BTC趋势分析

As the market gradually digests last week's major news and data, we have seen the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum fluctuate in a narrow range, showing the market's hesitation near key support levels. From the 4-hour chart, BTC found short-term support at the 62,000 level, but the MACD indicator shows weakening upward momentum, while the KDJ indicator hovers near the midline, suggesting possible market uncertainty and upcoming volatility.

Against this backdrop, we may see prices continue to explore lower levels in the short term, looking for more solid support points. If the recent lows are broken, the next important support level may be around 59,000, which will be the short-term target for bears. Meanwhile, Ethereum also shows a similar pattern, with support around 2,600, and any further decline may push towards the 2,550 level.

Therefore, for tonight's trading strategy, it is recommended to observe whether there are signs of further declines near the current levels of BTC and ETH. If so, consider moderate shorting, with targets at 59,000 and 2,550 respectively. However, given the unpredictability of the market, it is recommended to set a strict stop loss and keep an eye on breaking news and changes in market sentiment.
#btc趋势分析

Survival Rules in the Cryptocurrency World: 9 Mathematical Truths from Heavy Losses to Stable Profits
Core Understanding
Trading is not gambling; it is a game of probability and risk management.
The following 9 rules determine whether you ultimately "get rich quickly" or "face liquidation".
1. The damage from losses > the gains from profits
1 million → +100% → 2 million → -50% → 1 million
Insight: Controlling drawdowns is more important than profits; single trade risk should not exceed 2%.
2. Asymmetry of price movements
1 million → +10% → 1.1 million → -10% → 990,000
Insight: Frequent chasing of rising and falling prices is bound to incur losses; wait for high-certainty opportunities.
3. Volatility erodes long-term returns
Three-year return: +40%, -20%, +40% → Annualized only 5.83%
Insight: Steady compound interest > big ups and downs; reducing leverage is key.
4. The deadly temptation of "1% per day"
1 million at 1% daily, 250 days → 12.03 million, 500 days → 145 million
Reality: 99.9% of people face liquidation due to pursuit of high-frequency trading.
5. The illusion of continuous high returns
5 years of 200% each year → 1 million → 243 million
Truth: The market is unpredictable; drawdown management is the core ability.
6. The real wealth secret: compound interest
Annualized 25.89% → 10 years 10 times, 20 years 100 times, 30 years 1000 times
Strategy: Focus on the main upward trend in bull markets, and maintain low positions in bear markets.
7. The cost trap of averaging down
Buy 10,000 at 10, add 10,000 at 5 → Cost 6.67, not 7.5
Correct practice: Average down only when the gap ≥20% to avoid exhausting ammunition too early.
8. The hidden risk of "profits running away"
Sell 90% after a 10% profit, cost returns to zero ≠ risk returns to zero
If it drops 50%, you will still incur losses; dynamic profit-taking is necessary rather than blindly locking in positions.
9. The most stable asset allocation
80% low risk (annualized 5%) + 20% high risk
Worst case is break-even, best annualized 12%+, suitable for long-term holders.
Ultimate Advice
"The secret to making money in the cryptocurrency world is not predicting the market, but controlling yourself."

📌【#Introduction to Trading Types】

📊 How to read the BTC daily chart? How can beginners judge trends?

Many newcomers often ask: "The chart is so complicated, how should I read it? How do I judge if it goes up or down?" Today, using BTC/USDC as an example, let's learn about the most basic trend analysis methods👇

⸻

🔍 Understand BTC's current trend at a glance (2025.6.6)

✅ Trend Line:
BTC has retreated from its high point of 111,999 and is currently operating below the middle Bollinger band, indicating a bearish consolidation phase.

✅ Moving Average System:
The short-term MA5 has crossed below MA10, creating a "death cross" signal—indicating that short-term downward momentum is increasing.

✅ RSI Indicator:
The current RSI is 38.1, close to the "oversold" edge; it is not advisable to blindly short, and one should patiently observe whether a rebound forms.

✅ MACD Indicator:
MACD death cross + green bars increasing = the trend remains weak, and there is no strong reversal signal yet.

⸻

💡 Beginner's Suggestions (Applicable to all cryptocurrencies)

1️⃣ Look at the trend → Is it in an uptrend or downtrend channel?
2️⃣ Look at the position → Is the price above the moving averages or the middle Bollinger band?
3️⃣ Look for signals → Are there "death crosses," "increased volume," or "divergences" present?

⸻

📚 Summary in one sentence:

The most important aspect of trend trading is: to see the right direction, control the pace, and wait for confirmation.

⸻

#binancecreator #交易类型入门 #新手入门 #BTC趋势分析