交易理念

First you have knowledge, then you have methods, make bold guesses, and then verify them carefully
Many people have been going around in circles for more than ten years, and the gold wire frames have been replaced with reading glasses without a continuously profitable trading system. In the end, they attribute all their failed trades to their mentality problems.
Most traders refuse to admit that they use factors such as entry time, trading time, backtesting of various strategy systems, hours of watching the market... to deny technical problems, and some even think that technology has no It’s useful, but the fundamentals are useless. This market is short-term, with most swing players and very few long-term players. If technology doesn’t work, what’s the use?

First, always only look at the weekly and daily lines, and don’t look at the cycles below the daily lines (do the midline); second, only use moving averages, trend lines, neck lines, false swings, and retracements, and ignore anything else. ; Third, the total position should not exceed 50%, and the position of a single product should not exceed 30%; fourth, try to open a position, stop loss if wrong, and add to position if right. One more point: It is better to trade in the original direction and only be trapped once in the end, than to grab a small rebound and be trapped again and again. 02In fact, it is not difficult to find a good opportunity for trading, but the difficulty is to make good use of the opportunity. I think I built the position right, but I can't hold it. The reasons are as follows: first, the position is too big, and I can't resist any fluctuations, so I have to run away; second, there is no advantage at the position where I opened the position, and I hit it as soon as I opened the position. When it rebounded, it was squeezed out; third, there was no basis for closing the position, and it looked at the market every day, and ran in and out emotionally; fourth, it was unable to see the direction, and it was taken for granted. 03 I suggest that you only keep four moving averages on the 300-day, 150-day, 75-day, and 30-day moving averages on your chart, and always only trade in the direction of the 30-day and 75-day moving averages. As long as the direction of the moving average is clear, a position will be opened when the price is close to the 30-day and 75-day moving averages, and the position will not be closed until the trend line and neckline of each band fall below; the position will always be less than 30%; only when the trend line, neck line, and moving average are three After the two are broken through and confirmed at the same time, then change the direction of the transaction. In addition, position opening should be carried out in batches. If you make a mistake, you should run away immediately. If you make a mistake, you will increase the position gradually. Hold the position patiently until the price breaks through the trend line and neckline before closing the position. Also, never care about fundamentals and price levels, just trade with the trend. 04 I will give you a formula. If you understand it thoroughly, you will definitely make a lot of money: investment profit and loss = opportunity success rate × opportunity position rate × position profit and loss rate. Let me explain: You must always ensure that your success rate when entering the market is greater than 50%, then you must follow the trend + retracement to build a position; you must ensure that the position when you make money is greater than the position when you lose money, then you must make money and add positions. Never add to a position if you are losing money; you must ensure that the amount of money you make is greater than the amount of money you lose, and then you must ensure that you can stop the loss in time and let the profits run. 05 Several precepts for investment and trading: Beware of being impatient: If there are no reasonable conditions for opening or closing a position, don’t move around; The first point: Generally speaking, when you can’t understand the direction—that is, the price is in a convergent form— —You should look at the weekly and monthly lines, and try to build a position along the edge of the pattern in the original direction.If the pattern breaks through with the trend, increase the position; if the pattern breaks through in the opposite direction, backhand. This is more organized and easier to operate. Try not to operate in both directions. In the end, you will be exhausted. If you really break through, you will not dare to do it. Second point: Never judge that the direction has changed easily at any time. In other words, it is better to follow the original direction than to switch to trading easily. Because there are actually very few real turns, it is estimated that they only account for 20% of the earliest trading opportunities, and the rest are opportunities to follow the trend. Why should we give up opportunities with high probability and seize opportunities with low probability? The third point: A good attitude does not come out of thin air, it must be cultivated. This kind of cultivation does not refer to chanting sutras, but to practice - you must constantly cultivate your feelings through transactions and by summarizing both positive and negative experiences. This must take two or three years. When your method becomes your habit and character, your mentality will naturally improve. If your mentality has not become your habit and character, if you are still talking about the importance of mentality, then you can be sure that your mentality is not good. 06 Take sugar as an example and talk about failed transactions. In the final analysis, failed transactions are caused by disrespect for the market. The details are as follows: First, you do not pay attention to the trend of the market price itself, but rather what positions you hold, and you wishfully believe in which direction the market will go. When the market goes in the opposite direction, not only do they not correct their mistakes, but they use all kinds of ridiculous reasons to defend themselves. In fact, the market is always a possibility. Our position building is just a judgment on the possibility. If your judgment is wrong, you should leave instead of being stubborn. I've made a lot of money both long and short on sugar. Long positions are also opened after the price retraces. But when the market told me that the price had entered a state of shock, I no longer insisted on being long or short. Instead, I resolutely closed the long position, lost a small amount of money, and switched to a bearish trading idea. This idea is still valid today. Second, do not pay attention to the market trend, but use the main force, banker, etc. to trade. In fact, any behavior of the main force will be reflected in the price, so why do you need to predict it? He even brought up Rogers to talk about it.You can think about it, no one’s words are the absolute truth; even if they are the absolute truth, there is still a question of how to operate. Even a correction in a bull market can kill people. Still the same sentence: Whether it is the main player or Lao Luo, everything must be tested by the market. The market moves faster and more realistically than Lao Luo. Why should we abandon the near and seek the far, trust our ears instead of our eyes? Third, if the transaction is wrong, the long-term trend has not changed to justify it. In fact, since futures are margin trading, risks and returns are magnified tenfold, so even if you can clearly see the long-term trend, if you don't avoid short-term risks, then you will die after a correction. What is the long-term? This is a bit like a saying in the stock market: short-term becomes long-term, and long-term becomes contribution. The stock market can still leave you some money, but if you play like that with futures, you will have nothing left. Fourth, they do not understand the principles of games. The essence of futures is actually to lose a small amount of money when you lose, win a big amount of money when you win, and try to increase the proportion of winning times. No one, including Lao Luo, can get it right every time. If you are right, you must expand the fruits of victory; if you are wrong, you must escape quickly. But some people think that people who can do futures must be right every time. My trading success rate is between 60 and 70%, but this does not prevent me from making money. I was also wrong about sugar. It doesn't matter, just change it. I'm afraid that if I make a mistake, I still want to save face, refuse to correct it, and just call other breeds nonsense. In fact, this approach can only deceive those who are new to it. For those with some professional qualities, it just adds a little more laughter. #交易理念 #技术分析

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In this ever-changing cryptocurrency market, we often need to keep up with the pace. Comprehensive analysis from macroeconomic policies to technical aspects tests our insight and decision-making ability. As a cyclical trader, I always remain highly sensitive and active to the market.
Looking back at the past year, I have been firmly optimistic about the bull market since the bitcoin price broke through 20,000 in early 2023. Although there were episodes of "bull" market in the middle, my overall view has never wavered. Over the past year, I have continuously "recharged" everyone's faith by updating content, although sometimes I have faced the dilemma of having nothing to say, or was impacted by market fluctuations and different opinions.