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Strategy: Trend + Pullback + Confirmation Candle

Central Idea: Trade in favor of the trend after a pullback to a “good” zone and only enter when a Japanese confirmation candle validates it.

1) Setup
• Time Frames: H1 or H4 (cleaner learning). Daily if you want less noise.
• Minimum Indicators:
• EMA 50 and EMA 200 (trend and dynamic “zone”).
• ATR(14) (to measure the stop).
• (Optional) RSI(14) for confluence, not for hard signals.
• Markets: any with good liquidity (majors FX, indices, gold, BTC).

2) Define the Trend
• Bullish: EMA50 above EMA200 and price mostly closing above EMA50.
• Bearish: EMA50 below EMA200 and price mostly closing below EMA50.
If there is no clarity (intertwined EMAs), do not trade.

3) Draw Zones
• Mark recent swing supports/resistances.
• The EMA50 often acts as a “band” of pullback in a healthy trend.

4) Wait for the Pullback
• In bullish: wait for the price to pull back to the zone (S/R + EMA50).
• In bearish: the same but towards resistances and EMA50 above.

5) Accepted Candle Patterns (Confirmation)

Use one (maximum two) patterns to avoid over-optimizing:
• Engulfing (bullish/bearish) — body that “eats” the previous one.
• Hammer / Pin bar (long tail against the pullback trend, close near the extreme)
• Morning / Evening Star (3 candles, clear reversal).
• Inside bar with a breakout in the direction of the trend.

Practical rule: the body of the signal candle must be clear and decisive; if it is a weak doji, don’t.

Step-by-step arithmetic example:
• Capital = $1,000
• Risk = 1% ⇒ $10
• Stop = 20 pips
• Value per pip for 0.01 lots = $0.10
• Denominator = 20 × 0.10 = 2.00
• Lots = 10 / 2.00 = 0.05 (5 micro lots)
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