市场预期
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Political game and market expectations: Coinbase is optimistic about the prospects of ETH ETF approval
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase believes there is a 30% to 40% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of the month.
In a May 15 report, David Han, an institutional research analyst at Coinbase, suggested that one of the key factors for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF was the correlation between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures product and spot trading prices. He believes that this correlation may also have prompted the SEC to approve a spot Ethereum ETF.
Coinbase analyst David Han believes that the prediction market movement and Grayscale Ethereum Trust’s 24% trading discount provide additional positive signals for the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF, suggesting that even amid uncertainty, there is potential reason for optimism in the market, which could bring unexpected upside to the approval of the ETH ETF.
In a May 15 report, David Han, an institutional research analyst at Coinbase, suggested that one of the key factors for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF was the correlation between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures product and spot trading prices. He believes that this correlation may also have prompted the SEC to approve a spot Ethereum ETF.
Coinbase analyst David Han believes that the prediction market movement and Grayscale Ethereum Trust’s 24% trading discount provide additional positive signals for the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF, suggesting that even amid uncertainty, there is potential reason for optimism in the market, which could bring unexpected upside to the approval of the ETH ETF.
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📉📈Wednesday FOMC meeting preview: Is the interest rate cut drama about to take place? 🏦💸
😐On the upcoming Wednesday, the focus of the market is on the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At present, the market generally expects that the meeting will keep the interest rate unchanged (the current interest rate is 525 to 550), and the probability of a rate cut is only 4.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 95.9%.
🤑However, for the FOMC meeting on September 18, the market expectations are completely different. It is predicted that the probability of a rate cut at that time is 100%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level has dropped to 0. Specifically, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.6%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 10.1%.
🔍Looking at the November FOMC meeting, the market expects a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 35.2%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is as high as 58.4%.
This shows that the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut at the September and November meetings with a probability of 89.6% and 35.2% respectively, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the November meeting is also quite high. 😲
💰 As for the last FOMC meeting at the end of the year, on December 18, the market expects a 75 basis point rate cut with a probability of 53.5% and a 50 basis point rate cut with a probability of 37.0%. This shows that the market generally believes that there will be at least three rate cuts by the end of this year, and the total rate cut may reach 75 basis points.
However, I have to remind everyone that although market expectations are hot, we cannot be too optimistic. 🔎If Fed Chairman Powell pours cold water on the expectation of three rate cuts at the end of the year at the meeting on Wednesday, the market may usher in another wave of corrections. As for the extent of the correction, whether it will fall below 60,000 points or even approach 50,000 points, this is definitely a major event that we must pay close attention to. 😟
😲What do you think? How many times do you think the interest rate will be cut by the end of the year, and what will be the maximum rate cut? Feel free to comment!
#FOMC #利率 #市场预期 #美联储 #降息
😐On the upcoming Wednesday, the focus of the market is on the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At present, the market generally expects that the meeting will keep the interest rate unchanged (the current interest rate is 525 to 550), and the probability of a rate cut is only 4.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 95.9%.
🤑However, for the FOMC meeting on September 18, the market expectations are completely different. It is predicted that the probability of a rate cut at that time is 100%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level has dropped to 0. Specifically, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.6%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 10.1%.
🔍Looking at the November FOMC meeting, the market expects a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 35.2%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is as high as 58.4%.
This shows that the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut at the September and November meetings with a probability of 89.6% and 35.2% respectively, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the November meeting is also quite high. 😲
💰 As for the last FOMC meeting at the end of the year, on December 18, the market expects a 75 basis point rate cut with a probability of 53.5% and a 50 basis point rate cut with a probability of 37.0%. This shows that the market generally believes that there will be at least three rate cuts by the end of this year, and the total rate cut may reach 75 basis points.
However, I have to remind everyone that although market expectations are hot, we cannot be too optimistic. 🔎If Fed Chairman Powell pours cold water on the expectation of three rate cuts at the end of the year at the meeting on Wednesday, the market may usher in another wave of corrections. As for the extent of the correction, whether it will fall below 60,000 points or even approach 50,000 points, this is definitely a major event that we must pay close attention to. 😟
😲What do you think? How many times do you think the interest rate will be cut by the end of the year, and what will be the maximum rate cut? Feel free to comment!
