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Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) announced its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing robust growth in both revenue and net income. The company’s revenue for Q4 2024 reached $13.53 billion, marking a significant 45% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This growth was primarily driven by a 48% rise in volume, with Mounjaro and Zepbound being key contributors. However, this was slightly offset by a 4% decline due to lower realized prices. The non-incretin revenue also experienced a 20% growth over the previous year, highlighting the company’s diverse product portfolio. In terms of profitability, Eli Lilly reported a remarkable 102% increase in earnings per share (EPS) on a reported basis, reaching $4.88. On a non-GAAP basis, EPS surged by 114% to $5.32. This impressive performance included $0.19 of acquired in-process research and development charges. The company’s gross margin for the quarter expanded by 47% to $11.13 billion, with a gross margin percentage of 82.2%, reflecting a favorable product mix despite the pressure from lower prices. The company’s research and development expenses rose by 18% to $3.02 billion, accounting for 22.3% of the revenue. This increase was driven by continued investments in its early and late-stage portfolio. Additionally, marketing, selling, and administrative expenses saw a 26% rise to $2.42 billion, primarily due to promotional efforts for ongoing and future product launches. These investments underscore Eli Lilly’s commitment to maintaining its growth trajectory through innovation and market expansion.

Eli Lilly Reports 45% y/y Revenue Growth, Driven by Key Products

When comparing Eli Lilly’s Q4 2024 performance against market expectations, the results present a mixed picture. The company’s revenue of $13.53 billion fell short of the anticipated $13.78 billion. Despite this, the revenue growth of 45% year-over-year remains a testament to the strong demand for its key products, such as Mounjaro and Zepbound, which continue to drive volume increases.On the earnings front, Eli Lilly exceeded expectations. The non-GAAP EPS of $5.32 surpassed the expected EPS of $5.3, highlighting the company’s ability to manage costs effectively and optimize its product mix. This performance indicates that while revenue targets were not fully met, the company was able to leverage its operational efficiencies to deliver higher-than-expected earnings per share.Notable developments during the quarter included the U.S. FDA approval of Zepbound for a new indication and the approval of Omvoh for Crohn’s disease. These advancements not only bolster Eli Lilly’s product pipeline but also support its long-term growth strategy.

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Eli Lilly Expects Revenue in the $58 Billion to $61 Billion Range for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Eli Lilly has provided optimistic guidance, projecting revenue in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion. This represents a potential growth of approximately 32% compared to 2024, driven by the continued success of recently launched products such as Zepbound and Mounjaro, as well as potential new product launches. The company also expects to expand its manufacturing capacity significantly, aiming to produce at least 1.6 times the amount of salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.Eli Lilly has set its EPS guidance for 2025 between $22.05 and $23.55 on a reported basis and $22.50 to $24.00 on a non-GAAP basis. This range reflects the company’s confidence in its ability to sustain earnings growth through strategic investments and operational improvements. The anticipated effective tax rate for 2025 is approximately 16%, which aligns with the company’s financial planning and tax strategy.In terms of operational efficiency, Eli Lilly expects the ratio of (Gross Margin – OPEX) / Revenue to be between 40.5% and 42.5% on a reported basis, and 41.5% to 43.5% on a non-GAAP basis. This indicates a continued focus on optimizing operational costs while driving revenue growth. Additionally, other income (expense) is projected to be an expense in the range of $700 million to $600 million, primarily due to higher interest expenses.

Eli Lilly’s strategic outlook remains positive, with several initiatives underway to support future growth. The company is actively investing in expanding its manufacturing capacity, as evidenced by a $3 billion investment in its facility in Kenosha County, Wisconsin.

This expansion aims to enhance its global injectable product manufacturing network, ensuring the company can meet the growing demand for its products.The company’s commitment to innovation is further demonstrated by its ongoing clinical trials and regulatory submissions. Eli Lilly anticipates several important Phase 3 readouts in 2025, which, if positive, could accelerate its growth trajectory.

The acquisition of Scorpion Therapeutics’ mutant-selective PI3Kα inhibitor program also highlights Eli Lilly’s focus on strengthening its oncology portfolio.Moreover, Eli Lilly continues to prioritize shareholder value through a $15 billion share repurchase program and a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend for the seventh consecutive year.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: HON) reported a solid performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, with sales reaching $10.1 billion, marking a 7% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. The company’s organic sales grew by 2%, excluding the impact of a significant agreement with Bombardier, which had a notable effect on the financials. This growth was particularly driven by strong performance in defense and space, as well as building solutions, which saw double-digit organic sales growth. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Honeywell’s backlog grew 11% to a record $35.3 billion, showcasing the company’s ability to secure future business.

Honeywell Reports Double Beat for Fourth-Quarter 2024

Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were reported at $1.96, representing a 3% increase year over year. However, adjusted EPS showed a decline of 8% to $2.47, although this figure exceeded the previous guidance. The adjusted EPS would have increased by 9% if not for the $0.45 impact of the Bombardier agreement. Operating income saw a 10% rise, while the operating margin expanded by 50 basis points to 17.3%. Segment profit decreased by 8% to $2.1 billion, with the segment margin contracting by 350 basis points to 20.9%.

The company’s cash flow from operations stood at $2.3 billion, down 23% from the previous year, and free cash flow was reported at $1.9 billion, a 27% decrease. Despite these declines, the company’s overall performance in the fourth quarter was strong, with several business segments contributing positively to the results.

When comparing Honeywell’s performance to market expectations, the company exceeded the anticipated revenue of $9.97 billion, achieving $10.1 billion in sales for the fourth quarter. This represents a notable achievement, as Honeywell managed to surpass the expectations despite facing various economic challenges.

Regarding earnings per share, the anticipated EPS was $2.46, and Honeywell reported an adjusted EPS of $2.47, slightly surpassing expectations. While the adjusted EPS showed a decline compared to the previous year, it still managed to exceed the guidance provided earlier.

The company’s ability to exceed both revenue and EPS expectations demonstrates effective management and strategic execution. Honeywell’s leadership, under CEO Vimal Kapur, expressed confidence in the company’s revitalized portfolio optimization strategy and operational excellence, which are expected to drive further value creation for stakeholders.

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Honeywell Anticipates EPS in the Range of $10.10 to $10.50

Honeywell has issued guidance that reflects cautious optimism. The company expects sales to range between $39.6 billion and $40.6 billion, with organic sales growth projected at 2% to 5%. This indicates a steady outlook for growth, driven by continued strength in key business areas and strategic initiatives.

Honeywell anticipates an adjusted EPS for 2025 in the range of $10.10 to $10.50, representing an increase of 2% to 6%. The company also expects operating cash flow to be between $6.7 billion and $7.1 billion, with free cash flow projected at $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion.

The company’s guidance assumes a mid-year close of the sale of its Personal Protective Equipment business, which is expected to further streamline operations and enhance focus on core areas.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

In a hyper consumerist culture like the US, branding is king. And the annual Super Bowl ad extravaganza serves as the platform to show which company has the best vibes on offer. In turn, these companies, showcasing their zeitgeist mastery, tend to receive stock price boosts.

One academic study from 2010 concluded that “two to four days before and after there is a significant positive stock price effect”. This stands to reason as companies that deploy well-conceived and received ads are more likely to increase their standing in the minds of consumers.

Some researchers, Tomkovick and Yelkur from the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, believe that Super Bowl ads are not the primary drivers for the stock boost effect, but as the latest and more visible carryovers of wider marketing campaigns.

Nonetheless, the existence of the effect is enough of a signal to pay attention. In particular, to these stocks that have seen prior Super Bowl boosts, as other companies move to The Sphere for more consistent gains.

Anheuser Busch Inbev NV (NYSE: BUD)

In early April 2023, this beer conglomerate picked transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney as the brand ambassador for Bud Light. The public reception was expectedly negative, followed by protracted backlash and boycott calls.

