反弹信号
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$BTC
Many people say it bounced back, and some opened short at 106, 107-108 and it has now reached 109. Those who shouted short at 106 have already lost over 3000 points. Indeed, I also believed in shorting at 106-107, so I can only spend some time at midnight to see how the naked K charts move and how to make decisions. Seeing the K bars consistently unable to drop without any signals, I can't short at this point. So, if I find that I can't short, should I still force it? You can only change your strategy, either go long or wait and see which direction emerges before making a decision. This is the point where it can't go down, always consolidating, giving short positions three chances to escape (in the picture).
So now at 109, it just broke 1106 but didn't hold, and has come back to around 1097. Did it think it could short again? It has been tempting short positions; its movement is aiming to break the previous high and continue to write new highs... Currently, that's how it looks! Can't guarantee it won't change direction later! So trading is flexible.
$ETH
Auntie is the most obvious! On Saturday and Sunday, it surged to 254 twice but was knocked down, and it couldn't break below 245, so we can only look for long positions! Plus, it's been washing up and down around 24-278 for almost a month, which is called consolidation. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout will be! That's the reason to see it break 3000!
#看懂K线
#反弹信号
Many people say it bounced back, and some opened short at 106, 107-108 and it has now reached 109. Those who shouted short at 106 have already lost over 3000 points. Indeed, I also believed in shorting at 106-107, so I can only spend some time at midnight to see how the naked K charts move and how to make decisions. Seeing the K bars consistently unable to drop without any signals, I can't short at this point. So, if I find that I can't short, should I still force it? You can only change your strategy, either go long or wait and see which direction emerges before making a decision. This is the point where it can't go down, always consolidating, giving short positions three chances to escape (in the picture).
So now at 109, it just broke 1106 but didn't hold, and has come back to around 1097. Did it think it could short again? It has been tempting short positions; its movement is aiming to break the previous high and continue to write new highs... Currently, that's how it looks! Can't guarantee it won't change direction later! So trading is flexible.
$ETH
Auntie is the most obvious! On Saturday and Sunday, it surged to 254 twice but was knocked down, and it couldn't break below 245, so we can only look for long positions! Plus, it's been washing up and down around 24-278 for almost a month, which is called consolidation. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout will be! That's the reason to see it break 3000!
#看懂K线
#反弹信号
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Evening Thoughts on March 19:
Currently, the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is still uncertain, market sentiment is not showing significant fluctuations, and it has been moving sideways. The bulls are exerting effort to launch a new round of rebound, but looking at the momentum of the rebound, the bulls seem to be slightly lacking in strength.
At the four-hour level, if Bitcoin can initiate a new round of rebound, then the upper resistance may be opened, and the market pattern might welcome a turning point; conversely, if Bitcoin's rebound is weak and difficult to continue, the market is likely to test lower levels, similar to yesterday.
I personally feel there will be a rebound followed by a downward test to confirm the support level below. Recently, I have repeatedly emphasized the range of fluctuations; this is also an essential process for the market to seek solid support. An increase purely stimulated by news is just a fleeting thing without roots, fundamentally unable to shake the larger technical structure of the trend.
Bitcoin short near 83500-84000, looking down towards 79000-81000.
#美联储3月利率决议 #反弹信号
Currently, the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is still uncertain, market sentiment is not showing significant fluctuations, and it has been moving sideways. The bulls are exerting effort to launch a new round of rebound, but looking at the momentum of the rebound, the bulls seem to be slightly lacking in strength.
At the four-hour level, if Bitcoin can initiate a new round of rebound, then the upper resistance may be opened, and the market pattern might welcome a turning point; conversely, if Bitcoin's rebound is weak and difficult to continue, the market is likely to test lower levels, similar to yesterday.
I personally feel there will be a rebound followed by a downward test to confirm the support level below. Recently, I have repeatedly emphasized the range of fluctuations; this is also an essential process for the market to seek solid support. An increase purely stimulated by news is just a fleeting thing without roots, fundamentally unable to shake the larger technical structure of the trend.
Bitcoin short near 83500-84000, looking down towards 79000-81000.
#美联储3月利率决议 #反弹信号
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🧐 On-chain losses reach 14%! Analyst: Bitcoin may be nearing a rebound threshold
On March 2, well-known crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out on platform X that historically, when the actual loss of on-chain traders reaches -12%, Bitcoin (BTC) often sees a rebound. Currently, this indicator has dropped to -14%, exceeding the historical rebound threshold, suggesting that BTC may be close to a critical point for price recovery.
In fact, by analyzing the actual loss magnitude of on-chain traders (NUPL) data, one can measure the degree of deviation between the overall market holding cost and the current price. When this indicator falls into deep negative territory, it indicates that the majority of investors are in a loss position. When market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, it is often accompanied by a bottom rebound.
Comparison of historical patterns and current situation:
· Historical Pattern: In several past market cycles, when NUPL moves far from zero, BTC prices usually reach a temporary bottom and begin to rebound.
· Current Situation: The current NUPL value is below the historical trigger level, reflecting increased market selling pressure, but it may also indicate an oversold signal.
If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin may see a rebound in the short term. However, it is essential to consider external factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory dynamics, and market liquidity for a comprehensive judgment.
Conclusion:
Ali Martinez's analysis provides investors with a key reference indicator, and the current -14% loss may indicate that BTC has entered the "oversold zone." Although historical patterns cannot be entirely replicated, this signal is worth close attention. Whether the market will rebound as expected still requires observation of subsequent capital inflow and sentiment recovery.
💬 Do you think Bitcoin will rebound according to historical patterns this time? Is now a good time to buy the dip, or is the risk still high? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
#比特币 #链上数据 #市场分析 #加密货币 #反弹信号
On March 2, well-known crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out on platform X that historically, when the actual loss of on-chain traders reaches -12%, Bitcoin (BTC) often sees a rebound. Currently, this indicator has dropped to -14%, exceeding the historical rebound threshold, suggesting that BTC may be close to a critical point for price recovery.
In fact, by analyzing the actual loss magnitude of on-chain traders (NUPL) data, one can measure the degree of deviation between the overall market holding cost and the current price. When this indicator falls into deep negative territory, it indicates that the majority of investors are in a loss position. When market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, it is often accompanied by a bottom rebound.
Comparison of historical patterns and current situation:
· Historical Pattern: In several past market cycles, when NUPL moves far from zero, BTC prices usually reach a temporary bottom and begin to rebound.
· Current Situation: The current NUPL value is below the historical trigger level, reflecting increased market selling pressure, but it may also indicate an oversold signal.
If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin may see a rebound in the short term. However, it is essential to consider external factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory dynamics, and market liquidity for a comprehensive judgment.
Conclusion:
Ali Martinez's analysis provides investors with a key reference indicator, and the current -14% loss may indicate that BTC has entered the "oversold zone." Although historical patterns cannot be entirely replicated, this signal is worth close attention. Whether the market will rebound as expected still requires observation of subsequent capital inflow and sentiment recovery.
💬 Do you think Bitcoin will rebound according to historical patterns this time? Is now a good time to buy the dip, or is the risk still high? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
#比特币 #链上数据 #市场分析 #加密货币 #反弹信号
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