🚨 Rate Cut Hopes on the Line: Data Deluge Hits Market Before Thanksgiving! 🦃
This short holiday week is packed with crucial U.S. economic data that will likely lock in—or crush—the current 71% chance of a December rate cut.
Key Market Movers by Day
Tuesday's Focus (Inflation & Spending):
Producer Price Index (PPI): Measures wholesale inflation. A cooler print is needed to affirm the dovish Fed expectations.
Retail Sales: The definitive measure of consumer spending. Any weakness suggests a faltering consumer ahead of the holidays.
Wednesday's Focus (Labor & Investment):
Initial Jobless Claims: Latest check on labor market health.
Durable Goods Orders: Measures business investment.
Volatility Alert
Markets are closed Thursday and have an early close Friday.
Thin trading late in the week will amplify reactions to any surprise data.
The Bottom Line: Watch Tuesday's PPI and Retail Sales. If they are soft, expect the market to celebrate the nearly guaranteed rate cut. If they are hot, prepare for a sharp and volatile reversal.