Nonetheless, the impact of this incident on BUD performance was short-lived, dropping from $65 range to $53 per share by June. At that time, the company launched Easy to Summer commercials, in stark thematic contrast to the controversial trans push. Although the stock has been more volatile, it recovered by January 2024. 

Anheuser’s shares reached a 52-week peak mid-May 2024 at $67.49, now priced at $48.82 per share. The recovery was expected given that Anheuser owns hundreds of beer brands and has a sophisticated supply chain implementing High Density Storage (HDS) and Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (AS/RS).

Moreover, the Trump admin purged all DEI initiatives from the federal framework, alongside “restoring biological truth”, thus shifting culture away from the Mulvaney era. This alleviates pressure from companies to attempt similar marketing gambits and Anheuser Busch is likely to continue its redemption arc.

At previous Super Bowls, the beer company had well received ad launches, related to Game of Thrones series and Sex and the City. Both resulted in minor stock boosts.

Over a one year period, BUD stock is down 21.27%, presenting a buy the dip opportunity before another upward cycle. At the moment, the average BUD price target is $67.39 per share, according to WSJ’s forecasting data, suggesting a significant upside just at the right time.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)

In 2020, Microsoft made an unusual We All Win Super Bowl ad featuring an adaptive controller for disabled children. This was a clever strategy, as Microsoft is too omnipresent to need branding. Rather, it relied on softening its image, which turned out effective with a few percentages worth of stock boost.

In 2024, Microsoft’s Super Bowl presence was AI-centered, featuring the company’s Copilot AI push. Just as MS Office and Windows OS are centerpieces of Microsoft’s dominance, Copilot aims to be the AI layer on top to automate tasks, as a more fine-tuned version of OpenAI’s large language model (LLM).

This year, Microsoft will not show up at the Super Bowl specifically, but the company is actively utilizing Las Vegas’ The Sphere.

Over the last five years, MSFT stock is up 124%, which is lower than the company’s revenue increase of 71.4% to $261.8 billion by the end of 2024. In the latest earnings ending December 31, 2024, Microsoft reported $69.6 billion revenue, an uptick of 12% from the year-ago quarter.

It appears that AI benefits are kicking in, as the new business tracked 175% yoy revenue growth to $13 billion. Therefore, investors should not only view Microsoft as a blue chip stock, legacy software stock, but also as an AI stock that is the most likely to bring AI to the masses.

Presently priced at $412.37, the average MSFT price target is $508.60 per WSJ forecasting data.

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Nike (NYSE: NKE)

The sporting goods company has a long history of high-profile marketing at Super Bowl. The Sphere is also to take that mantle this year. At the same time, Nike has been in trouble in recent years, especially following a particularly poor earrings call at the end of June 2024. 

Accordingly, NKE stock is down 24.6% over a one year period. Currently at $75.15, NKE shares are light years away from the all-time high of $170.84 in November 2021. The present price is also lower than the 52-week average of $84.95 per share. 

Nonetheless, picking stocks that are down are the often most profitable opportunities. The question is, does Nike have a comeback strategy? 

Under the previous CEO, John Donahoe, Nike underwent several restructuring efforts, including the move towards direct-to-consumer model. This turned out to be a bad move, opening up opportunities for New Balance, On, Adidas and other competitors.

In short, the company needs to move away from its outdated reliance on legacy Air Jordans, as new brands are more popular with the younger crowd. The new CEO Elliott Hill seems to be aware of this, as he emphasized the need to enhance Nike’s digital presence. 

Hill also believes that excessive discounting eroded Nike’s premium branding as well as overreliance on lifestyle instead of core sports. If Hill is proven right, Nike could be a big gainer for investors in 2025. 

At the moment, Piper Sandler and BMO Capital analysts placed the NKE price targets at $90 and $95 respectively. Per WSJ, the average NKE price target is $84.57 per share.

Do you watch the Super Bowl for sports or as a media spectacle? Let us know in the comments below.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Beyond the Super Bowl: Comeback Stocks for 2025 appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is facing significant challenges on two fronts, affecting its stock performance and business operations. The announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration and a potential investigation by China’s antitrust authorities have created uncertainty for the tech giant. These developments have resulted in a noticeable dip in Apple’s stock value and raised concerns about its future profitability and market strategies.

Apple’s Woes Compound in China

The recent imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports by President Trump has had an immediate impact on Apple’s stock, which fell by over 3%. This decline reflects investor apprehension about the potential effects on Apple’s profit margins, given that the company relies heavily on Chinese assembly for its products. Analysts speculate that Apple may pass these increased costs onto consumers, a move that could have broader implications, including possible backlash from the Trump administration. The tariffs are expected to be implemented soon, adding urgency to Apple’s need to address these financial pressures.

In addition to tariff-related challenges, Apple is also under scrutiny from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation, which is considering an investigation into the company’s app store practices. The focus is on Apple’s 30% commission on in-app purchases and its restrictions on external payment services. This inquiry could exacerbate existing trade tensions between the United States and China. Although the investigation was initially contemplated before the current administration, its timing coincides with the tariff announcements, potentially leading to formal action if Apple does not modify its practices.

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Despite the Recent Dip, Apple’s Financial Metrics Remain Strong

Apple’s stock has shown volatility in light of these developments. The stock opened at $228.49 and reached a day high of $230.515, before settling at $229.32 at the time of writing.Despite the recent dip, Apple has maintained a strong market presence with a market capitalization of $3.445 trillion. Over the past year, the stock has fluctuated between a low of $164.08 and a high of $260.10. Analysts continue to recommend buying Apple stock, with a target mean price of $252.21, indicating confidence in the company’s long-term potential despite current challenges.

Apple’s financial metrics reveal a robust foundation, with a trailing P/E ratio of 36.34 and a forward P/E ratio of 27.77. The company’s total revenue stands at $391.03 billion, supported by a trailing EPS of $6.31 and a forward EPS of $8.31. However, the debt to equity ratio of 209.06% and a price to book ratio of 60.88 highlight areas of financial leverage that may require attention. Analysts have set a high target price of $325.00 for Apple, reflecting optimism about its ability to navigate current obstacles and sustain growth in the future.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Apple’s Stock Dips Amid New U.S. Tariffs and Chinese Antitrust Concerns appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Electronic Arts (NYSE: EA) recently announced its third-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, revealing a slight miss on Wall Street’s earnings projections. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.83, falling short of the anticipated $2.88. Revenue for the quarter stood at $2.22 billion, marking a 6.4% decrease compared to the same period last year and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.25 billion. Despite these setbacks, EA unveiled a $1 billion accelerated stock repurchase plan, which buoyed investor sentiment, leading to a 2% increase in premarket trading.

EA Recent Financial Performance Hit by Decline in In-Game Spending

EA’s recent financial performance has been impacted by a decline in in-game spending, particularly for its popular title “FC 25,” as well as underwhelming results from its new Dragon Age release. The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, although it set the upper limits of its earnings and bookings guidance lower than consensus expectations. Analysts from Bank of America have pointed to potential gameplay tuning issues in FC 25 as a factor reducing player engagement. Nonetheless, EA’s CEO, Andrew Wilson, expressed optimism regarding the company’s long-term growth prospects, highlighting the success of the EA SPORTS FC 25 Team of the Year event as a positive indicator.

Following the announcement of the earnings report and stock buyback plan, EA’s stock exhibited positive movement. The stock opened on February 5, 2025, at $127.34, up from the previous close of $121.25. By mid-morning, the price had climbed to $128.535, with fluctuations observed within the day, reaching a low of $126.21 and a high of $130.56. Over the past year, EA’s stock has experienced a range from a low of $115.21 to a high of $168.5. The recent recovery from January’s low to the current price indicates renewed investor confidence, possibly fueled by the buyback announcement.

