According to Jinshi Data, the Office of the Chief Investment Officer of UBS Wealth Management said that the United States may avoid a full recession this year, but slowing growth and a weak labor market may prompt the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in the coming months. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September this year, and the annual rate cut may reach 75 basis points.
Although the peak of pessimism caused by Trump's trade policy may have passed, continued uncertainty may still increase market volatility. The current high bond yields help seek durable income. Historical data shows that the probability of bonds outperforming cash increases as the holding period increases. UBS maintains its view that high-rated and investment-grade bonds are "attractive" and expects such bonds to achieve mid-single-digit returns in the next 12 months.