Bitcoin Issues First 'Bottom Signal' in 8 Months, Is Miner Capitulation Over and a New Bull Market About to Begin?
Recently, Bitcoin's Hash Ribbon indicator has shown 'buy' for the first time since July 2024, which may herald the arrival of a Bitcoin bull market. This has excited many Bitcoin traders, as this indicator is one of the important references for Bitcoin prices.
The Hash Ribbon is a tool created by Capriole Investments to track the profitability of Bitcoin miners. When miners' profitability is at risk and network participants exit, it creates a 'capitulation', which often indicates a long-term price reversal. This tool monitors these changes through two moving averages of hash rates (30-day and 60-day). A buy signal is formed when the 30-day hash rate average crosses above the 60-day average.
According to data from TradingView, the Hash Ribbon issued its latest buy signal on March 25, which can be observed in both daily and weekly time frames.
The market response has been quite enthusiastic, with several senior traders expressing optimism about the future. Trader Titan directly stated, 'This is a macro bullish signal', while Robert Mercer predicted, 'Bitcoin will break $100,000 in the second quarter'.
Historical data also supports this optimistic expectation, as the last similar signal occurred in August 2023, after which Bitcoin initiated a significant upward trend.
Another positive signal comes from the technical indicator RSI (Relative Strength Index). The weekly RSI has shown bullish divergence for the first time since last September, and the daily RSI has successfully broken through the descending trend line formed since last November.
Analyst Rekt Capital even confirmed: 'The months-long downtrend in RSI has ended.' These improvements in technical aspects, combined with reduced pressure on miners, create favorable conditions for a rebound in Bitcoin prices.
However, investors also need to remain rational. Although the current signals are positive, there is still uncertainty in the market. For example, Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter of this year was far below many expectations, indicating that technical indicators alone cannot fully predict market trends. Nevertheless, for long-term holders, this is undoubtedly a positive signal worth paying attention to.
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