Citi forecasts Bitcoin to hit $135K by year-end in its base case, with a bullish target of $199K fueled by ETF demand, user adoption, and macro drivers.
Key Takeaways
Base-case forecast: Bitcoin to reach $135,000 by year-end.
Bullish scenario: BTC could surge to $199,000 if ETF demand accelerates.
Bearish scenario: Weak equities could drag BTC to $64,000.
ETF inflows now account for 40% of BTC price moves, per Citi.
Citi Refines Bitcoin Price Model for 2025
Wall Street giant Citi (C) has updated its Bitcoin price forecast, projecting BTC at $135,000 by year-end under its base case, and as high as $199,000 in its most bullish scenario.
A more bearish setup — driven by soft equities and weaker macro conditions — pegs Bitcoin at just $64,000, according to the bank’s new report.
What’s Driving Citi’s Bitcoin Forecast?
Citi analysts identified three key drivers shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory:
1- User Adoption: A projected 20% increase in user growth supports BTC around $75,000.
2- Macroeconomic Conditions: Weak equity and gold performance subtract about $3,200 from BTC’s valuation.
3- ETF Demand: Assumed $15 billion in additional ETF flows adds roughly $63,000 to Bitcoin’s price model.
This combination produces the $135K base-case target.
ETF Inflows Now Dominate BTC Price Action
Since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, ETF flows have become a primary market driver.
Citi estimates ETF flows now explain over 40% of BTC price variation.
Institutional participation through ETFs, index inclusion, and regulatory clarity are increasingly important to Bitcoin’s valuation.
Citi’s analysts added:
“Bitcoin’s trajectory now depends as much on capital allocation strategies and investor flows as it does on technological adoption.”
Upside Risk: ETF Demand Surging Faster Than Expected
Citi notes that ETF inflows and user growth are running ahead of projections — a bullish tilt for BTC.
ETF demand accelerating could push BTC past the $135K base case.
Network effects are decaying slower than models predicted, strengthening long-term adoption.
Bitcoin’s Price Scenarios by Year-End
Base case: $135,000
Bullish case: $199,000
Bearish case: $64,000
With ETF demand driving over 40% of recent BTC moves, Citi’s bullish case assumes continued institutional accumulation — while the bearish case reflects macro weakness spilling into crypto markets, according to CoinDesk.
