ELECTION

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s worth examining how past elections have influenced Bitcoin’s price. Historically, the U.S. stock market has shown notable trends around election periods. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and, most notably, the S&P 500, these trends could offer insights into what might happen next.
🔸 S&P 500 Correlation
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have historically held a strong correlation, particularly during BTC’s bull cycles and periods of a risk-on sentiment throughout traditional markets. This could phenomenon could potentially come to an end as Bitcoin matures and ‘decouples’ from equities and it’s narrative as a speculative asset. However there’s no evidence yet that this is the case.

🔸 Post Election Outperformance
The S&P 500 has typically reacted positively following U.S. presidential elections. This pattern has been consistent over the past few decades, with the stock market often experiencing significant gains in the year following an election. In the S&P500 vs Bitcoin YoY Change chart we can see when elections occur (orange circles), and the price action of BTC (black line) and the S&P 500 (blue line) in the months that follow.

2012 Election: In November 2012, the S&P 500 saw 11% year-on-year growth. A year later, this growth surged to around 32%, reflecting a strong post-election market rally.
2016 Election: In November 2016, the S&P 500 was up by about 7% year-on-year. A year later, it had increased by approximately 22%, again showing a substantial post-election boost.
2020 Election: The pattern continued in 2020. The S&P 500’s growth was around 17-18% in November 2020; by the following year, it had climbed to nearly 29%.
🔸 A Recent Phenomenon?
This isn’t limited to the previous three elections while Bitcoin existed. To get a larger data set, we can look at the previous four decades, or ten elections, of S&P 500 returns. Only one year had negative returns twelve months following election day (2000, as the dot-com bubble burst).

Historical data suggests that whether Republican or Democrat, the winning party doesn't significantly impact these positive market trends. Instead, the upward momentum is more about resolving uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.
🔸 How Will Bitcoin React This Time
As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it's tempting to speculate on Bitcoin's potential performance. If historical trends hold, we could see significant price increases. For example:
If we experience the same percentage gains in the 365 days following the election as we did in 2012, Bitcoin's price could rise to $1,000,000 or more. If we experience the same as the 2016 election, we could climb to around $500,000, and something similar to 2020 could see a $250,000 BTC.
It's interesting to note that each occurrence has resulted in returns decreasing by about 50% each time, so maybe $125,000 is a realistic target for November 2025, especially as that price and data align with the middle bands of the Rainbow Price Chart. It’s also worth noting that in all of those cycles, Bitcoin actually went on to experience even higher cycle peak gains!

#BTC #Bitcoin #election

The process of voting, a cornerstone of democracy, has undergone significant changes throughout history. Here is an overview of how voting systems have evolved, from ancient Greece to modern systems used in the United States:

Voting in Ancient Times: The Origins of Democracy
The earliest examples of democracy are found in Ancient Greece around 508 B.C. In Greece, a "negative" voting system was practiced; only male landowners could participate, and each year, they would vote to exile the leaders they most disliked. Voters would write their choice on broken pottery pieces, called ostraka. If a leader received more than 6,000 votes, they were exiled for ten years.

Medieval Venice and Approval Voting
In the 13th century, Venice used "approval voting" to elect leaders. Voters would cast a vote for each candidate they found acceptable, and the candidate with the most support was elected. This system aimed to select leaders based on majority approval, an early democratic principle.

Key Milestones in U.S. Voting Rights
Throughout U.S. history, voting rights have expanded. Initially, only white men over 21 could vote, but the following milestones changed this:
- Black Suffrage (13th-15th Amendments): After the Civil War, these amendments abolished slavery and granted African Americans the right to vote. However, discriminatory practices prevented many from voting until the 1960s Voting Rights Act.
- Direct Election of Senators (17th Amendment): In 1913, citizens gained the right to elect senators directly.
- Women’s Suffrage (19th Amendment): In 1920, women earned the right to vote after a long campaign.
- Lowering the Voting Age to 18 (26th Amendment): Amid the Vietnam War in 1971, the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18.

Different Voting Systems Worldwide
While the U.S. uses a "first-past-the-post" system, other countries employ various systems:
- Parliamentary System: Countries like the U.K., Japan, and Australia use this system, where seats are allocated based on party votes, supporting multi-party representation.
- Instant Run-off Voting (IRV): In this system, voters rank candidates by preference. If a voter’s top choice loses, their vote moves to their second choice. Used in several U.S. cities and other countries, it reduces the "spoiler effect."
- Fusion Voting: Common in New York, this system allows candidates to run under multiple party labels, encouraging third-party participation.

Modern Voting Technology: Accessibility and Transparency
The 2000 U.S. presidential election led to the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), which standardized voting practices and equipment to ensure fair and accessible elections. This law also provides voters with the right to cast provisional ballots and helps prevent erroneous removals from voter lists.

#election #Vote #USAElection #Trump #Harris
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