加息预期
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Next Thursday, the Federal Reserve will hold a rate meeting. This event has attracted much attention because it may mark the first time in recent years that the Federal Reserve has turned to loose monetary policy, which has a significant impact on the Bitcoin market.
1️⃣ Policy expectations and market reactions
1. Expectations of interest rate cuts: The market generally expects that this meeting will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points, and there is a probability of a 50 basis point cut. The interest rate cut will increase market liquidity, and capital may flow from low-risk assets to high-risk assets, and Bitcoin may also benefit from this.
2. Market reaction: At present, the expectation of interest rate cuts has been digested by the market to a certain extent. If the interest rate cut is in line with expectations, market fluctuations may be relatively limited; but if the interest rate cut exceeds expectations, or the subsequent speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reveals more key information, the market may react more strongly.
3. Forecast: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 14, and the market reaction will be relatively stable, but Powell's speech will become a key variable.
2️⃣ The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks
1. Current status: The recent trend of Bitcoin is highly correlated with Nasdaq, indicating that it is regarded as a high-volatility asset rather than a safe-haven tool, especially after the opening of Bitcoin ETF.
2. Possible decoupling: Bitcoin can only decouple from the trend of US stocks when there is a global emergency or a major positive/bad news in the cryptocurrency market itself.
- (a) If a world emergency (such as war, sanctions, etc.) occurs, it may trigger the release of Bitcoin's safe-haven properties, but it is difficult to predict whether the current international trend will become tense, and there are many interfering factors.
- (b) There are additional major positives or negatives in the cryptocurrency market. Major positives include Trump's victory and the introduction of new policies that are beneficial to the cryptocurrency market; major negatives include Trump's defeat.
#加息预期
#美国经济软着陆？
1️⃣ Policy expectations and market reactions
1. Expectations of interest rate cuts: The market generally expects that this meeting will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points, and there is a probability of a 50 basis point cut. The interest rate cut will increase market liquidity, and capital may flow from low-risk assets to high-risk assets, and Bitcoin may also benefit from this.
2. Market reaction: At present, the expectation of interest rate cuts has been digested by the market to a certain extent. If the interest rate cut is in line with expectations, market fluctuations may be relatively limited; but if the interest rate cut exceeds expectations, or the subsequent speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reveals more key information, the market may react more strongly.
3. Forecast: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 14, and the market reaction will be relatively stable, but Powell's speech will become a key variable.
2️⃣ The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks
1. Current status: The recent trend of Bitcoin is highly correlated with Nasdaq, indicating that it is regarded as a high-volatility asset rather than a safe-haven tool, especially after the opening of Bitcoin ETF.
2. Possible decoupling: Bitcoin can only decouple from the trend of US stocks when there is a global emergency or a major positive/bad news in the cryptocurrency market itself.
- (a) If a world emergency (such as war, sanctions, etc.) occurs, it may trigger the release of Bitcoin's safe-haven properties, but it is difficult to predict whether the current international trend will become tense, and there are many interfering factors.
- (b) There are additional major positives or negatives in the cryptocurrency market. Major positives include Trump's victory and the introduction of new policies that are beneficial to the cryptocurrency market; major negatives include Trump's defeat.
#加息预期
#美国经济软着陆？
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The Federal Reserve may also "raise interest rates" in September!
As we all know, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September!
But now that the Sino-US trade war is at a critical moment, I wonder if the Democratic Party can withstand the pressure and pour the flood of inflation on the world?
So, don't think too much before things happen.
What if the interest rate is raised? Everyone should be prepared for both situations! ! ! !
There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, but the probability is low.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has a significant impact on the world, and it must formulate policies based on actual economic conditions.
Currently, both inflation and unemployment rates in the United States are high and the scale of foreign debt is huge, which increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
But now that the Sino-US trade war is at a critical moment, I wonder if the Democratic Party can withstand the pressure and pour the flood of inflation on the world?
So, don't think too much before things happen.
What if the interest rate is raised? Everyone should be prepared for both situations! ! ! !
There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, but the probability is low.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has a significant impact on the world, and it must formulate policies based on actual economic conditions.
Currently, both inflation and unemployment rates in the United States are high and the scale of foreign debt is huge, which increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
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$NEAR has started to rebound, are there any friends who want to open it together?
A coin that cannot be ignored in the AI sector, it would be great if there is a big rebound🥺🥺
#山寨现货布局如何布局
#AI板块强势进击
#加息预期
A coin that cannot be ignored in the AI sector, it would be great if there is a big rebound🥺🥺
#山寨现货布局如何布局
#AI板块强势进击
#加息预期
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#今日市场观点
$BTC Yesterday, the support position of 57200 points rebounded, and today it is close to 61000 points. The market fluctuates back and forth with a large amplitude. Recently, it has been testing the 58400 range. The upper 62000 range is also a relatively strong resistance level. The current view is still unchanged. It is still a range-oscillating market. As long as it does not break through 62000 points and does not break through 57200, the market will basically not change.
