反身性

"Soros-style shorting of crypto assets: three steps to sniping bubbles"
Shorting bubbles (reflexivity (a big drop creates panic and then a bigger drop)) #反身性 $BTC

- In 2021, Dogecoin soared 100 times due to Musk's tweets, and retail investors entered the market with FOMO (fear of missing out), and the price was completely decoupled from the fundamentals.
- Before the collapse of LUNA in 2022, the market generally believed in the "algorithmic stability" mechanism of UST, ignoring the fatal flaw of excessive pledge rate.

**. "Reflexivity amplifier" in the currency circle**
- **Leverage tools**: Exchanges provide 50-100 times contracts to accelerate bubble expansion and bursting.
- **Social media resonance**: Reddit forums, Twitter big V shouting orders, the speed of emotional transmission is far faster than traditional markets.
- **No circuit breaker mechanism**: 7×24 hours trading, prices can be halved in a few minutes.

**Two, four key steps to short cryptocurrencies**
**1. Lock in the prey: Who is swimming naked? **
Not all currencies are suitable for shorting, and two types of targets need to be focused on:
- **Highly valued bubble coins**:
- Among the top 50 in market value, projects with an increase of more than 300% in the past three months and no actual use cases (such as Meme coins, air coins that take advantage of AI/metaverse hot spots).

**Core logic: reflexivity trap**
When the market is frenzy, prices and beliefs reinforce each other until they collapse.

**Step 1: Lock in the target**
1. **Highly bubbled coins**:
- Among the top 50 in market value, a surge of more than 200% in three months + no actual application (such as hot spot coins).
- On-chain data warning: Exchange deposits surge + whales continue to withdraw coins (Smart Money withdrawal).

**Step 2: Sniper timing**
**Key signal resonance**:
- **Extreme emotions**: Fear and greed index > 90, contract funding rate > 0.1% for 3 consecutive days.
- **On-chain warning**: MVRV ratio > 3.5 (Bitcoin overvaluation indicator), whale address sell-off.
- **Catalyst**: Policy strikes (such as SEC prosecution), project party crash (freeze withdrawal/vulnerability attack).

Shorting crypto assets is **the extreme tug of rationality and madness**.
**Remember**:
> The time when the market is irrational may far exceed your bullets and patience.
**Aim at bubbles → wait for the peak of emotions → tool belt stop loss**
Use data to fight madness, and use discipline to survive.