Trump's '180-Degree Turn in the Crypto Space': A Multidimensional Game of Policy, Market, and Risk
Behind the Change of Attitude: Interests and Political Games
From 'Scam' to 'Strategic Reserve': A Dramatic Shift
During his 2024 campaign, Trump publicly criticized cryptocurrencies as 'scams', but after taking office, he signed an executive order incorporating Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple (XRP), and four other major cryptocurrencies into the U.S. strategic reserve. This shift is closely related to the massive funding the crypto industry provided to the Republican campaigns: during the 2024 election, crypto companies donated over $80 million to the Republican Party, far exceeding the Democratic Party. Additionally, the 'TRUMP' meme coin launched by the Trump team raised over $100 million in a single month, directly benefiting from the market enthusiasm generated by his policy shift.
The Symbiotic Relationship Between Industry Lobbying and Political Capital
The crypto industry pushes the Trump administration to adopt a 'crypto-friendly' stance through political donations and policy lobbying. For example, companies like Coinbase frequently interact with the White House, advocating for the SEC to withdraw its enforcement actions against them and planning to appoint Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire as the new SEC chair to reshape the regulatory framework.
Market Frenzy and Retail Investors' 'Roller Coaster'
Policy-Driven Volatility
Summit news triggered a surge in cryptocurrency prices: Bitcoin rose 10% in 24 hours, Solana skyrocketed 22% in a single day, and the total market capitalization surged by $300 billion. However, the market is highly speculative, with over 170,000 contract players liquidated within 24 hours, resulting in losses exceeding $800 million. On-chain data shows that institutions increased their holdings at the $85,000 Bitcoin level, while retail investors chased prices above $90,000, repeating the historical cycle of 'retail investors picking up the tab'.
The Fragility of the 'Trump Market'
The cryptocurrency market exhibits clear characteristics of a 'policy-driven market': tariff threats trigger sell-offs, and summit rumors drive rebounds. However, this rise, reliant on favorable policies, lacks fundamental support; if the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy or if there is a global economic recession, the market may face severe corrections.
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