The oscillating trend of $ETH is relatively weak, and the fluctuation range is relatively small, which is smaller than the oscillating trend of the big cake. The focus of intraday trading is on the 2460-2520 range. There is no big direction, so wait and see.
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #加息预期 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落
$BTC Yesterday, the support position of 57200 points rebounded, and today it is close to 61000 points. The market fluctuates back and forth with a large amplitude. Recently, it has been testing the 58400 range. The upper 62000 range is also a relatively strong resistance level. The current view is still unchanged. It is still a range-oscillating market. As long as it does not break through 62000 points and does not break through 57200, the market will basically not change.
The oscillating trend of $ETH is relatively weak, and the fluctuation range is relatively small, which is smaller than the oscillating trend of the big cake. The focus of intraday trading is on the 2460-2520 range. There is no big direction, so wait and see.
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #加息预期 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落
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Fed effectively confirms rate hike cycle is over
As July looks increasingly like the last rate hike of the current cycle, the first rate cut will be in March next year, given that it takes an average of eight months from the last rate hike to the first rate cut.
The market at least partially agrees with this view, so in recent days, the probability of a rate cut in March next year has been as high as 40%.
#加息预期 #ETH $BTC $ETH
As July looks increasingly like the last rate hike of the current cycle, the first rate cut will be in March next year, given that it takes an average of eight months from the last rate hike to the first rate cut.
The market at least partially agrees with this view, so in recent days, the probability of a rate cut in March next year has been as high as 40%.
#加息预期 #ETH $BTC $ETH
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Fed Chairman Powell: I don't think the next move may be a rate hike
According to a speech by Fed Chairman Powell, the US PPI data is actually quite mixed, and it is uncertain whether inflation will continue. Restrictive policies may take longer than expected to work to reduce inflation. The United States will reduce the inflation rate back to 2%. Restrictive policies may take longer than expected to work to reduce inflation. In many ways, the policy interest rate is restrictive. I don't think the next move may be a rate hike. It is more likely that the policy interest rate will be maintained at the current level. #加息预期 #降息预期
According to a speech by Fed Chairman Powell, the US PPI data is actually quite mixed, and it is uncertain whether inflation will continue. Restrictive policies may take longer than expected to work to reduce inflation. The United States will reduce the inflation rate back to 2%. Restrictive policies may take longer than expected to work to reduce inflation. In many ways, the policy interest rate is restrictive. I don't think the next move may be a rate hike. It is more likely that the policy interest rate will be maintained at the current level. #加息预期 #降息预期
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If you believe in historical miracles
1. SOL, expected to be $350 in July-August
2. TON, expected to be $18 in September-October
3. XRP, expected to be $1.5 in August-September
4. MATIC, expected to be $1.8 in July-August
5. DOGE, expected to be $0.4 in October-November
6. BNB, expected to be $650 in July
7. NEAR, expected to be $15 in August-September
8. ETH, expected to be $4,500 in July
9. TIA, expected to be $35 in July-August
10. BTC, expected to be $80,000 in July
Welcome to like, collect, forward and comment
#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准
#加息预期 #BTC走势分析
1. SOL, expected to be $350 in July-August
2. TON, expected to be $18 in September-October
3. XRP, expected to be $1.5 in August-September
4. MATIC, expected to be $1.8 in July-August
5. DOGE, expected to be $0.4 in October-November
6. BNB, expected to be $650 in July
7. NEAR, expected to be $15 in August-September
8. ETH, expected to be $4,500 in July
9. TIA, expected to be $35 in July-August
10. BTC, expected to be $80,000 in July
Welcome to like, collect, forward and comment
#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准
#加息预期 #BTC走势分析
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Eight Fed rate hikes in 2024
January 31: No action (possible interest rate hike)
March 20: No action (may raise interest rates)
May 1st: Stand still
On June 12, interest rates were cut by 25 basis points.
July 31: Stand still
September 18 Rate cut by 25 basis points or more
No action on November 7 (the month of the US presidential election)
Dec. 18 Rate cut by 25 basis points or more
The above is the judgment of the Fed’s interest rate cut path in 2024. #BTC #加息预期
January 31: No action (possible interest rate hike)
March 20: No action (may raise interest rates)
May 1st: Stand still
On June 12, interest rates were cut by 25 basis points.
July 31: Stand still
September 18 Rate cut by 25 basis points or more
No action on November 7 (the month of the US presidential election)
Dec. 18 Rate cut by 25 basis points or more
The above is the judgment of the Fed’s interest rate cut path in 2024. #BTC #加息预期
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