I see the core message of this report is to use the past price fluctuations of Bitcoin to speculate on the future trends of Shiba Inu coin. There are several key points we need to clarify:
First, let's talk about Bitcoin.
The report repeatedly mentions the "halving market", which is essentially the old trick of halving mining rewards for miners every four years.
Since 2012, there have been three halving events, and each time, Bitcoin has indeed skyrocketed: the first time by 310%, the second by 202%, and recently by 272%.
Based on this pattern, I extrapolate that if Bitcoin can reach $220,000 during the next halving in 2028, this number sounds frightening, but when you think about it, it's calculated by multiplying this year's low point of $49,000 by the historical average increase of 344%.
The key point is that the author believes Shiba Inu coin will ride the rocket with Bitcoin.
The reasoning given is that the price movements of these two coins have an 87% correlation, and since Shiba Inu coin has greater volatility, it may rise even more aggressively than Bitcoin.
According to their calculation, if Bitcoin really can reach $220,000, Shiba Inu coin might triple from its current price of $0.000008354 to $0.0001.
However, I tend to be the type of person who likes to bring a dose of reality to things.
First of all, using the data from the previous three halving events to predict the future is risky; the crypto market is not what it used to be, and the regulatory environment is much more complex now.
Moreover, Shiba Inu coin, being a meme coin, is essentially an air coin supported by community consensus, fundamentally different from Bitcoin, which is backed by technology.
Recently, with Trump's market cooling down, Shiba Inu coin can drop by 40% in a single day; this roller coaster trend requires one to be prepared to lose everything if they want to invest.
What’s most amusing is that the author uses the "344% average increase" figure to forcibly calculate the average from the four halving data points, which is a pitifully small sample size, yet they insist on finding a pattern; this statistical method would likely face criticism in academic circles.
Furthermore, a Bitcoin price of $220,000 would mean a market cap exceeding $4 trillion, surpassing the current total market cap of gold globally. Is that realistic? I think it's fine to view it as a science fiction story, but believing it could easily lead to disappointment.
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