风险资产
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📈This week, the global investment market was in turmoil, with China's stimulus measures and the Fed's rate cut becoming the main drivers! 🚀
This week, the risk asset market was in jubilation, driven by the economic stimulus measures launched by the People's Bank of China and the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut.
In Japan, the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's criticism of the ultra-loose monetary policy has given the market new expectations for the Bank of Japan's low interest rate stance, and has also added a touch of color to the global financial landscape.
The US core personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) in August was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%. This has fueled the market's expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. The current probability of November is 53.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 46.7%.
After the above inflation index data were released, the Dow Jones Index soared, climbing 137.89 points to $42,313.01, setting a record high!
Next week, all eyes will be on the upcoming labor market indicators, including JOLT, ADP, and the US unemployment rate. If these indicators perform strongly, the case for a 50 basis point rate cut in November will be more compelling, which may further drive risk assets up.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is not to be outdone. SosoValue data shows that BTC ETFs have seen a sharp increase in inflows this week, reaching $494 million at the close of Friday. Although ETH ETFs have not seen much inflows, they have also rebounded at the close of Friday, with inflows of $58.65 million. ETH's implied volatility is still 7.74% higher than BTC, but the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains stable above the 0.04 mark.
🧐 View:
Although risk assets have had a strong start in the fourth quarter, there is reason to be optimistic about the next quarter. View expects that the market's upside potential will be further released, especially those areas with high return potential are worthy of our close attention and investment.
👇 What do you think of this wave of gains in global markets? Can the Fed’s rate cuts and China’s stimulus measures continue to drive the market higher? Can the cryptocurrency market continue to follow this trend? Leave your views in the comments!
#全球市场 #风险资产 #降息 #投资
This week, the risk asset market was in jubilation, driven by the economic stimulus measures launched by the People's Bank of China and the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut.
In Japan, the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's criticism of the ultra-loose monetary policy has given the market new expectations for the Bank of Japan's low interest rate stance, and has also added a touch of color to the global financial landscape.
The US core personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) in August was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%. This has fueled the market's expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. The current probability of November is 53.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 46.7%.
After the above inflation index data were released, the Dow Jones Index soared, climbing 137.89 points to $42,313.01, setting a record high!
Next week, all eyes will be on the upcoming labor market indicators, including JOLT, ADP, and the US unemployment rate. If these indicators perform strongly, the case for a 50 basis point rate cut in November will be more compelling, which may further drive risk assets up.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is not to be outdone. SosoValue data shows that BTC ETFs have seen a sharp increase in inflows this week, reaching $494 million at the close of Friday. Although ETH ETFs have not seen much inflows, they have also rebounded at the close of Friday, with inflows of $58.65 million. ETH's implied volatility is still 7.74% higher than BTC, but the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains stable above the 0.04 mark.
🧐 View:
Although risk assets have had a strong start in the fourth quarter, there is reason to be optimistic about the next quarter. View expects that the market's upside potential will be further released, especially those areas with high return potential are worthy of our close attention and investment.
👇 What do you think of this wave of gains in global markets? Can the Fed’s rate cuts and China’s stimulus measures continue to drive the market higher? Can the cryptocurrency market continue to follow this trend? Leave your views in the comments!
#全球市场 #风险资产 #降息 #投资
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Trump and rate cut trades are over-bet
After the Trump-Trump incident led to a sharp rise in expectations of his victory in the US presidential election, the "Trump trade" that followed is stirring up the US market. The so-called "Trump trade" refers to the trading actions taken by investors to bet on Trump's victory in the US presidential election and predict the future market trend based on this. The current consensus among market investors is that Trump will further relax market supervision and strengthen trade protectionism in his second term. From the perspective of the stock market, Trump's policy tendencies are beneficial to bank stocks, energy stocks, and healthcare stocks; in the bond market, investors are worried about the continued high inflation in the United States and the rise in long-term Treasury yields; in the field of cryptocurrency, due to the frequent goodwill of Trump and his deputy Vance, the expectation of US dollar depreciation has risen, and investors regard it as a tool to fight inflation and currency depreciation.
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Financial Focus in 2024: The US dollar index fell to a new low, and Bitcoin may become a new favorite investment
On Wednesday, following the release of the latest meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC), Bitcoin (BTC) prices rebounded strongly, successfully crossing the important psychological level of $61,000, and once again became the center of heated discussion among investors and market analysts. This jump in price is not only impressive, it has also reignited widespread interest in the cryptocurrency, especially with current global liquidity conditions having a significant impact on the value of Bitcoin.
