经济分析

The Fed has not cut interest rates for a long time. Does it have any trump cards to play?
🔍📉

Americans' consumption habits are the biggest confidence of the Fed. Even if the CPI remains above 3%, consumption remains strong. However, whether this abnormal consumption pattern can continue in the long run is worrying. The recent increase in consumer loan defaults is accumulating risks.

The Fed faces a dilemma: cutting interest rates may trigger a surge in inflation, while not cutting interest rates will slow economic growth and exacerbate debt problems. The current market generally expects that the Fed may end its balance sheet reduction in the third quarter and cut interest rates in the fourth quarter. The Fed will not let the market easily predict the time of the interest rate cut to prevent the market from reacting in advance.

Conclusion: In the next few months, the Fed's decision will have a significant impact on the market. Investors should pay attention to consumption data and the Fed's policy trends and adjust their investment strategies.

#美联储 #降息放水 #消费市场 #经济分析

🔍 Interpretation of U.S. Economic Data: Potential Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Job market conditions
• Initial jobless claims rise slightly
• The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits increased slightly.
👉 The job market cooled slightly but has not yet shown serious deterioration

2. Economic activities
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell significantly
👉 Economic growth may slow down

Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets:
📉 Short term: The market may fluctuate
• Risk aversion may increase and Bitcoin may benefit
• High-risk crypto assets may come under pressure

📈 Long term: If the economy continues to be weak
• Fed may shift to easing policy
• Could drive overall cryptocurrency market gains

Analysis of the possibility of U.S. economic recession:
🟠 Warning signs:
• Job market cools slightly
• Economic activity index fell sharply
🟢 Positive factors:
• The job market overall remains relatively stable
• Single data is not enough to judge the overall direction of the economy

in conclusion:
• Current data shows signs of slowing, but has not yet reached recession levels
• Pay close attention to follow-up data, especially GDP, inflation rate and more employment data
• Crypto market investors should remain vigilant and manage risks well

How do you think these economic data will impact cryptocurrency investment strategies? 🤔
$BTC $ETH

#加密货币 #经济分析 #投资策略

$PEPE
♣️Hi everyone, I'm A10JQK. Today I'll bring you the latest news on US employment data and Fed policy trends.

🃏On October 4, the US Department of Labor released its September employment report, which showed that job growth accelerated, which may reduce the possibility of the Fed's sharp interest rate cuts at the remaining two meetings this year.

♠️Specific data showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding expectations. In addition, the August data was revised to show an increase of 159,000, which was also higher than the previously announced figures.

♥️Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently refuted investors' expectations of another 50 basis point rate cut in November. He said, "This committee does not feel that it is in a hurry to cut interest rates quickly."

♦️These data and remarks suggest that the Fed may continue to be cautious despite market expectations of rate cuts. Strong employment data means that the economy remains resilient, which may prevent the Fed from rushing to cut interest rates until inflation is fully under control.

For the cryptocurrency market, the Fed's policy direction often has an important impact. If interest rates remain high, it may continue to suppress the attractiveness of risky assets. Investors need to pay close attention to future economic data and speeches by Fed officials to assess potential policy changes.

#美联储政策 #就业数据 #经济分析 #加密货币市场

📉 EY Chief Economist: The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut is "reactive" rather than "forward-looking"

EY's chief economist Gregory Daco recently made an interesting point: he believes that the Fed's recent rate cut is more of a "reactive" move than a result based on forward-looking analysis.

He mentioned that Fed Chairman Powell himself said that if he had seen the July employment data earlier, he might have chosen to cut interest rates in July. But in fact, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% after the July meeting, which made many people feel that the Fed dragged on too long and finally took action this month.

Daco also emphasized that the Fed needs to establish a stronger forward-looking framework rather than relying solely on data analysis. Therefore, he believes that it seems that the Fed's decision-making power in this regard needs to be improved. He also pointed out that Wall Street's expectations for the number of subsequent rate cuts are far greater than the decisions of Fed policymakers, which will have a greater impact on the market.

On the other hand, Fed policymakers this week expected two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2024, and four more rate cuts by 2025.

It is worth noting that there are also differences of opinion within the Fed on the issue of the expected number of additional rate cuts this year. Seven policymakers support another 25 basis point rate cut before the end of the year, nine members support an additional 50 basis point rate cut, and two policymakers support no more rate cuts.

💬 Finally, do you think the Fed's rate cut strategy is reactive or forward-looking? What do you think of the difference between Wall Street and the Fed in their expectations for rate cuts? See you in the comments!

#美联储降息 #经济分析 #市场动态

🌪️ The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. What do presidential candidates think?

The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut early this morning, the first rate cut since 2022. This decision has caused widespread discussion and different interpretations in the financial market.

Trump's point of view: Former US President Trump said that if the Fed's actions are not politically motivated, then this large interest rate cut may mean that the economic situation is more severe than the public knows. He believes that the 50 basis point interest rate cut is a strong signal that the economy may be facing major challenges.

Harris's view: Contrary to Trump's concerns, US Vice President Harris previously believed that this rate cut is positive news for ordinary Americans and may bring some economic relief.

🗣️ Investment market view:

In the heated discussion about this interest rate cut, we can see two very different views in the investment market.

On the one hand, there is a view that this rate cut is a clear sign of economic weakness and that economic activity needs to be stimulated by reducing borrowing costs. This may lead consumers and businesses to reduce spending and investment because the future economic outlook is uncertain. At the same time, this may also trigger market concerns about economic recession and affect investor confidence.

On the other hand, other views believe that this may be a preventive measure taken to support economic growth and consumer confidence, which can effectively avoid overheating or overcooling of the economy and maintain steady economic growth.

This preventive rate cut may enhance the confidence of consumers and businesses because it shows the Fed's decision to actively manage the economy. In addition, this may also encourage more investment and consumption because borrowing costs are reduced.

💬 We want to hear your opinions:

·  Are you more inclined to Trump's concerns or Harris's optimism? What do you think is the real reason behind the Fed's decision to cut interest rates? Does this rate cut have any impact on your financial planning?

Leave your thoughts in the comment area and let's discuss the potential impact of this policy change on the economy and our daily lives and investment markets!

#美联储降息 #经济分析 #特朗普观点 #哈里斯看法