According to ChainCatcher, the key points of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are as follows:
1) How likely is a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, receive? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary.
2) The wait-and-see period ends in summer, with a possible rate cut in September: The minutes may hint that 'the trajectory of interest rates will depend on the data released in June, July, and August,' and the 'wait-and-see' period may end by late summer. The minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the necessary data to make a decision on rate cuts before the end of summer. If conditions meet expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September.
3) Lowering the interest rate threshold: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting may read more dovishly. At the June meeting, Powell tended to use neutral language, but the minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for lowering interest rates is decreasing.
4) Clues of internal disagreement: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed there was no need to lower interest rates this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 believed there would be two rate cuts, and 2 expected three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues that led to this disagreement. What supports the viewpoint of the 7 Federal Reserve officials who believe that there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025?
5) Concerns about the dual mandate: Previously, the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts indicated that the pace of price increases would accelerate for the remainder of this year, but in 2026, even if interest rates are expected to decline, the pace of price increases would again slow down. Additionally, attention is drawn to whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the labor market.