Not the Zone from Tarkovsky, though some days it feels just as cryptic. The price is technically in support territory between 102.5k and 103.5k, but the timing still feels premature. Whatās holding me back is open interest, which tracks the number of active derivative contracts in the market. It has started to decline, but not enough to suggest that excessive leverage has truly been cleared. When price falls and open interest stays flat or only slightly drops, it usually means positions are still loaded. In this context, many of those are likely long positions that havenāt been flushed, and that puts pressure on any short-term recovery.
At the same time, liquidation volume has already surged, which might look like a bottoming signal. But without a clear capitulation in positioning, these early bounces are often unreliable. If 103k doesnāt hold, the structure underneath thins out fast, and deeper continuation becomes likely. Iām watching from the screen, not entering yet. This is not about catching a dip, itās about understanding when the market has genuinely reset. And so far, it hasnāt.
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