炼金师的金疙瘩

In the operation of watching the market, in addition to analyzing according to knowledge, there is another very important point:
Pay attention to the historical K-line and historical performance of the currency
For example, in the figure below, the one on the far right of neiro breaks downward
According to general experience, this kind of break is the break after the distribution ends
It means that there may be a very smooth decline in the future
But!
Looking back at the historical K-line and looking to the left
It can be found that neiro has had similar breakouts many times in history
But the decline after each breakout is limited and not smooth
Considering the above factors
Then today facing the break on the far right
We can't go short with full confidence
This is an experience.
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The biggest difference between the trading market and the real world is that its rewards and punishments are very random. In the real world, we try our best to avoid making mistakes; in trading, the market often encourages you to make mistakes. For example, holding a position without stopping losses is a very serious mistake in trading. In the real world, it is equivalent to beating someone seriously. In the real world, if you beat someone seriously, there is a high probability that you will be arrested, lose money, and go to jail; in the trading world, holding a position without losing losses may not only not lose money, but may also be lucky, the market turns around and goes back, and you make money instead - this is equivalent to the market rewarding you for making mistakes. Such situations of being rewarded for making mistakes in trading not only happen occasionally, but also very frequently. This is also the fundamental reason why we can't control our hands and make mistakes repeatedly even though we know they are mistakes - because the market often rewards mistakes. If you make a mistake and others praise you, won't you make it worse? ! But,
By analogy, I prefer to describe the market as a society with an imperfect rule of law.
In this society, if you occasionally commit crimes, you may not be caught by the government, and you may even be worshipped as a hero (Liang Xi directly called him an expert).
But if you insist on being an outlaw, then in the long run -
If you do too much evil, you will be killed!

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