According to PANews, the market focus in the past week was mainly on the U.S., with various indices reaching historical highs almost daily, exhibiting extreme enthusiasm. Notably, asset management companies' bullish sentiment towards U.S. stocks has been rising, and market sentiment may be somewhat overexcited. This could lead to overly concentrated positions, and if negative news arises, such as the tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9, market volatility may intensify. Looking ahead to next week, traders will closely monitor the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, the latest statements from FOMC voting members, and the latest developments in Trump's tariff negotiations.
The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week. On Tuesday, the U.S. June New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations. On Wednesday, China's June CPI year-on-year. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5; 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. On Friday, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will discuss the U.S. economic outlook.
After the release of a significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll report this week, U.S. data is expected to enter a quiet period next week. According to LSEG data, the market now believes there is only a 4% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, and it will not be fully priced in before October. Investors are focused on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index to be released next Tuesday and the initial jobless claims data to be released next Thursday, looking for the latest clues on the labor market.