According to Cointelegraph, data from Avenir Group and Glassnode shows that the majority of inflows into the spot BTC ETF are unhedged long positions, indicating the true conviction of institutional investors rather than short-term arbitrage strategies.
The research points out that BTC continues to behave like a traditional macro asset, showing strong correlations with stocks, gold, and liquidity cycles, while inversely tracking the dollar and high-yield credit spreads.
Reports from Glassnode and Avenir Group state that the launch of the U.S. spot BTC ETF is a milestone for the crypto market, but whether the capital inflow is genuine remains in question.
Researchers state that despite strict models filtering out arbitrage activities, the data still shows a strong correlation between unhedged demand and inflows into the spot BTC ETF, indicating a firm commitment from institutional investors.
Analysts point out that the steady increase in spot ETF holdings signifies a change in the BTC market structure, with BTC being viewed as an institutional asset, bringing more stable capital and liquidity.
The research also indicates that BTC is increasingly resembling a macro asset, closely related to broader financial conditions, positively correlated with traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold, while inversely tracking the dollar index and high-yield spreads.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, emphasizes the connection between global money supply and BTC prices, estimating that for every $1 trillion increase in global money supply, the BTC price could rise by $13,861.