#FOMC #利率 #市场预期 #美联储 #降息
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Core CPI is basically in line with expectations, and expectations of a Fed rate cut are rising
The CPI data released today showed an annual growth rate of 2.9%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3.0%. Although the core CPI data was in line with expectations, the market's response was a slight correction, which may be interpreted as the end of the good news or the intentional dumping of the main funds. However, whether the market is affected by good news or bad news, a balanced investment strategy is the key to resist market fluctuations.
Latest Core CPI
September rate cut expectations | Source: FedWatch Tool <br />
According to FedWatch data, the market currently expects a 62.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting, while a 37.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. Overall, the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting is 100%.
Latest Core CPI
September rate cut expectations | Source: FedWatch Tool <br />
According to FedWatch data, the market currently expects a 62.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting, while a 37.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. Overall, the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting is 100%.
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📺 The Fed hit the pause button on Wednesday, and the market is confident about the expected rate cut in September! 🚨
🗓️ Hello everyone! The results of this FOMC meeting have been announced, and the Fed has decided: Let's not cut interest rates for now! This has made the next meeting a target of public criticism. The market is almost determined to believe that there will be a rate cut in September, and the expected rate cut probability has soared to 100%!
👀 Data shows that at the September FOMC meeting, the market generally predicts a 25 basis point rate cut. At the November FOMC meeting, the market predicts a 50 basis point rate cut. And by the end of December, there may be another 75 basis point cut. To put it bluntly, everyone thinks that we have to face three rate cuts before the end of this year.
💥But then again, isn't this expectation too radical? There is no room for error, which is like walking on a tightrope. If the Fed's next decision is different from market expectations, it will certainly hit market confidence, and the market may face another round of bloodbath!
🦅 Therefore, some people believe that if Fed Chairman Powell's speech in September is more hawkish, market confidence may be frustrated, and the cryptocurrency market and other financial markets may face greater downward pressure.
🤔 But in my opinion, although the interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting seems to be the general trend, we must also be prepared for the Fed's possible "unexpected move". After all, the market is always full of uncertainty, isn't it?
💬 Finally, do you think the Fed will follow market expectations at the next FOMC meeting? Or will there be a big reversal? Leave your opinion in the comment section!
#美联储决议 #市场预期 #降息风波 #加密货币市场
🗓️ Hello everyone! The results of this FOMC meeting have been announced, and the Fed has decided: Let's not cut interest rates for now! This has made the next meeting a target of public criticism. The market is almost determined to believe that there will be a rate cut in September, and the expected rate cut probability has soared to 100%!
👀 Data shows that at the September FOMC meeting, the market generally predicts a 25 basis point rate cut. At the November FOMC meeting, the market predicts a 50 basis point rate cut. And by the end of December, there may be another 75 basis point cut. To put it bluntly, everyone thinks that we have to face three rate cuts before the end of this year.
💥But then again, isn't this expectation too radical? There is no room for error, which is like walking on a tightrope. If the Fed's next decision is different from market expectations, it will certainly hit market confidence, and the market may face another round of bloodbath!
🦅 Therefore, some people believe that if Fed Chairman Powell's speech in September is more hawkish, market confidence may be frustrated, and the cryptocurrency market and other financial markets may face greater downward pressure.
🤔 But in my opinion, although the interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting seems to be the general trend, we must also be prepared for the Fed's possible "unexpected move". After all, the market is always full of uncertainty, isn't it?
💬 Finally, do you think the Fed will follow market expectations at the next FOMC meeting? Or will there be a big reversal? Leave your opinion in the comment section!
#美联储决议 #市场预期 #降息风波 #加密货币市场
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Ethereum price surges 5% to $3,300 as Ethereum ETF listing decision is imminent
As the market awaits a key decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the listing of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), the price of Ethereum has shown strong anticipation for this potential approval, surging 5% to $3,300.
This surge in Ethereum’s price is a warm response to the upcoming regulatory green light. As this key decision approaches, investors, analysts and industry leaders are closely watching the SEC’s decision-making and looking forward to its key role in promoting the development of the cryptocurrency market.
This surge in Ethereum’s price is a warm response to the upcoming regulatory green light. As this key decision approaches, investors, analysts and industry leaders are closely watching the SEC’s decision-making and looking forward to its key role in promoting the development of the cryptocurrency market.
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