November Bitcoin returns: -17.67% 2nd worst Nov performance | Kryptent – For Your Future Guidance on Binance Square

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November Bitcoin returns: -17.67% 2nd worst Nov performance ever

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BTC

92,264.62

-0.94%

14

0

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Kryptent – For Your Future Guidance

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Since July 23rd, we see that the most of the selling pressure on $BTC has been happening from Binance with negative CVD of $37 billion. The selling pressure size almost double than Bybit on the 2nd place with $21 billion in total. #BTC I know that Binance is the leading centralized exchange right now but this happened when the majority of the position in the exchange are in net-long position. Is the dump coming from the Binance's LP with the purpose of liquidating their clients? or this is just coincidence, just whales selling on Binance? This kind of condition were also happening back in October 2025 and several times in 2021.. You know what I mean..

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It's been pretty boring day, so I just do some kind of research and found out a very interesting coin out there. $WLFI , I see some whales are accumulating this coin in the last 1 week. So, it's worth to see imo. Based on the technical analysis, it looks pretty good, breaking out and retest + extremely negative funding rate as well., opening door for a short squeeze. Worth to be in the watchlist.

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The main issue right now in the crypto market is this #MSTR FUD, not the Japan carry trade unwind. People misinterpreted these 2 issue. Don't be in the wrong side. Japan carry trade unwind has been pricing in partially since 2024 (from retails side), the evidence is that CFTC data indicates that speculative net positioning has flipped positive (net-long). Some may argue that the Japan pension fund of $2.5 trillion AUM hasn't unwounded this trade but that's not the mandate for the pension fund (everyone who have been in the wall street know this). They don't do it like speculators, trigger the switch in one single session. Japan pension fund will start to unwind too but they will do it gradually as the index price rallies higher. So shut your favorite influencers mouth up who say the drop is because of Japan hikes the rate!

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The biggest FUD today is coming from the #MSTR latest announcement. Long story short, the announcement result 1. MSTR is raising fund as USD cash reserve for dividend yield. 2. Saylor stated that they can "occasionally" sell BTC if the mNAV is dropping below 1 and if they are running out of the cash to pay dividend yield. After analyzing further, market participants don't like this change in regime of the MSTR new corporate action. - First, they said that they will never sell $BTC and now "never" will always have exception. - Selling BTC to pay dividend yield (if any event happen during the running out of cash) means that market must repricing for additional supply of 650k #BTC that is being held by MSTR. More supply = lower price. - After the statement, we finally know that MSTR will no longer buy more BTC as the mNAV is now hovering around 1.0x. This means that the biggest buyers which has been driving the BTC's price to ATH of $126k is no longer around, we are losing one of the big buyers. I think with this new outlook and new change in regime, market is panicking and this is becoming more of structural risk to MSTR as well. Imagine that if MSTR has to be forced to sell their BTC's holding, it will cause a headwind for BTC. As I stated previously last year, MSTR becoming the real risk for BTC is becoming true and if we don't get any sign of good development regarding this issue, we should see further downside movement to the MSTR's average cost (now at $74k).

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Today, we are seeing something brewing in the background about #BTC . I was so bullish back in the last few days because I see the fundamental flow starts to gain some momentum. However, the market is giving us another headwind which could push further downside move to $74k level. 1. We are seeing odds of Japan rate hike to above 70% earlier today, opening possibility for Japan carry trade unwind. 2. MSTR just announce $1.44 billion of cash dividend reserve which is now changing the whole vision of the DATs narrative. I'll explain it further today about these 2 concerns in the market soon but I think we're going a little bit lower (maybe to sweep $80k floor or worst case at $74k $BTC ).

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