th century with a mission to safeguard individual liberties through the development of decentralized money.  These activists, known as cypherpunks, laid the groundwork for the creation and popularization of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The term "cypherpunk" is a blend of "cypher," referring to cryptography, and "punk," which reflects their rebellious and nonconformist nature. So, they’re mostly computer science and cryptography experts aiming to create new digital tools to foster privacy and social change. The movement gained momentum in the 1980s and 1990s as individuals concerned about the increasing surveillance and control of digital communications and transactions sought ways to counteract these trends. We can say it started with David Chaum, an American cryptographer who is widely recognized for inventing the first forms of digital cash —no, it wasn’t Satoshi Nakamoto alone.  A prolific mailing list The first Cypherpunk mailing list started in 1992 as an initiative by Eric Hughes, Timothy C. May, John Gilmore, and Judith Milhon. For more references, Hughes invented the first anonymous remailer (a server to increase privacy in emails), and May discovered the Alpha Strike issue in computer chips. Gilmore is one of the founders of the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) to defend digital rights. For her part, Milhon helped to create the first public computerized bulletin board system, besides being a writer and editor (she coined the “Cypherpunks” name).  Hughes, Gilmore, and May were the masked individuals in the cover of Wired, Feb 1993. Image by CryptoArtCulture In 1993, Hughes wrote and shared the Cypherpunk Manifesto, which describes the main purpose of the group and this kind of activism: “Privacy is necessary for an open society in the electronic age (…) We cannot expect governments, corporations, or other large, faceless organizations to grant us privacy (…) We must defend our own privacy if we expect to have any (…) Cypherpunks write code. We know that someone has to write software to defend privacy, and (…) we're going to write it.” The number of subscribers to the list (and, likely, to the movement) reached over 2,000 individuals by 1997. But this isn’t the reason why we’re stating that the mailing list was prolific. From this mailing list and this ideal came up numerous talented people that developed a diverse set of digital tools to fight for privacy.  To name a few of them: Julian Assange (WikiLeaks), Adam Back (Hashcash & Blockstream), Eric Blossom (GNU Radio Project), Phil Zimmermann (PGP Protocol), Bram Cohen (BitTorrent & Chia), Hal Finney (First Proof-of-Work), Nick Szabo (First Smart Contracts), Wei Dai (B-Money), Zooko Wilcox (Zcash), and, of course, Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin). Most of them are still alive and active in 2023. Before and after Bitcoin One of the most significant contributions of cypherpunks was their role in conceptualizing and promoting the idea of decentralized digital currencies. Influenced by the works of cryptographic pioneers like David Chaum, who introduced the concept of "e-cash," and Wei Dai, who proposed the idea of "b-money," cypherpunks envisioned a system where money could be transferred electronically without the need for intermediaries. This vision laid the foundation for the creation of Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency. As we mentioned above, Nakamoto didn’t do it all by themselves. The process was more like putting together puzzle pieces: Hal Finney’s PoW, some features from e-cash, Hashcash, and b-money, public-key cryptography by Ralph Merkle, and time-stamping by W.S. Stornetta and Stuart Haber.  Finally, in 2008, Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper. It describes a peer-to-peer electronic cash system that utilized cryptographic techniques to secure transactions and maintain a public ledger. The principles of decentralization, pseudonymity, and cryptographic security closely aligned with the cypherpunk ideals, making Bitcoin the first realization of their vision. Decentralization didn’t stop there though. Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) systems are the next step of decentralization. A DAG-based cryptosystem like Obyte doesn’t have miners or intermediaries at all. It doesn’t have blocks, either. Only Order Providers (OPs) whose transactions serve as waypoints for ordering everything else —but they don’t have other powers and aren’t needed to “accept” transactions, like Bitcoin miners. By eliminating such big power centers as miners, DAG achieves more even distribution of power than blockchains. Cypherpunks' visionary contributions formed the puzzle of cryptocurrency evolution. Bitcoin's whitepaper, embracing decentralization and cryptographic security, materialized cypherpunk ideals. As technology advances, DAG systems like Obyte emerge, furthering decentralization without middlemen.  --- Featured Vector Image by jcomp / Freepik Originally Published on Hackernoon #cypherpunks #Satoshi_Nakamoto #DecentralizedTrading $BTC #Obyte

