美联储降息！泼天的富贵，走势兑现，消息面相对滞后，结构面永远领先消息面~

The "horror data" and initial jobless claims will be released tonight. On August 15, the "horror data" of the US July retail sales data and weekly initial jobless claims data will be released at 20:30 tonight. The obstacles to the Fed's September rate cut have been cleared, and the US CPI returned to the "2-digit" overnight. The market has reduced but still has not ruled out a 50 basis point rate cut bet. Can tonight's data provide more guidance? #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储降息！泼天的富贵，走势兑现，消息面相对滞后，结构面永远领先消息面~

【Regarding the Federal Reserve's Decision on Interest Rate Cuts in 2025】

The current market has fully anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, a expectation that reflects the market's high concern for the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy direction. However, recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes and official statements indicate that the path for interest rate cuts in 2025 may not be as clear and aggressive as the market expects. According to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from December 2024, officials expect only two interest rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points. This adjustment in expectation is based on the Federal Reserve's cautious consideration of inflation pressures and economic data.

First, although the U.S. economy has shown some resilience in 2024, the pace of inflation decline is still slower than expected, which makes the Federal Reserve more cautious in its interest rate decisions. Additionally, the policies of newly elected President Trump may further drive inflation, which requires the Federal Reserve to weigh its decisions more carefully.

Second, the adjustment in market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has triggered volatility in global financial markets. U.S. stocks have experienced significant fluctuations under the expectation of rate cuts, while U.S. Treasury yields have shown a complex trend due to the dual effects of rate cut expectations and inflation concerns. Furthermore, the exchange rate of the dollar and gold prices have also fluctuated due to changes in market expectations regarding the pace of rate cuts.

In this context, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan for 2025 appears more strategic and flexible. Its decisions will increasingly depend on the performance of economic data, especially changes in inflation and the job market. This means that although the market anticipates three rate cuts, the actual number and pace of cuts still carry uncertainty, and investors need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy signals and the dynamic changes in economic data.

Overall, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan for 2025 is not only a response to economic conditions but also a reflection of the need for policy flexibility in the context of increasing global economic uncertainty.
#美联储降息 #美联储降息！泼天的富贵，走势兑现，消息面相对滞后，结构面永远领先消息面~

In the second half of the year, the Fed's macroeconomic policy can basically be summarized as "wait and see", but this is actually a well-thought-out strategy.
According to Nick Timiraos' analysis, the Fed's current attitude is "we are not in a hurry." In the past few months, the Fed has been evaluating economic data to see if it needs to continue raising interest rates (Fox Business) (Fox Business). Although their previous interest rate hikes did help to suppress inflation, they also brought some side effects, such as market instability and rising borrowing costs.
Timiraos pointed out that the Fed is now basically unanimous in its strategy of "watch first and then act." This "wait-and-see" strategy is not because they are lazy, but because they think the most important thing now is to stabilize the economy and prevent it from experiencing big ups and downs (Fox Business). After all, overly aggressive interest rate hikes may suppress economic growth, while not raising interest rates may cause inflation to return.
Judging from the data, the US economic performance is somewhat mixed. On the one hand, the unemployment rate remains at a low level and economic activity is slowly picking up; on the other hand, although inflation has eased, it has not yet fully reached the target level. At the same time, global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks have also made the Fed more cautious (Fox Business).
So, on the whole, the Fed may continue to maintain the current interest rate level in the second half of the year and wait for more data to make further decisions. For investors and the market, this means that the Fed will not suddenly take extreme measures, and the market will have a relatively stable expectation environment. Although this strategy sounds conservative, in the current complex economic environment, stability may be the wisest choice.
In general, the Fed is now playing a game of "don't make mistakes". They hope to give the market and the economy more time and space through prudent policies to see what will happen next. This wait-and-see and cautious attitude may be what is most needed in the current economic environment.

$BTC #币安合约锦标赛 #美联储降息！泼天的富贵，走势兑现，消息面相对滞后，结构面永远领先消息面~

"Gao Shan Shuo Mao"-Analysis of today's morning trading discussion 03.21#美联储降息！泼天的富贵，走势兑现，消息面相对滞后，结构面永远领先消息面~

Falling is an opportunity. When the opportunity comes, you must seize it. Pay attention to the live broadcast room at noon on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and enjoy the wealth password~#ETH #BTC