MacroMonday

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📅 Macro Monday - August 5, 2025

Is Bitcoin quietly hibernating before its next major move, or is it on the brink of a disastrous collapse?

That’s the burning question on every trader’s mind.

In his recent ‘Macro Monday’ livestream, veteran crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz delivered a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current state, highlighting the seasonal slowdown, ETF flows, futures markets, and broader macroeconomic threats. His insights suggest that Q4 could be the ultimate decider — a breakout or breakdown moment that separates survivors from bag-holders.

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🧊 August-September: Crypto’s Cold Season

According to Olszewicz, Bitcoin is following its historical trend of weak price performance during late summer. "This period—August and September—is almost always barren for Bitcoin," he said, referencing seasonal charts that show consistent underperformance during these months across multiple years.

He added:

> "We are in a seasonal weakening phase… it happens nearly every year. But that doesn’t mean the bull run is over."

So, is this just a pause—or the start of a crash?

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🚩 Cycle Peak or Calm Before the Storm?

At day 978 of the current bull cycle, many are wondering:

Has Bitcoin peaked?

Are we at the end of the road?

Or is the biggest rally still ahead?

Josh remains cautiously bullish:

> “I’m in the ‘maybe-not-ended’ camp… we’ll know more in Q4. That quarter will decide everything.”

📊 Technical indicators? Stable. 📉 Price action? Just a pullback. 🔥 Parabolic run-up? Still missing.

He explained that typical signs of market tops—like excessive leverage, overheating on-chain metrics, or euphoric sentiment—simply aren’t here yet.

So while the short-term outlook may seem dull, the long-term game is still in play.

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🥱 Momentum Weak, Bulls on Standby

Bitcoin recently broke out of a cup-and-handle formation, momentarily pushing toward the $122,000–$123,000 zone.

But... the excitement didn’t last.

Now trading below $120K, Olszewicz doubts it’ll return there soon:

> “If we don’t see buying pressure within two weeks, reclaiming $120K will be tough.”

The main wildcard?
📥 ETF capital inflows.

"Retail is tapped out," he noted. "We need ETF flows—either through short squeezes, monthly rebalancing, or opportunistic buys on dips."

In other words, institutions must carry the torch.

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📉 Futures Market Shows Signs of Exhaustion

Futures data is flashing warning signs.

> "BTC’s premium is now below 7%, ETH below 8%, and SOL dropped from 35% to 15%," Josh noted.

This means the speculative appetite is vanishing. When the futures premium collapses, it’s often a sign that smart money is stepping back, and risk-taking is slowing down.

🧠 On-chain metrics agree:
📉 Declining MVRV ratios and low unrealized profits suggest investors are no longer in “moon mode.”

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🎯 Q4: The Make-or-Break Quarter

So what could revive Bitcoin in Q4?

Josh listed three potential catalysts:

1. 🏦 Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

2. 📉 Weakening USD or Fed independence

3. 🌪️ Seasonal strength or macroeconomic shocks

But he warned:

> “If you’re using 50x leverage after a big cycle gain... think again. This isn’t the time for reckless risk.”

With ETF flows stagnant, liquidity drying, and speculators on pause, October to December becomes the most crucial test of Bitcoin's resilience.

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🏛️ Macroeconomic Madness: The Hidden Threat

Even outside of crypto, the macro picture is shaky:

📈 Inflation (Trueflation) is still low at 1.65%, but tariffs starting August 1 could spike it.

📊 PCE index is heading the wrong way.

🧮 Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows sluggish 2.1% growth.

Labor market signals are flashing amber:

> "The real unemployment rate could hit 4.9%,” Josh warned, especially in manufacturing-heavy Rust Belt states.

Add to that the gradual disappearance of the $2T Fed reverse repo support, and we may see sudden liquidity shocks unless the Fed steps in.

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🚀 Bitcoin ETFs: The Real Game Changer

Despite all the concerns, Josh says there’s one reason for long-term hope:

👉 Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

> “That’s the real difference-maker,” he said.
“The approvals are in. Trading has started. And the cash flow impact? Massive.”

Even if short-term sentiment is cold, the institutional infrastructure is being built. And when the next macro tailwind arrives, this foundation could fuel a massive run.

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💤 Conclusion: Bitcoin is Sleeping, Not Dead

So, what’s the final verdict?

📉 The short term looks dull.
📈 The cycle hasn’t peaked.
🎯 Q4 is the deciding battlefield.

Josh ended his session with a simple but powerful takeaway:

> “This cycle may not be over… It’s just sleeping. Q4 will tell us if it wakes up — or dies.”

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⚠️ Pro Tip for Traders:

If you’ve made profits this cycle, now might be the time to reduce leverage, stay nimble, and avoid overtrading.
📉 Markets are cooling.
🧠 Smart money is observing.
⏳ And Q4 is right around the corner.

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🔔 Stay alert. Stay patient. The real move is coming — or maybe, already quietly building.

#Bitcoin #BTCanalysis #MacroMonday #CryptoNews $BTC

🌕📉📊💤💥📈🧠🔥

Every time the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets, the financial world holds its breath — and so should you if you're in crypto.

📌 What Is the FOMC?
The FOMC is the decision-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. They meet 8 times a year to decide interest rates and set the tone for the U.S. economy.
But wait — you’re into $BTC Bitcoin, $ETH Ethereum, $BNB BNB... so why should it matter?
Because these decisions shake all markets, including crypto.

📉 How FOMC Meetings Impact Crypto?
Interest Rate Hikes = Market DownWhen the Fed raises rates, it becomes expensive to borrow money.Investors pull out of risky assets — and yes, that includes crypto.Expect short-term dips in BTC, ETH, altcoins.Rate Cuts or Pause = Bullish MomentumCheaper borrowing = more liquidity = money flows into crypto.Often seen as buy-the-dip opportunities.DXY Movement = BTC OppositeStronger dollar? BTC usually weakens.FOMC decisions impact the DXY (US Dollar Index), which is inversely correlated with Bitcoin.

🧠 What Smart Traders Do:
Don’t trade before the meeting. Volatility is wild.Watch the press release & Powell's speech. Tone matters as much as numbers.Position after market reaction. Markets often overreact first, correct later.

🔥 Why You Should Stay Updated:
If you’re on Binance for:
Spot trading ✅Futures ✅Holding long-term ✅
You must follow FOMC updates. They are macro signals for Bitcoin cycles.

✅ Final Thoughts
Whether you're a degen trader or a long-term HODLer, FOMC = Big Moves.
Crypto doesn't live in a bubble. It breathes with the global economy — and FOMC holds the oxygen.

#Bitcoin #ETH