Meet the Cypherpunks: The Activists Behind Bitcoin and Decentralized Money

The digital world is growing, and surveillance is growing with it. Governments, companies, and even other individuals are now pretty capable of following our virtual steps —including the financial ones. That’s why a group of activists emerged in the late 20th century with a mission to safeguard individual liberties through the development of decentralized money. 
These activists, known as cypherpunks, laid the groundwork for the creation and popularization of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The term "cypherpunk" is a blend of "cypher," referring to cryptography, and "punk," which reflects their rebellious and nonconformist nature. So, they’re mostly computer science and cryptography experts aiming to create new digital tools to foster privacy and social change.
The movement gained momentum in the 1980s and 1990s as individuals concerned about the increasing surveillance and control of digital communications and transactions sought ways to counteract these trends. We can say it started with David Chaum, an American cryptographer who is widely recognized for inventing the first forms of digital cash —no, it wasn’t Satoshi Nakamoto alone. 
A prolific mailing list
The first Cypherpunk mailing list started in 1992 as an initiative by Eric Hughes, Timothy C. May, John Gilmore, and Judith Milhon. For more references, Hughes invented the first anonymous remailer (a server to increase privacy in emails), and May discovered the Alpha Strike issue in computer chips. Gilmore is one of the founders of the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) to defend digital rights. For her part, Milhon helped to create the first public computerized bulletin board system, besides being a writer and editor (she coined the “Cypherpunks” name). 
Hughes, Gilmore, and May were the masked individuals in the cover of Wired, Feb 1993. Image by CryptoArtCulture

In 1993, Hughes wrote and shared the Cypherpunk Manifesto, which describes the main purpose of the group and this kind of activism:
“Privacy is necessary for an open society in the electronic age (…) We cannot expect governments, corporations, or other large, faceless organizations to grant us privacy (…) We must defend our own privacy if we expect to have any (…) Cypherpunks write code. We know that someone has to write software to defend privacy, and (…) we're going to write it.”
The number of subscribers to the list (and, likely, to the movement) reached over 2,000 individuals by 1997. But this isn’t the reason why we’re stating that the mailing list was prolific. From this mailing list and this ideal came up numerous talented people that developed a diverse set of digital tools to fight for privacy. 
To name a few of them: Julian Assange (WikiLeaks), Adam Back (Hashcash & Blockstream), Eric Blossom (GNU Radio Project), Phil Zimmermann (PGP Protocol), Bram Cohen (BitTorrent & Chia), Hal Finney (First Proof-of-Work), Nick Szabo (First Smart Contracts), Wei Dai (B-Money), Zooko Wilcox (Zcash), and, of course, Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin). Most of them are still alive and active in 2023.
Before and after Bitcoin
One of the most significant contributions of cypherpunks was their role in conceptualizing and promoting the idea of decentralized digital currencies. Influenced by the works of cryptographic pioneers like David Chaum, who introduced the concept of "e-cash," and Wei Dai, who proposed the idea of "b-money," cypherpunks envisioned a system where money could be transferred electronically without the need for intermediaries.

This vision laid the foundation for the creation of Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency. As we mentioned above, Nakamoto didn’t do it all by themselves. The process was more like putting together puzzle pieces: Hal Finney’s PoW, some features from e-cash, Hashcash, and b-money, public-key cryptography by Ralph Merkle, and time-stamping by W.S. Stornetta and Stuart Haber. 
Finally, in 2008, Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper. It describes a peer-to-peer electronic cash system that utilized cryptographic techniques to secure transactions and maintain a public ledger. The principles of decentralization, pseudonymity, and cryptographic security closely aligned with the cypherpunk ideals, making Bitcoin the first realization of their vision.
Decentralization didn’t stop there though. Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) systems are the next step of decentralization. A DAG-based cryptosystem like Obyte doesn’t have miners or intermediaries at all. It doesn’t have blocks, either. Only Order Providers (OPs) whose transactions serve as waypoints for ordering everything else —but they don’t have other powers and aren’t needed to “accept” transactions, like Bitcoin miners. By eliminating such big power centers as miners, DAG achieves more even distribution of power than blockchains.

Cypherpunks' visionary contributions formed the puzzle of cryptocurrency evolution. Bitcoin's whitepaper, embracing decentralization and cryptographic security, materialized cypherpunk ideals. As technology advances, DAG systems like Obyte emerge, furthering decentralization without middlemen. 

---

Featured Vector Image by jcomp / Freepik
Originally Published on Hackernoon

#cypherpunks #Satoshi_Nakamoto #DecentralizedTrading $BTC #Obyte
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