Key Takeaways
Whale profit-taking wave: On-chain data shows the third major distribution wave since mid-2024, with billions in realized profits.
Miners cashing out: Roughly 15,000 BTC sold after Bitcoin’s July all-time high.
Options traders hedge: Puts targeting $80K–$100K signal expectations of a 10–30% pullback into September.
Q4 upside potential: Analysts, including Capriole’s Charles Edwards, say Bitcoin remains undervalued with fourth-quarter seasonality historically delivering strong returns.
Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Pressure
Bitcoin ended July at $115,644, its highest monthly close ever, but the market is under pressure as whales and miners realize profits.
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant confirmed that Bitcoin’s latest pullback marks the third major whale profit-taking wave since mid-2024.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, said the selling came from both “old and new whales” — the latter likely including institutions and corporates that joined during ETF-driven rallies.
Miners added to the pressure, offloading 15,000 BTC after Bitcoin hit a record $123,300 on July 14.
“These are probably institutions content with their returns and looking to de-risk ahead of a rough Q3,” Dawson said.
Options Traders Brace for Downside
Options data shows traders are preparing for a correction. Many are loading up on $80K, $95K, and $100K put options for August and September, anticipating a 10–30% price pullback in the coming weeks.
Long-Term Models Point to Upside
Despite near-term selling pressure, analysts say Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong.
Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards said Bitcoin is “undervalued” based on his Energy Value model, which links BTC’s intrinsic worth to mining costs.
CryptoQuant’s report added that Bitcoin’s fourth quarter is historically its strongest, with a median return of 52%.
Market Resilience Remains Clear
Even amid profit-taking, Bitcoin’s structure appears intact:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold more than 6% of total supply despite minor outflows.
Whale selling absorbed: A dormant 80,000 BTC wallet sold via Galaxy Digital, briefly pushing BTC down 4% before prices rebounded.
Record monthly close: July’s $115,644 close shows Bitcoin’s ability to maintain strength despite macro uncertainty, according to The Block.
Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, said:
“There’s now a solid foundation of buyers ready to step in, underscoring sustained confidence in Bitcoin as an asset.”