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Analyst Remain Optimistic on EA Stock

EA’s market metrics provide further insight into its current standing. The company’s market capitalization is valued at $33.71 billion, and it maintains a dividend rate of $0.76 with a yield of 0.62%. The trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 32.71, while the forward P/E ratio is notably lower at 17.07, suggesting expectations of improved future earnings. With a buy recommendation and a target mean price of $143.78, analysts appear cautiously optimistic about the stock’s potential, despite the fiscal year 2025 guidance falling short of Wall Street estimates.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

AMD’s stock (NYSE: AMD) experienced a sharp decline after Citi downgraded its rating from Buy to Neutral. This downgrade was attributed to concerns about the company’s slowing AI growth, weaker margin leverage, and inventory buildup. As a result, AMD’s shares dropped over 10% in premarket trading, with Citi also lowering its price target from $175 to $110. Despite AMD reporting better-than-expected revenue for the fourth quarter, the market’s focus on inventory and operational inefficiencies overshadowed these positive results. The stock opened at $107.685 on February 5, 2025, and continued to hover around $107.35 later in the morning, marking a significant drop from its previous close of $119.50.

AMD Posts Disappointing Outlook for AI Growth

The decline in AMD’s stock price was further exacerbated by the company’s disappointing outlook for AI growth, particularly in its data center business. Despite a 69% increase in data center revenue, the figures fell short of analysts’ expectations, raising concerns about AMD’s ability to compete with industry leaders like Nvidia. The stock’s day low reached $106.5, which also marked its 52-week low, while the day high was $108.5. This volatility reflects investor apprehension about AMD’s future prospects in the AI market, despite the company’s efforts to enhance its product offerings. Analysts remain divided, with recommendations ranging from a high target price of $250 to a low of $90, indicating uncertainty about the company’s trajectory.

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Markets Finding Stability Post Trump Tariff Tantrum

In contrast to AMD’s challenges, the broader stock market demonstrated stability despite geopolitical uncertainties. President Trump’s tariff plans have not significantly deterred Wall Street’s optimistic outlook. The S&P 500 showed a slight increase, with volatility remaining within expected limits. Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays continue to project strong earnings growth, with the S&P 500’s year-over-year earnings growth estimated at 13.2% for the fourth quarter. This bullish sentiment is driven by expectations of continued earnings acceleration, suggesting that the market is poised to weather the impacts of trade tensions.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Fiserv, Inc. (NYSE: FI), a prominent player in the payments and financial services technology sector, reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024. The company achieved a 7% increase in GAAP revenue, reaching $5.25 billion for the quarter compared to the same period in the previous year. This growth was driven by an 11% rise in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 3% increase in the Financial Solutions segment. For the entire year, Fiserv’s GAAP revenue also grew by 7% to $20.46 billion, with the Merchant Solutions segment experiencing a 10% growth and the Financial Solutions segment growing by 4%.

Fiserv, Inc. Reports 13% y/y Growth in GAAP EPS in Fourth-Quarter

The company’s GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter was $1.64, marking a 13% increase from the previous year. For the full year, GAAP EPS rose by 8% to $5.38. These results were achieved despite a $595 million non-cash impairment charge related to one of Fiserv’s equity method investments and a $147 million non-cash settlement charge for terminated pension plans in the fourth quarter. The operating margin also improved, standing at 31.8% for the fourth quarter and 28.7% for the full year, up from 29.4% and 26.3%, respectively, in the previous year.

Adjusted revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 7% to $4.90 billion, while for the full year, it reached $19.12 billion, also reflecting a 7% increase. Organic revenue growth was particularly strong, with a 13% rise in the fourth quarter, driven by a 23% growth in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 4% growth in the Financial Solutions segment. For the entire year, organic revenue grew by 16%, led by a 27% growth in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 6% growth in the Financial Solutions segment. Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter increased by 15% to $2.51, while for the full year, it rose by 17% to $8.80.

Fiserv’s fourth-quarter performance exceeded market expectations, showcasing its robust business model. The company reported an adjusted EPS of $2.51, surpassing the anticipated EPS of $2.49. This 15% increase in adjusted EPS compared to the previous year underscores Fiserv’s ability to deliver consistent earnings growth, driven by strong operational performance across its segments.

Revenue expectations were also met, with the company reporting $5.25 billion in GAAP revenue for the quarter, slightly above the expected $4.96 billion. The Merchant Solutions segment played a significant role in this achievement, with an 11% growth rate, while the Financial Solutions segment contributed with a 3% increase. The adjusted revenue of $4.90 billion for the quarter, although slightly below GAAP revenue, reflects a solid 7% growth from the previous year, aligning closely with market expectations.

The company’s ability to exceed EPS expectations while closely meeting revenue forecasts highlights its operational efficiency and strategic focus on high-margin segments. The adjusted operating margin for the fourth quarter increased by 180 basis points to 42.9%, indicating improved profitability and effective cost management.

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Fiserv Expects Adjusted EPS in the Range of $10.10 to $10.30 for Full Year 2025

Fiserv has provided optimistic guidance, projecting organic revenue growth between 10% and 12%. The company also anticipates adjusted EPS to range from $10.10 to $10.30, representing growth of 15% to 17%. This guidance reflects Fiserv’s confidence in its ongoing initiatives within the Merchant and Financial Solutions segments, which have already shown promising early results.

Frank Bisignano, Chairman and CEO of Fiserv, expressed confidence in the company’s ability to meet or exceed its medium-term outlook, emphasizing the success of its product, client, and distribution strategies. The guidance for 2025 is built on Fiserv’s commitment to operational excellence and its strategic focus on enhancing its integrated portfolio of products and solutions. The company’s realignment of its reportable segments in 2024 is expected to further support this growth trajectory.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) reported remarkable financial outcomes, showcasing significant growth across various metrics. The company achieved net sales of $4.561 billion, marking a 22.4% increase on a reported basis compared to the previous year. This growth was even more pronounced on an operational basis, reaching 23.1%, and on an organic basis, at 19.5%.Additionally, Boston Scientific reported a GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders of $566 million, translating to $0.38 per share, compared to $504 million or $0.34 per share in the same period last year. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.70, a significant improvement from $0.55 a year ago.

Boston Scientific Reports Better than Expected Results with $0.70 Adj. EPS

The company’s MedSurg segment reported net sales growth of 12.4% on a reported basis, with operational growth at 13.0% and organic growth at 7.0%. The Cardiovascular segment demonstrated even more robust growth, with a reported increase of 28.8%, operational growth of 29.5%, and organic growth of 27.4%. Regionally, the United States led the way with a 30.7% increase in both reported and operational sales. Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) saw a 10.8% increase in reported sales, while the Asia-Pacific region experienced an 11.1% uptick. Latin America and Canada (LACA) reported a modest 4.6% increase, while emerging markets saw a 12.4% rise in reported sales.

Boston Scientific’s fourth-quarter performance exceeded market expectations in several key areas. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.70, surpassing the anticipated range of $0.64 to $0.66. This achievement demonstrates the company’s ability to outperform its projected earnings, driven by strong sales growth and operational efficiency. The company’s net sales of $4.561 billion also exceeded the expected revenue of $4.41 billion, highlighting its robust market presence and successful execution of strategic initiatives.

Despite this strong performance, the GAAP net income per share of $0.38 fell short of the company’s guidance range of $0.41 to $0.43. This discrepancy can be attributed to various factors, including amortization expenses, acquisition-related charges, and restructuring costs, which impacted the GAAP earnings.

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BSX Estimates GAAP EPS Between $1.86 and $1.93 for Full Year 2025

Boston Scientific has provided optimistic guidance for both the first quarter and the full year of 2025. The company estimates net sales growth for the full year to be in the range of 12.5% to 14.5% on a reported basis and 10% to 12% on an organic basis. For the first quarter of 2025, the company anticipates net sales growth of 17% to 19% on a reported basis and 14% to 16% on an organic basis. These projections reflect the company’s confidence in its ongoing growth initiatives and market strategy.

