宏观政策

March 13, 2025: Events in the Cryptocurrency Space

Due to favorable US CPI data in February (inflation rate dropped to 2.8%), Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $84,000 and has currently retreated to around $82,000, fluctuating in that range.

Ethereum has shown weakness, with prices hovering around $1,860. Altcoins have exhibited mixed performance: mainstream coins like Solana (SOL) and XRP have seen slight increases.

Santiment data indicates that since February 27, trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has continued to decline, and there is insufficient buying power during the rebound, with prices still facing the risk of a second downturn.

Bloomberg analysts point out that the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs may be delayed until the new SEC chairman takes office, cooling market expectations for traditional capital entry.

Clearstream, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse, announced it will provide Bitcoin and Ethereum custody services for institutions, further embracing crypto assets by traditional financial institutions.

In the US: A Massachusetts state representative proposed the establishment of a special committee on blockchain and cryptocurrencies, while South Dakota has postponed the consideration of a bill allowing state government investment in Bitcoin.

Abu Dhabi sovereign fund MGX announced a $2 billion investment in Binance, setting a record for a single investment in the crypto industry.

The lawsuit between the US SEC and Ripple is nearing its conclusion, which may impact XRP's market position; meanwhile, Ripple has also obtained a license from the Dubai Financial Services Authority to provide cryptocurrency payment services in the UAE.

The Ethereum mainnet completed the Cancun upgrade on March 13, introducing the EIP-4844 proposal, which significantly reduces Layer 2 transaction fees to $0.01 through the protodanksharding mechanism, expected to boost the growth of Layer 2 ecosystems like Optimism and Arbitrum.

Mainnet countdown: The open mainnet will launch on March 14, supporting BTC/ETH cross-chain bridging, with the number of nodes increasing to 180,000 and TPS exceeding 5,000. The Dr. Ni community warns that renaming accounts requires caution to avoid asset deductions due to violations.

Summary: The market dynamics on March 13, 2025, highlight the diversified development of the cryptocurrency industry: capital flows towards stablecoins and compliant assets, divergence in regulatory policies, accelerated integration of AI technology, and differences in strategies between institutions and retail investors. Although short-term overheating signals have triggered cautious sentiment, in the long run, the combination of technological innovation and policy support remains the core driving force for industry growth. Investors should pay attention to regulatory developments, technological breakthroughs, and macroeconomic changes, and flexibly adjust their strategies.

#币圈 #加密货币 #宏观政策 #市场风向

March 18, 2025 - News in the Crypto World

After experiencing a sharp decline, the price of Bitcoin has found support around $82,000, currently reported at $83,347.83. The total market capitalization has fallen below $2.72 trillion, and the fear index (VIX) has risen to 28, indicating 'extreme fear' sentiment.

Despite the general decline in mainstream cryptocurrencies, TON, DOT, HBAR, LTC, and others are rising against the trend, with TON surging 40% due to the push from the Telegram ecosystem.

In the United States, the SEC's acting chair has instructed staff to re-examine the proposed cryptocurrency custody rules, while also considering the cancellation or modification of proposals for investor asset protection during Biden's term, including those related to cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting from March 18 to 19, and decisions regarding interest rates will have significant impacts on traditional finance and the crypto market.

China's economic data for January-February has warmed, with total retail sales of consumer goods growing by 4%. Policies are focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the stock and real estate markets.

Trump has nominated Bowman to serve as Vice Chair of Supervision at the Federal Reserve, likely leading to relaxed regulations.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has launched Solana futures and plans to compete with the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the crypto derivatives market.

The Singapore Exchange plans to launch Bitcoin perpetual futures in the second half of 2025, limited to institutional clients.

Hashdex has applied to modify its ETF portfolio to include altcoins such as XRP, SOL, and ADA.

OKX (Easydex) is accused of providing a Web3 platform that helps North Korean hacker groups launder money, with the funds primarily coming from the $1.4 billion stolen from Bybit exchange.

Ethereum's Pectra upgrade is planned for implementation in the first quarter of 2025, which will optimize network performance, including allowing users to pay gas fees with different tokens.

Berkshire Hathaway, led by Buffett, has 'as promised' increased its holdings in Japan's five major trading companies, with an average stake nearing 10%.

Summary: Mainstream cryptocurrencies like DOGE and SOL have seen declines exceeding 10% within 24 hours. On-chain data shows that selling pressure mainly comes from long-term holders and miners, rather than ETF investors. As the Federal Reserve's March interest rate decision approaches, market expectations of policy changes may exacerbate the volatility of crypto assets, necessitating vigilance against liquidity tightening risks as the cryptocurrency market undergoes a deep correction.

#币圈那点事 #加密货币 #宏观政策 #市场风向

🌪️【Warning of Vulnerabilities in the Crypto Market! Three Major Signals Reveal the 'Calm Before the Storm'】⚠️

🔥 Core Risk Signals
1️⃣ Liquidity Drought
- Overall spot trading volume across the network decreased by 38% week-on-week, hitting a new low since October 2024
- Open Interest (OI) for perpetual contracts fell below $20 billion, with leverage dropping to an annual average of 47%
- On-chain whale addresses (holding ≥1000 BTC) saw a net outflow of 12,000 BTC in the past 7 days

2️⃣ Abnormal Funding Rates
- When Bitcoin price broke $88,786, the funding rate for perpetual contracts dropped to -0.018%
- Historical Reflection: 30 days after the negative rate in April 2024, BTC plummeted by 22%

3️⃣ Unusual Institutional Behavior
- 'Smart Money' indicators show: The number of large recharge addresses on CEX decreased by 51% week on week
- The proportion of stablecoin holdings by compliant funds rose to 63%, the highest since June 2023

💡 Insights from Top Institutions
🔴 CoinPanel Trading Expert Kirill Kretov
"The market has become a puppet on strings—
▸ Retail investor activity is 79% lower than the peak in 2024, liquidity traps intensify price manipulation risks
▸ Major funds are collectively silent: Hedge fund crypto exposure has dropped to 1.2% of total positions (Morgan Stanley data)"

🟢 SignalPlus Partner Augustine Fan
"The tariff policy on April 2 will be the key to breaking the deadlock—
▸ The current rebound is a technical recovery during a 'policy vacuum period,' targeting $91,000
▸ If the tariff announcement exceeds expectations, BTC could see extreme volatility of ±15% in a single day in 2024"

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