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$BTC just entered its fastest bear market ever! Over $1 billion liquidated, ETFs bleeding, crypto cap down 33%. But here's the twist: the NFCI liquidity index is falling, and historically, that has led to major BTC rallies within 4–6 weeks. The breakdown might be the setup.
Context in a Nutshell
Bitcoin has pulled back and crashed into a bear market at record speed, dropping to $80,000 in one of the sharpest multi-week sell-offs in crypto history. But beneath the panic, macro data and historical analysis suggest the washout could be clearing the runway for a powerful year-end rebound.
What You Should Know
Bitcoin dropped to $80,600, extending weekly losses past 10% and triggering its fastest bear-market entry on record. BTC's monthly drawdown hit 23%, the steepest since June 2022.The drawdown pushed Bitcoin down to retest the 100-week EMA, marking the same support zone where the current bull cycle began in October 2023.Over $1B in futures liquidations hit the market as leverage unwound aggressively.The total crypto market cap has fallen 33% since October, from $4.2 trillion to $2.8 trillion. The sell-off is being labeled "structural selling," not just short-term panic.Digital asset investment products saw $3.2 billion in outflows over three weeks, including $1.4 billion from Bitcoin and $689 million from Ethereum, some of the largest of 2025.Bitcoin spot ETF flows remain negative, and BlackRock's ETF is on track for its largest weekly outflow ever.However, macro data highlights a potential upcoming bullish shift: the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is trending down and has historically led BTC rallies by 4–6 weeks.December could introduce a liquidity injection as the Fed begins rotating MBS into Treasury bills, similar to the 2019 "not-QE" event that sparked a 40% rally in BTC.If NFCI continues to fall, data suggests Bitcoin could turn up sharply in late December to early January.
Why Does This Matter?
Markets rarely reverse quietly. Bitcoin's rapid structural unwind, leverage collapse, institutional exits, and ETF outflows are the exact kind of capitulation that has historically preceded major bullish reversals. If macro liquidity continues to trend higher, BTC could be positioned for a cyclical upswing just as traders give up hope.
This may look like a breakdown, but the data suggests it could be the storm before the breakout. The next Bitcoin trend may already be loading.
#bitcoin #BTC
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