uptober

With the arrival of October, global financial markets are facing a series of major events and key data tests, and investors need to closely follow the trends of this "super week."

The first and foremost concern is the potential government shutdown crisis that the U.S. government may face. If Congress fails to pass a temporary spending bill by September 29, the federal government will enter a shutdown state starting October 1. Some analyses predict that the probability of a shutdown exceeds 75%, lasting for about three weeks, with a weekly drag on GDP of approximately 0.15 percentage points. More concerning is that this could lead to delays in the release of important economic indicators such as non-farm employment and CPI, increasing the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decision-making.

This week will see the release of several major indicators in terms of economic data:

1. October 3 (Friday): The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September will be released. Following the significantly lower-than-expected data in August, this data will be a key indicator for assessing the future direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

2. October 1st (Tuesday): The US ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data will be released. These data will reflect whether the manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and rebound, as well as whether the cooling trend in the job market continues.

3. September 30 (Monday): China will release the official manufacturing PMI data for September. The market is关注 whether it can return to the expansion range and the recovery situation on the demand side.

In addition, there are several focal events worth following:

- China will welcome an 8-day Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday (from October 1 to 8), during which the A-share market will be closed. The tourism market is expected to experience a "super golden week."

- The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party will launch the presidential election procedure on October 4, and the new Prime Minister is expected to take office at the end of the month. This may trigger fluctuations in the yen and the Japanese government bond market.

- The leading company in the humanoid robot field, Yushu Technology, plans to submit an IPO application between October and December, attracting market attention.

- South Korea has implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese tour groups, effective from September 29 and lasting until June next year.

In summary, at the beginning of October, the global markets will face challenges from multiple factors such as data, politics, and policies. Investors need to remain vigilant and closely follow the potential impact of these events on the prices of various assets.