The data has come out, but the game isn't over yet; this is also the current entangled state of Bitcoin. I would like to call it a rising trend amidst fluctuations.
Last night's data was very poor, thus strengthening the expectations for interest rate cuts.
The market is almost certain that there will be a rate cut in September (with an expected probability exceeding 97%), and has even begun to price in the likelihood of three rate cuts before the end of the year. This is the biggest long-term benefit for all risk assets, including Bitcoin. After all, there is a lot of money flowing into our little pit.
From a technical perspective, as long as it stays above the key support area of 10750~10950, the medium-term structure of this market has not yet been damaged.
The entangled state lies in the so-called realization, which is a bearish signal.
As the data comes out, expectations for interest rate cuts are gradually being positioned ahead of time. Therefore, the next focus will be on the decision in September.
So currently, there is a small gap of about ten days that is worth looking forward to.
Following the lagging nature of gold: amidst concerns over weak economic data, gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset is greater, and some funds may have prioritized flowing into gold, which explains why gold reacts more swiftly. Therefore, watching gold also gives us some indications for Bitcoin.
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