比特币价格趋势

🚀 BTC contract holdings on mainstream exchanges are close to all-time highs, indicating that Bitcoin prices are about to break through previous highs?

After months of slump, the world's most valuable currency has begun to heat up, and market sentiment has improved accordingly. The latest data shows that Bitcoin open interest on all major derivatives exchanges will be close to an all-time high of $39 billion!

After a period of slump, the Bitcoin market has begun to pick up, and traders' confidence has also increased. According to the latest data from Coinglass, the current Bitcoin open interest exceeds $38.6 billion, showing a continuous growth trend compared with the open interest of the previous two days.

The last time this level was reached was on March 29, 2024, when the open interest just rose to more than $39 billion.

Open interest is a key indicator of investor sentiment, reflecting all unsettled leveraged trading positions in the market. Although this indicator does not show the direction of price movements, it also reveals traders' interest and participation in the market.

From this, we can understand that the increase or decrease in the amount of open interest can tell us whether traders are actively participating in the current market or staying on the sidelines.

When the cryptocurrency market surged in early Q4 2023, open interest increased to an all-time high of over $39 billion. But in Q2 2024, as Bitcoin prices fell, open interest also decreased.

Going back to August 6 this year, when BTC fell below $50,000 the day before, Bitcoin open interest also fell below $27 billion that day. Later, as Bitcoin prices gradually stabilized, open interest began to steadily recover.

Currently, traders generally believe that Bitcoin prices are expected to continue the upward trend in September and may rebound to the highs of March.

But it is worth noting that Coinglass's 24-hour long-short ratio data shows that long trading volume is less than short trading volume. Currently, 50.39% of BTC trading volume is short, while 49.61% is long. The data shows that most contract traders are still bearish.

💬 Do you think the price of Bitcoin can take advantage of this opportunity to break through the historical high again? In the current market environment, what trading strategy will you adopt?

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☠️ Is Bitcoin entering the death zone? The sell-off of long-term holders and weakening momentum

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn recently posted on social media X, pointing out that in the past 30 days, long-term holders of Bitcoin (those holding for at least 155 days) have sold 827,783 BTC, worth a total of about $82 billion.

This large-scale selling behavior is particularly noteworthy, especially when compared to the approximately 149,800 BTC purchased by MicroStrategy during this period and the 84,193 BTC inflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which together only amount to 30% of what long-term holders sold.

Maartunn noted that despite the massive sell-off pressure from long-term holders in the Bitcoin market, the market still shows strong resilience due to a surge in retail demand reaching an annual high.

However, he also warned that the current increase in selling power and/or net short positions in the market may suggest that market participants are becoming more cautious or bearish, which could affect Bitcoin's price trend.

Meanwhile, 10x Research also expressed views on X, comparing Bitcoin's current market condition to the "death zone" of climbing Mount Everest, a critical phase where risks are heightened.

He also stated that while Bitcoin may not have reached its price peak yet, some indicators show that market momentum is weakening, and he reminded investors to remain highly vigilant.

At the same time, over the past two weeks, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated within a narrower trading range, and last week, after briefly touching the top and bottom of this range, it returned to the middle position, forming a doji candlestick pattern, which is often a signal of market indecision.

Historically, this range-bound oscillation pattern often appears during a brief adjustment phase before a mainstream trend resumes.

Additionally, it is worth noting that cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea has significantly dropped from $25 billion to $6.7 billion, indicating a marked decrease in market activity.

Finally, do you think these signals mean that Bitcoin's price has peaked? Or will there be more retail demand to support the market?

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