According to a report by Deep Tide TechFlow, on July 2, Goldman Sachs indicated that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a dovish stance, four market scenarios will emerge: pure dovish policy shock, decline in growth expectations, coexistence of dovishness and growth decline, and simultaneous dovishness and growth increase.
Analysis shows that a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening of the euro/yen/franc, and an increase in gold prices are the most stable trends across all scenarios, while U.S. stock performance depends on growth prospects. The 'dovish + growth increase' scenario is most favorable for risk assets.
If summer employment and inflation data worsen, it may rekindle growth concerns. The market has already begun pricing in the Federal Reserve's easing policy, and future trends will depend on economic data performance.