In terms of earnings, Boston Scientific estimates GAAP EPS for the full year 2025 to range between $1.86 and $1.93, with adjusted EPS projected between $2.80 and $2.87. For the first quarter, the company expects GAAP EPS to range from $0.43 to $0.45, while adjusted EPS is anticipated to be between $0.66 and $0.68. This guidance indicates the company’s focus on maintaining strong financial performance while navigating potential challenges in the market.

Boston Scientific’s strategic initiatives and recent developments have positioned the company for continued growth and innovation. The successful launch of the FARAPULSE Pulsed Field Ablation System and the positive clinical trial results for the WATCHMAN FLX Left Atrial Appendage Closure Device demonstrate the company’s commitment to advancing medical technology and improving patient outcomes. Additionally, the acquisition of companies like Axonics, Inc. and Cortex, Inc. highlights Boston Scientific’s strategy to expand its product portfolio and enhance its market presence.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Since the coverage of Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) in November for Q3 earnings, PLTR shares doubled in price, from $50.92 to present $103.33 per share. This new price level, surging from the low 80s, happened on Monday, just after the Q4 2024 earnings delivery.

Seemingly, the PLTR stock is now in overvalued territory at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 172.41, with an average price target of $69.50 according to TipRanks. But is there reason to believe Palantir is more likely to head to the highest price target of $125 and beyond?

First, let’s examine Palantir’s earnings progress.

Another Quarter for Palantir that Beats Expectations

Having beaten analyst expectations in Q3, Palantir did the same for Q4. This time the earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11 was surpassed by $0.14. Likewise, the company’s revenue of $828 million exceeded the LSEG forecast of $776 million.

Year-over-year, Palantir’s revenue generation increased by 36% in Q4, an improvement from 30% in Q3. Indicatively, the commercial division showed greater revenue acceleration, by 64% yoy to $214 million. However, Palantis government contracts still make the bulk of sales at $343 million, which is a 45% yoy uptick.

Overall, Palantir reported $2.87 billion in revenue for full year 2024, of which net income increased 16% from 2023 to $462.2 million. More importantly from a valuation aspect, Palantir forecasted better than expected sales for 2025, setting in the $3.74 – $3.76 billion range, above the average forecast of $3.52 billion.

In the quarter’s shareholder letter, Palantir CEO Alex Karp likened the company to a “software juggernaut”, noting that:

“We have the products and reach of an established incumbent and the speed, growth, and agility of an insurgent startup.”

But how exactly is Palantir’s enterprise software different from offerings of dozens of other publicly traded companies with drastically lower P/E ratios?

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Palantir: Hegemony Technology

Just as Twitter Files showed coordinated collusion between the government and Big Tech to curtail the 1st amendment, the recent DOGE-powered USAID revelations showed that much of social structure is a top-down social engineering project. This not only extends to global politics but to culture and media as well.

For Tokenist readers who absorbed the coverage of DeepSeek, this is no surprise. It is embedded in any governance system to expand and maintain control. When AI emerged as viable, there was an immediate rush to tighten the bonds between the government and Big Tech in order to ensure “AI safety”, which is largely related to unified and automated narrative control.

With President Trump resuming his 2nd term, in alliance with Elon Musk, there is now more emphasis on a robust technology for governance systems. And Palantir is at the center of it. Together with Palantir CEO Alex Karp and Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey (self-described “radical Zionist”), Elon Musk’s DOGE efforts appear to be the backbone of the new realignment of networked power.

Palantir is essential in this endeavor as an AI-powered platform that not only makes Big Data relevant, but makes it possible to organize data to deliver efficient decision making. In the August coverage of Palantir, when PLTR stock was only $26.95, we described this process pipeline as follows:

“Palantir’s clients receive greater understanding of how their own organizations work, instead of just relying on vague notions of how they work.”

At present, it seems that the Trump admin views much of the federal apparatus as a liability that serves its own ends. It is then easy to see how Palantir’s tech will be deployed to ascertain the relevance of current governance systems. 

“On the government side, Palantir’s vision is very well aligned with the current administration,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria.

In turn, it is as easy to see how Palantir may become even more relevant than Microsoft. It is also notable that Palantir’s Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor recently discouraged commercial clients from using Chinese AI models like DeepSeek, while noting that government contractors will likely be prohibited from using them.

In other words, investors should view Palantir as a likely monopolist in the emerging automated governance arena. This would not only make PLTR an AI stock, but one with an edge.

Will you wait for PLTR exposure after another stock market correction, or will you just stick to semiconductor stocks like Nvidia or AMD? Let us know in the comments below.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) is gearing up to announce its earnings for the final quarter of 2024, with the report scheduled for release before the market opens on February 5, 2025. Market analysts are optimistic about the company’s financial performance, projecting a significant increase in revenue compared to the same period last year. Expectations are set for a year-on-year revenue growth of 18.3%, which would bring the total to approximately $11.76 billion. Additionally, adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to reach $0.60. The company has consistently demonstrated strong financial performance, having surpassed revenue forecasts in the previous quarter with a 20.4% increase, totaling $11.19 billion. This growth is accompanied by a notable rise in user numbers, which climbed by 13.4% to reach 161 million.

Uber Stock Gains as Firm Set to Report Q4 Earnings

Uber’s stock has shown positive momentum in recent weeks, with a 2.3% increase in share price over the last month. The stock has fluctuated between a 52-week low of $54.84 and a high of $87.00, indicating a volatile yet promising trajectory. Analysts have set an average price target of $88.63, significantly higher than the current price, suggesting potential for further growth. The stock’s market capitalization stands at $146.37 billion, with a price-to-book ratio of 9.90, highlighting investor optimism in the company’s future prospects.

The financial metrics for Uber suggest a robust position in the market, with a beta of 1.337 indicating a higher level of volatility compared to the broader market. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 34.24, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio is 21.93, suggesting that investors expect continued earnings growth.The company’s debt-to-equity ratio of 80.343 reflects a balanced approach to leveraging for growth. Analysts have set a high target price of $120.00 and a low target price of $71.96, with a median target price of $90.00. The recommendation key for Uber remains a “Buy,” with a recommendation mean of 1.53, underscoring the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.

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Uber Stays a Solid Pick for Analysts

Uber has maintained a “high” ranking for earnings quality for 38 consecutive weeks, a testament to its consistent financial health and operational efficiency. Despite missing Wall Street’s revenue estimates twice in the past two years, the company has demonstrated an ability to recover and exceed expectations in subsequent quarters. The trailing earnings per share is $2.03, with a forward earnings per share of $2.36, indicating a strong potential for future profitability. The company’s quick ratio of 1.223 and current ratio of 1.415 further illustrate its capacity to meet short-term obligations, reinforcing investor confidence.

As Uber prepares to release its fourth-quarter earnings, the focus remains on its ability to sustain growth and meet market expectations. With a total revenue of $41.96 billion, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the transportation and logistics sectors.

The upcoming earnings report will be a critical indicator of Uber’s trajectory and its ability to navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead. Investors and analysts alike will be closely monitoring the results, eager to assess the company’s performance and future potential.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) has reported fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed expectations, with earnings per share reaching $1.19, above the anticipated $1.12, and revenue hitting $8.37 billion, exceeding the projected $8.26 billion. Despite this strong financial showing, the company’s shares experienced a notable decline of over 9%. This drop is attributed to concerns over slowing growth in card processing, which investors appear to be focused on. Chief Executive Officer Alex Chriss remains optimistic about the future, emphasizing the importance of strategic initiatives and investments in technology to drive long-term growth.