In addition, the close relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar index (DXY) has also become a focus of discussion. As an indicator of the strength of the US dollar relative to a basket of currencies, the fluctuations of DXY have a profound impact on crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that when the US dollar shows signs of weakness, investors tend to transfer funds to alternative assets such as Bitcoin as a hedging tool, and this trend is becoming more and more obvious in the current market dynamics.
In addition, the close relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar index (DXY) has also become a focus of discussion. As an indicator of the strength of the US dollar relative to a basket of currencies, the fluctuations of DXY have a profound impact on crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Historical experience shows that when the US dollar shows signs of weakness, investors tend to transfer funds to alternative assets such as Bitcoin as a hedging tool, and this trend is becoming more and more obvious in the current market dynamics.
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₿ Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Now Resembles a Risk Asset, Its Store of Value Function is Diminishing! 💰
Bitfinex's analysis report states that Bitcoin has been consolidating between $91,000 and $102,000 for 75 days. This indicates that Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing and its maturity is increasing, but it now resembles a risk asset more than the commonly referred to "digital gold".
The recent consolidation of Bitcoin is actually reflecting changes in the macroeconomic landscape. For example, when U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, Bitcoin reacted accordingly. However, its correlation with traditional stocks has not changed. Bitcoin's market capitalization is now nearly $2 trillion, surpassing major assets like silver, Saudi Aramco, and Meta, indicating that Bitcoin's influence in global finance is growing.
The report also mentions that although Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating, its actual volatility has decreased, suggesting it remains relatively stable amid short-term fluctuations, and highlights its significant role in the changes of the global macroeconomic environment. As of today, Bitcoin's price is $95,175, continuing the downward trend that started in late January and struggling to break through $100,000.
Bitfinex has also found that Bitcoin's market performance has become increasingly correlated with the S&P 500 index, while its correlation with gold has decreased. This indicates that Bitcoin now resembles traditional stocks more than previously regarded as a store of value tool.
Although Bitcoin has risen by 3.5% this year, gold has performed better, increasing by 9%, and has set a historical high of $2,880 per ounce. Therefore, Bitfinex's analysis suggests that gold is now perceived as a more mature store of value compared to Bitcoin.
In summary, this change actually reflects a shift in the market's perception of cryptocurrencies. This may imply that Bitcoin's future trends will be more influenced by the global economic situation and policy changes rather than mere market speculation. Therefore, investors should be cautious and manage risks effectively when making related decisions!
💬 What do you think? Do you believe Bitcoin will continue to act as a safe-haven asset like gold, or will it completely transform into a high-risk investment tool? See you in the comments!
#比特币 #BTC #加密货币 #市场分析 #风险资产
Bitfinex's analysis report states that Bitcoin has been consolidating between $91,000 and $102,000 for 75 days. This indicates that Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing and its maturity is increasing, but it now resembles a risk asset more than the commonly referred to "digital gold".
The recent consolidation of Bitcoin is actually reflecting changes in the macroeconomic landscape. For example, when U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, Bitcoin reacted accordingly. However, its correlation with traditional stocks has not changed. Bitcoin's market capitalization is now nearly $2 trillion, surpassing major assets like silver, Saudi Aramco, and Meta, indicating that Bitcoin's influence in global finance is growing.
The report also mentions that although Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating, its actual volatility has decreased, suggesting it remains relatively stable amid short-term fluctuations, and highlights its significant role in the changes of the global macroeconomic environment. As of today, Bitcoin's price is $95,175, continuing the downward trend that started in late January and struggling to break through $100,000.
Bitfinex has also found that Bitcoin's market performance has become increasingly correlated with the S&P 500 index, while its correlation with gold has decreased. This indicates that Bitcoin now resembles traditional stocks more than previously regarded as a store of value tool.
Although Bitcoin has risen by 3.5% this year, gold has performed better, increasing by 9%, and has set a historical high of $2,880 per ounce. Therefore, Bitfinex's analysis suggests that gold is now perceived as a more mature store of value compared to Bitcoin.
In summary, this change actually reflects a shift in the market's perception of cryptocurrencies. This may imply that Bitcoin's future trends will be more influenced by the global economic situation and policy changes rather than mere market speculation. Therefore, investors should be cautious and manage risks effectively when making related decisions!
💬 What do you think? Do you believe Bitcoin will continue to act as a safe-haven asset like gold, or will it completely transform into a high-risk investment tool? See you in the comments!
#比特币 #BTC #加密货币 #市场分析 #风险资产
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