The Bitcoin dip below the crucial $100,000 level was a serious market gut-check. Touching the low $90,000s, this move demands an honest analytical discussion: is this a deep bear trend, or a necessary market purge?
1. The Macro Driver: Liquidity Drain
Forget simple trading narratives. The primary force appears to be a systemic liquidity drain driven by the US financial system. As the US Treasury General Account (TGA) swells and the Federal Reserve continues Quantitative Tightening (QT), less 'risk-on' capital is available. BTC is highly sensitive to this lack of dollar liquidity, leading to rapid price compression.
Interestingly, while retail and leveraged positions are selling, institddresses holding 1,000+ BTC are showing signs of continued accumulation. This divergence suggests smart money may view this dip as a buying opportunity.
2. The Technical Test
Technically, losing both the $100K psychological mark and key Moving Averages (50-Day, 200-Day) confirms short-term bearish control. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory, signaling the selling may soon be exhausted.
The $89,000 - $90,000 range is now the make-or-break support zone. A sustained hold confirms consolidation; a break opens the door to a deeper correction.
My Take: This is a crucial flush-out combined with macro headwinds. I'm remaining cautious but accumulating slowly within this $90K range, waiting for a daily close back above $100,000 to confirm the low is in.
What are your thoughts? Are you buying the dip, or waiting for lower prices??????