Despite Earnings Beat, PayPal Faces Challenges Ahead

Venmo, a key asset for PayPal, saw its total payment volume rise by 10% compared to the previous year, highlighting its role as a growth driver. CEO Alex Chriss pointed to strategic initiatives such as Fastlane and PayPal Everywhere, which aim to enhance user experience and expand the company’s market presence. Additionally, investments in artificial intelligence and automation are expected to play a crucial role in the company’s future development. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to maintain competitive advantage and foster sustainable growth.

Despite the positive indicators, PayPal faces challenges, particularly in unbranded payment volume, which decreased to 2% from 29% a year earlier. The company anticipates that renegotiations with existing customers will impact revenue growth by approximately five points in 2025. To counterbalance these challenges and bolster shareholder value, PayPal has announced a $15 billion share repurchase program, with plans to execute $6 billion in buybacks by 2025. This move is designed to return value to shareholders and demonstrate confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.

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PayPal Stock Hit After Earnings

PayPal’s stock has experienced a decline recently, yet it has risen 43% over the past year. The company is currently valued at a market capitalization of $81.68 billion. At the time of writing, the stock is trading at $81.15, down over 9% through the trading session so far. The stock reached a day low of $80.2 and a day high of $82.69, while its 52-week range spans from $55.77 to $93.66. Analysts maintain a “Buy” recommendation, with a target mean price of $96.24829, indicating potential for future appreciation.

As PayPal navigates a competitive landscape, it remains focused on profitable growth and leveraging acquisitions like Braintree and Venmo. The company’s efforts to enhance its offerings and invest in technology are aimed at maintaining its market position amidst increasing competition.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenues reaching $17.8 billion, representing a 21% operational increase compared to the same period in the previous year. This growth was significantly driven by the company’s biopharmaceuticals business, which saw a 22% operational increase in revenues. Excluding contributions from Paxlovid and Comirnaty, the company’s revenues still grew by 11% operationally, indicating robust performance across its diverse product portfolio. The adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $0.63, reflecting the company’s ability to navigate the evolving market landscape and deliver value to shareholders.Pfizer’s CEO, Dr. Albert Bourla, highlighted the company’s strategic execution and financial commitments, emphasizing the growth achieved across various product lines. Notable contributors to this growth included the legacy Seagen portfolio, the Vyndaqel family, and other key products like Eliquis and Xtandi. These products have shown significant demand, particularly in the U.S. market, where Pfizer has been able to capitalize on increased patient diagnosis and market share gains.The company also made strides in cost management, achieving $4 billion in net cost savings through its ongoing cost realignment program. This initiative is part of Pfizer’s broader strategy to optimize operations and enhance profitability. The success of this program has allowed Pfizer to increase its overall savings target to approximately $4.5 billion by the end of 2025, demonstrating the company’s commitment to maintaining financial discipline and operational efficiency.

Pfizer Reports Better than Expected Fourth-Quarter Results

When comparing Pfizer’s fourth-quarter performance to market expectations, the results reveal a mixed picture. The adjusted EPS of $0.63 fell short of the expected EPS of $1.81, indicating a variance in the anticipated profitability for the quarter. This discrepancy can be attributed to several factors, including the one-time non-cash Paxlovid revenue reversal recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, which impacted the year-over-year comparison. Additionally, the reported diluted EPS of $0.07 was significantly lower than the adjusted figure, reflecting the company’s adjustments for various non-recurring items.

On the revenue front, Pfizer exceeded expectations, with fourth-quarter revenues totaling $17.8 billion compared to the anticipated $15.47 billion. This outperformance was driven by strong sales across several product categories, particularly in the biopharmaceuticals business. The growth in revenues was further supported by favorable foreign exchange impacts, which contributed to the overall positive performance.

Despite the challenges posed by the evolving COVID-19 landscape, Pfizer’s diverse product portfolio and strategic initiatives have enabled the company to navigate these uncertainties and deliver solid financial results. The company’s ability to outperform revenue expectations underscores its resilience and adaptability in a dynamic market environment, positioning it well for future growth.

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Pfizer Reaffirms Guidance for Full Year 2025

Pfizer has reaffirmed its financial guidance for 2025, projecting revenues in the range of $61.0 to $64.0 billion. The company also anticipates adjusted diluted EPS to be between $2.80 and $3.00, reflecting its confidence in sustaining growth and delivering shareholder value. This guidance is based on several assumptions, including the successful execution of its cost realignment program and the realization of anticipated savings.

Pfizer’s Chief Financial Officer, David Denton, expressed confidence in the company’s ability to achieve these targets, highlighting the progress made in optimizing its manufacturing processes and reducing costs. The Manufacturing Optimization Program is expected to deliver $1.5 billion in net cost savings by the end of 2027, with initial savings anticipated in the latter part of 2025. These initiatives are part of Pfizer’s broader strategy to enhance operational efficiency and return to pre-pandemic operating margins.

The company also plans to continue investing in research and development, with a focus on advancing its pipeline and bringing innovative therapies to market. This commitment to innovation is underscored by Pfizer’s strategic priorities for 2025, which aim to enhance shareholder value and drive long-term growth.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) reported a robust performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, with worldwide sales reaching $15.6 billion, marking a 7% increase from the same period in 2023. This growth was even more pronounced when excluding the impact of foreign exchange, showing a 9% increase. Key drivers for this growth included the impressive performance of its oncology portfolio, particularly KEYTRUDA, which saw a 19% increase in sales to $7.8 billion. This was driven by strong global demand across various cancer indications, including bladder and endometrial cancers, as well as non-small cell lung cancer. The company’s non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $1.72, while GAAP EPS was slightly lower at $1.48. These figures included a $0.23 per share charge related to business development transactions. Despite the charge, the non-GAAP EPS showed significant improvement compared to the previous year’s fourth quarter, reflecting Merck’s operational strength and strategic business decisions. Merck’s animal health division also contributed positively to the quarterly results, with sales increasing by 9% to $1.4 billion. This growth was primarily driven by higher pricing and demand for livestock products, as well as the acquisition of the Elanco aqua business. The company’s new product, WINREVAIR, launched in the second quarter, continued to see strong uptake, contributing $200 million in sales for the quarter.

Merck & Co., Inc. Reports Mixed Results for Fourth Quarter 2024

When compared against market expectations, Merck’s fourth-quarter results were a mixed bag. The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $1.72, which fell short of the anticipated $1.81. However, it exceeded revenue expectations, with actual sales of $15.6 billion compared to the forecasted $15.47 billion. The earnings miss can largely be attributed to the $0.23 per share charge related to business development transactions, which impacted the bottom line.

Despite the earnings shortfall, Merck’s revenue performance was commendable, driven by its oncology and animal health segments. KEYTRUDA, in particular, outperformed expectations, with sales climbing 19% year-over-year, underscoring the strength of its oncology portfolio. However, the decline in sales for GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9, primarily due to reduced demand in China, was a notable downside, impacting overall vaccine sales.

The company’s operational efficiency was evident in its improved gross margins, both on GAAP and non-GAAP bases, compared to the previous year. This was achieved through a favorable product mix and lower royalty rates for KEYTRUDA and GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9, partially offset by higher amortization of intangible assets. The strategic focus on high-demand areas and effective cost management helped Merck navigate the challenges posed by foreign exchange fluctuations and competitive pressures.

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Merck Expects Worldwide Sales in $64.1 billion to $65.6 billion Range for Full Year 2025

Merck provided a positive financial outlook for the full year 2025. The company anticipates worldwide sales to be in the range of $64.1 billion to $65.6 billion. This guidance reflects a cautious approach, taking into account a temporary pause in shipments of GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9 to China from February 2025 through mid-year.

