● Macro Outlook: Countdown to Trump's Tariff Final Review
According to PANews, the market focus in the past week has mainly been on the U.S., with various indices reaching historical highs almost daily, exhibiting extremely enthusiastic sentiment. Notably, the bullish sentiment towards U.S. stocks among asset management companies is increasing, and market sentiment may be a bit overly exuberant. This could lead to overly concentrated positions, and once negative news occurs, such as the tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9, market volatility may intensify. Looking ahead to next week, traders will closely monitor the Fed's release of the monetary policy meeting minutes, the latest statements from FOMC voting members, and the latest developments in Trump's tariff negotiations.
The following are the key points the market will focus on in the new week. On Tuesday, the U.S. June New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations. On Wednesday, China's June CPI year-on-year. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5; 2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. On Friday, 2027 FOMC voting member, San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on the U.S. economic outlook.
● Market News: The EU failed to make a breakthrough in trade talks with the U.S.
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, EU negotiators did not achieve a breakthrough in trade talks with the U.S., and negotiations will continue into the weekend. EU diplomats revealed that the scale of the second round of countermeasures has been reduced from 95 billion euros to 72 billion euros. EU negotiators stated that if a comprehensive trade agreement is not reached, they will seek to extend the tariff suspension period.
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, XS.com analyst Linh Tran stated that the non-farm report shows relatively stable economic growth and is not overheating. This is not enough to prompt the Fed to change its dovish monetary policy stance, so gold prices did not decline further.
● Glassnode analysts say the Bitcoin treasury strategy may have ended
According to PANews, Glassnode Chief Analyst James Check said that the Bitcoin treasury strategy was shorter than expected and may have ended. The key lies in the long-term sustainability of corporate products and strategies. Check pointed out that newly established Bitcoin treasury companies face challenges as investors prefer early adopters.
● Analysts: Market preference for the dollar is weakening
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, Swissquote Senior Market Analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya stated that the preference for the dollar is weakening. Reasons include rising concerns over U.S. Treasury bonds and risks faced by the preference for U.S. bonds. In addition, tariff situations and trade disruptions may negatively impact U.S. economic growth, and the Fed may not be able to support the economy amid rising inflation risks.
According to Foresight News, Chief Economist Hong Hao of the Think Tank Group stated in an interview that Bitcoin will hit new highs in the second half of the year, with ample market liquidity, and Bitcoin prices are very sensitive to liquidity. He also predicts that U.S. stocks will continue to hit new highs.
● Grayscale: Believes Ethereum can benefit from the U.S. cryptocurrency-friendly policy shift
According to PANews, Grayscale stated on platform X that Ethereum may benefit from the shift in U.S. cryptocurrency-friendly policies. New legislation such as the Genius Act may clarify stablecoin rules, promote investment, and accelerate the adoption of smart contracts. With strong development activity and expansion plans, Ethereum is prepared to benefit from this.
