According to Cointelegraph, the likelihood of U.S. regulators approving a wave of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is now a near certainty, indicating a continued pro-crypto shift at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bloomberg analysts Erich Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised their odds for the vast majority of crypto ETF approvals to “90% or higher,” citing “very positive” engagement from the SEC. The analysts also suggested that the SEC “likely” views cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE) as commodities, a designation that would place them outside of its immediate jurisdiction.
The timing of approvals and the launch of spot products remains unclear, with speculation that the process could take several months and may extend beyond October. Asset managers are eager to replicate the success of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, which saw demand far exceed expectations in the first year, culminating in the most successful U.S. ETF launch of all time. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, trading under the ticker IBIT, has been the most successful product, surpassing $70 billion in assets after recording 31 straight days of inflows. This milestone was reached in just 341 days, highlighting the strong demand for Bitcoin ETFs.
Despite Bitcoin's success, replicating this with other cryptocurrencies may prove challenging, given the lukewarm demand for Ether (ETH) ETFs since their launch last July. Although ETF inflows have improved in recent months, Glassnode reported that by May, the average ETH ETF investor remained “substantially underwater.” While demand for other crypto assets could eventually outpace Ether, altcoins are unlikely to erode Bitcoin’s dominance in the ETF market anytime soon. Investors are closely monitoring several proposals, such as Franklin Templeton’s XRP and SOL ETFs, which were recently opened for public comments by the SEC.