Despite this, the company remains optimistic about its growth prospects, driven by continued demand for its oncology and animal health products.Merck expects its non-GAAP EPS for 2025 to range between $8.88 and $9.03, which includes a $0.09 per share charge related to a milestone payment to LaNova. The company has factored in a negative impact of approximately $0.35 per share due to foreign exchange rates. The guidance suggests confidence in overcoming the challenges posed by currency fluctuations and competitive dynamics in key markets.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Spotify (NYSE: SPOT) reported its fourth-quarter earnings for 2024, showcasing a strong finish to the year with significant growth across essential metrics. The company celebrated its first full year of profitability, marking a milestone in its financial journey. Monthly active users reached 675 million, reflecting a 12% increase year-over-year. This growth in user base was accompanied by an 11% rise in subscribers, totaling 263 million.

Spotify Reports 16% y/y Growth in Total Revenue for Q4

Total revenue for the quarter climbed 16% year-over-year, reaching €4.2 billion. This robust revenue growth was supported by an improvement in the company’s gross margin, which increased by 555 basis points to 32.2%. Operating income also saw a notable rise, reaching €477 million.

CEO Daniel Ek expressed optimism about the future, emphasizing the company’s commitment to enhancing user experience and maintaining operational efficiency. By focusing on long-term impact and sustainable growth, Spotify is poised to continue its upward trajectory in the coming years. These strategic priorities are expected to further solidify its position as a leading player in the music streaming industry.

With monthly active users and subscribers both showing double-digit year-over-year increases, Spotify demonstrated its capacity to scale effectively.

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Spotify Confident in Company’s Future Prospects

Spotify’s management has expressed confidence in the company’s future prospects. CEO Daniel Ek highlighted the importance of strategic investments that drive long-term impact and enhance user experience. By increasing operational speed while maintaining efficiency, Spotify aims to sustain its growth momentum and deliver innovative solutions to its audience.

The company is focused on building the most valuable user experience, which involves continuous improvements to its platform and services. This commitment to enhancing user satisfaction is expected to contribute to further growth in both active users and subscribers. As Spotify continues to expand its offerings, it is likely to attract a broader audience and deepen its market penetration.

While specific financial guidance for the upcoming quarters was not detailed in the documents, the company’s strategic priorities suggest a focus on sustainable growth and profitability. By leveraging its strengths and addressing potential challenges, Spotify is well-positioned to achieve its long-term objectives.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

In a significant move reflecting the escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States, the Liquor Control Board of Ontario has announced it will remove American alcohol products from its shelves starting Tuesday. This decision follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, prompting a retaliatory response from Canada. Premier Doug Ford has directed this action as part of broader measures to counteract the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. The move is seen as a strong statement of opposition to the trade policies that have strained international relations and impacted businesses on both sides of the border.

Trade Dispute’s Impact on Constellation Brands

The recent trade tensions have also affected the financial markets, particularly impacting companies with significant cross-border dealings. Piper Sandler has downgraded the American producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) from “Overweight” to “Neutral,” citing the uncertainty surrounding new U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports. The company owns over 100 brands and is the largest beer import company in the country when measured by sales.The brokerage firm has also adjusted its price target and fiscal earnings projections for Constellation Brands, highlighting potential challenges to the company’s margins and sales. The downgrade reflects the broader market concerns about the implications of ongoing trade disputes on corporate earnings and growth prospects.

Constellation Brands Inc. has experienced notable fluctuations in its stock price, influenced by the current economic climate and market sentiment. The stock is currently priced at $175.81, a decrease from its previous close of $180.80. The day’s trading saw a low of $166.02 and a high of $178.02, marking a significant variance within a single trading session. The company’s stock has seen a downward trend from January highs of $221.92, indicating investor caution amid the uncertainties. Despite this, market analysts have issued a “Buy” recommendation, with a target mean price of $243.80, suggesting potential for recovery.

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STZ Stock Overview

Constellation Brands’ financial metrics provide insight into its current valuation and market positioning. The company boasts a market capitalization of approximately $31.8 billion, with a dividend yield of 1.84% and a trailing P/E ratio of 47.01. Its forward P/E ratio is notably lower at 12.11, suggesting expectations of improved earnings performance in the future. However, the company’s high debt-to-equity ratio of 149.16% raises concerns about its leverage and financial stability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a strong revenue base, with total revenue exceeding $10 billion.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

In October 2015, before Trump’s 1st term, the now-exiting Canadian PM Justin Trudeau told NYT that Canada is the “first post-national state”. Moreover, Trudeau remarked that “there is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada”, suggesting there is no such thing as Canada, or Canadian, in the first place.

At the beginning of President Trump’s 2nd term, this notion is heading for a big test. Jokingly or not, Trump already hinted that Canada could become “cherished 51st state”, as he announced 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% from China. In return, Trudeau warned of retaliatory measures on Saturday, calling for national unity.

Given that trading relations between the US and Canada, alongside Mexico, are completely lopsided in US’ favor, such measures are exceedingly likely to be short-lived. 

Image credit: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

China is in another category, however, having only 15% of its total exports to the US as of 2023. Moreover, the US Chamber of Commerce projected that the US would have to invest over $1.5 trillion, over the next decade, to decouple from China in semiconductor, aviation and healthcare sectors. 

In the meantime, China has been transitioning from cheap goods manufacturing to high-tech growth. Simultaneously, China still holds $768.6 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, as the 2nd largest foreign debt-holder behind Japan.

In other words, President Trump’s focus on tariffs, as a way to revitalize domestic industry and bring in revenue, is likely to cause disruptions. The question is, what kind of disruptions can investors expect and how to prepare for them accordingly?

Stock Market Response to Potential Trade Wars

Despite having only 4.2% of the world’s population, the US holds unparalleled stock market weight. At $62.2 trillion as of January 1st, the total market cap of publicly traded companies in the US comprises 73.94% weight of the global equity market.

The MSCI World Index itself covers 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. Image credit: MSCI World Index

In other words, the US dominance and leverage is unmatched, despite retaliatory threats against announced tariffs. It is also notable that the Eurozone is firmly within the US sphere, as demonstrated by the total lack of European response following the Nord Stream pipeline bombing. 

This is why the market’s reaction on potential Trade Wars 2.0 has largely been muted. Over the last week up until Monday, Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 (SXXP) index is up 0.15%, while Germany’s DAX went down 0.13%. Hong Kong’s HSI flatlined at 0.13% while Japan’s NIKKEI was the outlier but only at a 1.45% drop.

Except for Japan, stock exchanges indices across the world reverted to Tuesday’s price level. Image credit: TradingView

This mild market reaction is in line with Trade Wars 1.0 during Trump’s 1st term. In terms of tariffs affecting companies with international earnings vs domestic earnings, there was no discernable difference last time, according to Charles Schwab data. 

This time around, with greatly weakened Europe and UK (following the Ukraine war pushed by the US State Department) and Canada, the US is even more likely to power through any retaliatory measures. As a fan of stocks going up, President Trump seems to be aware of this.

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Retaliation Impact on US Industries

On Tuesday, Trudeau’s CAD$30 billion worth of tariffs against US imports should take effect, equal to Trump’s announced 25%. In total, the Canadian PM retaliated with around CAD$155 billion worth of tariffs on US goods. 

Oddly enough, despite the US enacting tariffs as a whole nation (of the United States), Canada is targeting so-called “red states”. Already, such an unorthodox maneuver elicited additional response from some governors of those red states.

Of those Republican red states, North (ND) and South Dakota (SD), as well as Ohio (OH), appear to be the most susceptible to Canadian tariff backlash.

Image credit: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

As a whole, however, the most affected US markets would be fuel exporters and automakers. Namely, Canada accounts for $22 billion worth of crude and refined petroleum exports from the US. Mexico takes in $36 billion worth of refined petroleum and $8 billion in petroleum gas. 

Canada makes up $16 billion in imported US cars. China has a much larger import weight in the auto sector, at $37 billion as well as $41 billion weight in vaccines and other medical supply imports.

Overall, based on Trade Wars 1.0 impact, investors should rely on utility stocks and real estate sector to guard their portfolios against push-and-pull trade wars. Likewise, except for China and Russia, the world’s global IT sector is effectively under US control.

Despite China’s DeepSeek advancement, ASML CEO considers such optimizations as bullish for the long term growth of the semiconductor sector.

The Bottom Line

The renewed tariff wars should not be a major concern for investors. Canada, the EU and the UK are all in much worse economic conditions since Trump’s first term in office. Mexico is even in a worse negotiating state as the US can impose tax on $63.3 billion worth of remittances (in 2023), which accounted for 7.5% of global remittances.

Having increased 50% from 2019, Mexico’s reliance on remittances rose to 4.2% of its GDP in 2023. Of course, the US accounts for 96% of Mexico’s remittance flows. Moreover, with the removal of regulatory burdens against gas & oil, the lowered energy prices should offset any increases in the cost of living.

This is why the newly appointed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a Wall Street insider, doesn’t believe any inflation increase is on the table. During Trump’s 1st term, tariff measures also failed to cause inflation rate jumps. 

Coupled with major spending cuts, which were not on the table during Trump’s previous admin, the US has greater stamina than ever to impose tariffs without much negative or long-lasting impact.

Do you think President Trump is right to ramp up protectionism? Let us know in the comments below.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

The recent announcement of a new tariff policy framework by President Donald Trump has sent ripples through the global automotive industry, affecting stock prices and strategic planning for major automakers. The policy, set to take effect on February 4, 2025, introduces tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, with potential targets in the European Union. This move, justified by concerns over illegal immigration and drug issues, has sparked significant market reactions and strategic adjustments, particularly for U.S. automakers like Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), as well as international manufacturers.

Auto Stocks Decline, Ford Sees Hope with Strong Domestic Production Already in Place

The introduction of these tariffs has led to a notable decline in stock prices for major automakers. In the pre-market trading session, U.S. giants such as GM and Ford experienced declines of 8% and 5% in premarket trading today, respectively. European manufacturers were not spared, with companies like Valeo, Stellantis, and Volkswagen seeing decreases ranging from 6.6% to 9%. Asian automakers, including Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mazda, and Kia, also faced declines exceeding 5%.

In response to these challenges, Ford is implementing strategic measures to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. With the largest manufacturing footprint and the highest number of unionized workers in the U.S., Ford is committed to maintaining domestic production, particularly for its F-150 line.

The company has outlined contingency plans with an expected adjustment period of two to three months. Ford’s future planning emphasizes growth in U.S. employment, despite external pressures. Additionally, Ford is focusing on its electric vehicle (EV) strategy, aiming to introduce a more affordable lineup by 2027, amidst potential policy threats to EV sales targets and tax credits.

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US Tariffs Expected to Have Far-Reaching Implications for Global Auto Industry

Ford’s stock has experienced fluctuations in recent trading sessions, reflecting broader market concerns. Opening at $9.72 (from a previous close of $10.08, the stock reached a high of $10.03 before settling at $9.9904. The company’s market cap stands at approximately $39.7 billion, with a dividend yield of 5.95%. Despite the current challenges, analysts maintain a “hold” recommendation for Ford, with a target mean price of $11.68. The stock’s price-to-book ratio of 0.896 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 359.36 highlight the financial metrics investors are considering amidst the unfolding tariff situation.

The tariff policy is expected to have far-reaching implications for the global automotive industry. Supply chain disruptions are anticipated, particularly affecting North American manufacturers and parts suppliers like Valeo. Economic projections suggest a decline in EU exports, with companies like BMW forecasting potential price increases. The situation may escalate into a trade war, with Canada and Mexico threatening retaliation and the EU preparing proportional measures.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Auto Stocks Decline on Tariff News; Ford Sees Hope in Domestic Production appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) has reported a robust start to fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant improvements in both revenue and profitability. For the first quarter, the company achieved sales of $13.623 billion, marking a 2.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Tyson Foods’ diversified portfolio, including brands like Jimmy Dean and Hillshire Farm, has played a pivotal role in this upward trajectory.

Tyson Foods Exceeds Q1 Expectations with $1.14 EPS

Operating income for the quarter reached $580 million, a remarkable 151% increase from the previous year’s figure of $231 million. This surge in operating income highlights Tyson’s enhanced operational efficiency and strategic execution across its various segments. The chicken segment, in particular, demonstrated exceptional performance, contributing significantly to the overall profitability with an operating income of $351 million, nearly doubling from the previous year.

In terms of earnings, Tyson Foods reported a GAAP net income per share of $1.01, representing a substantial 237% increase from the prior year. On an adjusted basis, the earnings per share stood at $1.14, surpassing the previous year’s adjusted EPS of $0.69. This impressive growth in earnings per share underscores Tyson’s successful cost management and revenue generation strategies, paving the way for a strong fiscal year ahead.

The first quarter performance of Tyson Foods exceeded market expectations, setting a positive tone for the fiscal year. Analysts had projected an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89 and revenue of $13.5 billion for the quarter. Tyson Foods not only surpassed these expectations but also delivered a GAAP EPS of $1.01 and an adjusted EPS of $1.14.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $13.623 billion, slightly above the anticipated $13.5 billion. This achievement reflects Tyson’s ability to leverage its multi-channel, multi-protein portfolio to capture market demand. The beef and chicken segments were key drivers of this revenue growth, with beef sales increasing by 5.6% and chicken sales by 1.5% compared to the previous year. Despite challenges in the prepared foods segment, Tyson’s overall sales performance remained strong.

The company’s adjusted operating income of $659 million, up from $411 million in the prior year, further highlights its ability to exceed market expectations. This 60% increase in adjusted operating income demonstrates Tyson’s effective execution of its business strategies, particularly in its chicken and pork segments, which showed notable improvements in operating margins.

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Tyson Foods Raises Guidance for Fiscal Year 2025

Tyson Foods has raised its guidance for fiscal year 2025, reflecting confidence in its ongoing strategic initiatives and market position. The company anticipates total adjusted operating income to range between $1.9 billion and $2.3 billion. This optimistic outlook is supported by expected growth in the chicken and pork segments, with chicken production projected to increase by approximately 2% according to USDA forecasts.

In terms of revenue, Tyson expects sales to be flat to slightly up by 1% compared to fiscal 2024. This cautious yet positive revenue outlook takes into account the anticipated challenges in the beef segment, where domestic production is projected to decrease by 1%. Nevertheless, Tyson remains confident in its ability to navigate these challenges and capitalize on opportunities in its other segments.

The company also plans capital expenditures between $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion, focusing on profit improvement projects and maintenance. With a liquidity position of $4.5 billion as of the end of December 2024, Tyson is well-equipped to support its strategic investments and operational needs.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Tyson Foods Beats Expectations with $1.14 EPS, Operating Income Up 151% appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

As expected, President Trump’s friendliness to the oil and gas industry carried over to his 2nd term. Following the avalanche of executive orders (EOs) on January 20th, multiple ones were aimed at federal agencies to remove regulatory burdens against the energy sector. 

Just by declaring a National Energy Emergency, President Trump set the stage for accelerated completion of energy and infrastructure projects. This includes fuel waivers, expediting the utilization of Alaska’s ample resources, and canceling many Biden era policies that overturned Trump’s own policies in his 1st term.

In short, by significantly increasing domestic energy supply across the board, President Trump aims to lower the cost of living to “increase the prosperity of the American worker”. Of course, the fastest way to accomplish that is to lower energy costs that go into every product and service in existence.

The question is, which energy giants will benefit most during Trump’s term, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) or Chevron (NYSE: CVX)? Let’s examine their latest earnings to see where they are positioned.

Trump’s International Moves to Lower Oil Prices

Removing the regulatory costs of oil & gas operations is just one layer for boosting energy production. President Trump is counting on tariffs as the main tool to bring down the oil price. This includes newly announced 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, although it is still uncertain if they will cover crude oil.

“It depends on what the price is. If the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly — which they don’t.”

President Donald Trump at Thursday’s White House press conference

Speaking of which, Brent crude oil price, now at $75.61 per barrel, has remained stable, down only 0.88% year-to-date, having dropped 6.55% over one year. In addition to tariffs, President Trump expects Saudi Arabia to push OPEC+ to lower oil prices by boosting production. 

OPEC+ representatives should decide this course on February 3rd at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. Even without Trump’s prompting, OPEC+ nations are expected to unwind previous production cuts starting from April. 

With lowered oil prices on the horizon, it is then a matter of ExxonMobil and Chevron managing their cost-efficiency, expansion plans, and debt loads.

ExxonMobil Beats Chevron in Earnings Expectations

On Friday, ExxonMobil reported its Q4 2024 earnings, showing $7.38 billion adjusted profit. Although lower than Q3’s $8.6 billion, it beat the LSEG analyst consensus of $1.56 at $1.67 earnings per share (EPS).

For the full year, as the largest domestic oil producer, ExxonMobil generated $33.46 billion earnings, significantly down from 2023’s $38.57 billion, suggesting the economy slowed down under the Biden admin.

To service ongoing operations and future growth, ExxonMobil generated $34.4 billion free cash flow for the entire year. This is down from $37.53 billion in 2023. 

Chevron dropped its earnings on the same day, showing $3.24 billion for Q4. Mirroring slower demand in line with ExxonMobil, this is also down from Q3’s $4.48 billion. However, Chevron failed to exceed the LSEG consensus of $2.11 at $2.06 adjusted earnings per share (EPS).

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Chevron Is More Debt-Loaded than ExxonMobil

As the second largest domestic oil producer, for the full year 2024, Chevron generated $17.66 billion earnings, down from $21.36 billion in 2023. Chevron’s free cash flow is also down, from $19.8 billion in 2023 to $15 billion in 2024. 

However, compared to ExxonMobil’s 8.3% annual free cash flow decrease, Chevron performed better at a 7.3% drop. Nonetheless, when it comes to debt levels, ExxonMobil has a net debt-to-capital ratio of 6%, while Chevron’s is much higher at 10.4%.

In raw numbers, ExxonMobil has total debt of $41.7 billion, minus $23 billion worth of cash and cash equivalents. Chevron has more debt than ExxonMobil’s cash, at total debt of $24.54 billion, minus $6.78 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

Expectations Moving Forward

ExxonMobil benefited greatly from the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources last May, having become the largest Permian Basin oil producer. A reminder, the Permian Basin accounted for 43,6% of US oil production, and 15% of gas production, in 2022.

Before ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer Natural Resources, it was the top oil producer in the Permian Basin in Q2 2023. Image credit: Reuters, source: Enverus

In total, ExxonMobil elevated its oil-equivalent production from 3.73 million bpd in 2023 to 4.33 million bpd in 2024. While ExxonMobil delivered its highest level net production in 2024 for the last 10 years, Chevron’s US production figure managed to reach a new quarterly record at 48k barrels per day increase from the year-ago quarter. 

This was offset by a quarterly 90k bpd decrease due to withdrawal from Myanmar, selling $6.5 billion worth of assets in Canada, and downtime in the Tengizchevroil (TCO) expansion (western Kazakhstan), of which Chevron holds 50% interest across two oilfields.

Provided Brent crude oil price remains above $70 per barrel, Chevron expects its global output to increase between 6% and 8% during 2025, and down to 3% to 6% in 2026. 

ExxonMobil aims for the doubling of its Permian production by 2030 to 5.4 million bpd By 2027, ExxonMobil’s production is projected at 5.1 million bpd. The company’s expansion into Guyana, now running five years, will be the key part for that level, aiming for 1.3 million bpd by 2030.

Alaska is Made for ExxonMobil

When it comes to both established output and expansion plans, ExxonMobil is in a better position. While Chevron made some Permian gains, and cut losses from Canada and Myanmar, the company expects much from its $48 billion Kazakhstan expansion, of up to 1 million bpd. This would account for nearly 1% of the global oil supply.

In short, both companies are expected to defy the “peak oil” narrative from decades past. Now that President Trump is removing expansion hurdles into Alaska, it is likely this will benefit ExxonMobil due to the company’s deeper pockets.

Moreover, ExxonMobil has a near-century-long presence in Alaska, being one of the top three oil producers there. Not only that, but the company is the primary holder of discovered natural gas in Alaska. In contrast, Chevron recently closed asset sales in Alaska, in addition to Canada and the Republic of Congo. 

The Bottom Line: Dividend Choice among Aristocrat Stocks

Over the last year, the stocks of both companies have yielded little from equity exposure alone. While XOM shares yielded 5.77% returns, CVX  shares yielded 1.87% value to shareholders. Rather, their attraction is in dividend yields. Both companies offer relatively high dividend payouts.

Chevron set its dividend yield at 4.17%, at an annual payout of $6.52 per share. ExxonMobil set its dividend yield at 3.61% at an annual payout of $3.96 per share. Yet, for this type of long exposure, ExxonMobil is a better choice, having raised its Q4 dividend by 4%, on top of having increased its annual dividend for the last 42 consecutive years.

Chevron is also an aristocrat dividend stock, having raised its annual dividend for 37 consecutive years. In the latest quarter, Chevron raised its dividend slightly more than ExxonMobil, by 5%. Yet, would Chevron be able to keep up with ExxonMobil’s Alaska-born yields in the future? Not likely.

Although President Trump launched the lockdowns under the pandemic narrative umbrella, which ushered in the Fed’s unprecedented monetary intervention and inflation, do you think he will succeed in lowering the cost of living? Let us know in the comments below.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Exxon vs. Chevron: Which is the Better Dividend Aristocrat? appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is experiencing significant fluctuations amidst growing geopolitical tensions and market developments. The recent imposition of tariffs by President Donald Trump has sent ripples through the crypto market, causing Bitcoin’s value to fall below $100,000 and trading around the $96,000 level at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the ‘Kimchi Premium’ in South Korea has surged, raising short-term concerns for Bitcoin. On the policy front, India is reconsidering its stance on cryptocurrencies as global perspectives shift. Additionally, the stablecoin market has surpassed a $200 billion market cap, signaling potential upward movement in crypto prices.

Bitcoin Price Dips Below $96k in Wake of Agressive US Trade Policies

Bitcoin’s price has dipped to approximately $95,816, marking a decline of 1.85% from its previous close at the time of writing. This downturn comes in the wake of Trump’s aggressive trade policies, which have spooked investors and led to widespread sell-offs in the crypto market. The currency’s day low was recorded at $92,584, while its high stood at $97,618. The increased volatility is reflected in Bitcoin’s trading volume, which surged to $101 billion, highlighting the heightened trading activity as investors react to the unfolding global trade tensions.

In South Korea, the ‘Kimchi Premium’—the price difference between Bitcoin on South Korean exchanges and other global exchanges—has jumped to 10%. This premium often indicates increased demand or speculative trading within the country, and its rise has raised alarms about potential price corrections for Bitcoin in the near term. Analysts suggest that this premium could lead to increased volatility as traders attempt to capitalize on the price discrepancies.

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Bitcoin News and Developments Around the World

On the policy front, India is reportedly reassessing its crypto regulations, possibly influenced by the changing regulatory environment in other countries. With the global outlook on digital assets becoming more favorable, India might shift towards a more open stance on cryptocurrency usage and investment.

The stablecoin sector is experiencing a surge, with the market cap surpassing $200 billion. This growth is seen as a potential catalyst for future price increases in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As stablecoins provide a bridge between traditional finance and digital assets, their rising dominance could pave the way for broader adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial systems.

Bitcoin’s market dominance is also on the rise, nearing a four-year high, as altcoins continue to struggle. This increase in dominance suggests a consolidation of investor interest around Bitcoin, often viewed as a safer bet during periods of uncertainty. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, market participants remain vigilant, closely watching these developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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