Timechain Coder

👋Hey!
Unlike my social media posts, in addition to majors, here I'm planning to analyze your #altcoins with medium and low market caps too! I'll provide mid-to-long term price targets for the bull season. 🔥
If you are interested, don't forget to follow and share the #altcoins that interest you in the comments! 👊

👀To easily track your #altcoins I will list the analyzed ones collectively under this INDEX and list them in alphabetical order so they can be easily found.
🤟You'll also see what is next. Depending on how many follower requests I may update the list of next ones from time to time.
💪Therefore, the INDEX will be constantly updated throughout this series.

🤟NEXT IN LINE:

1) ALT - AltLayer (2024-12-13)
2) TON - Toncoin (2024-12-13)
3) ACE - Fusionist (2024-12-14)
4) ENA - Ethena (2024-12-14)
5) RENDER - Render (2024-12-22)
6) YFI - yearn.finance
7) GRT - The Graph
8) IQ - IQ

⭐COIN/TOKEN LIST (alphabetical order):
👉A
$ACE - Fusionist - click here
$ALT - AltLayer - click here

👉E
$ENA - Ethena - click here

👉R
$RENDER - Render - click here

👉T
$TON - Toncoin - click here

💥CautionsNevertheless, remember that during the hottest times of the bull season, very great levels can be reached with #FOMO, but these levels cannot be maintained for long and very sharp corrections are experienced (try to understand by looking at old bull peaks). Manage your risk with these in mind and wait for healthy corrections without increasing your purchases in expensive areas.My posts are only technical and fundamental comments of me and express my conclusions based on my own experience.Since there is no time/time series analysis in target price studies, there is no answer to the questions "When?" or "What will the price be on this date?"Sharing/analyzing a coin/token does not mean that I like or dislike it, think it will be successful or unsuccessful, support it or not, invest/trade or stay away from it. I analyze it in line with requests and share my individual opinions.None of my posts or comments are within the scope of investment/financial consultancy and should definitely not be understood in this sense.You should manage your risk by considering your own financial situation for your investments and trades, do your own research and then take action (DYOR). If necessary, you can even request professional support from authorized persons and institutions to provide consultancy.

I've been wanting to share more #crypto-focused content on this platform for a long time, and today I finally got the chance to start. 😎

👉 What are we going to do? 👀
We will analyze the general situation of the crypto market up-to-date and draw our general directionWe will discuss the current technologies in the crypto worldMajor coins such as $BTC , $ETH , $BNB , $XRP, $SOL will always be on our radarUnlike my social media posts, here we will also examine #altcoins with medium and low market capsTechnical analysis (Fundamental TA, PA-Price Action, Smart Money Concepts, Liquidation Concepts, ICT etc.) will be our main basis, analyzes will not be limited to wishesWe will determine the peak and profit targets that can be seen in the bull season for many coinsWe will have horizon-angle educational content for those who want to take themselves a step further in technical and fundamental analysisWe will have educational and guiding technical analyzes for those who want to do day trade/swing trade at a more advanced level from simple trading techniques
I want to produce permanent values ​​and put useful content out there. I hope that this mutual development can help us move each other forward. 🙏
If you are interested in the topics I mentioned and share the same excitement as me, don't forget to follow and share the coins you are interested in in the comments. I will consider each one individually. 👊

Let's get started! 🔥

@Loni Autullo DvXl for you 🤝

I stopped writing on social media for 3 weeks. You were the first and only one to write in this period. For this reason, as I promised, I am sharing the up-to-date analysis of $INJ and $LINK with you.

If I hadn't received your message, I had no intention of making a new post. I don't know if I'll continue writing in the future, to be honest. 🙄 I will write a few things about why I stopped writing at the end of this post.

First of all, I looked at some of the analyses I have made since my last post, and I saw that the analyses are still valid and continue in line with the scenarios I explained, since what I said daily and in the longer term is not something that quickly loses its relevance. For this reason, past posts can still be used for a while.

👉 $INJ

I drew the market structure and added a simple downtrend resistance. As you can see from the market structure, unless 11.12 (updated as the chart progresses) is broken and a new HH is made, the daily trend will continue to fall. If the green box support does not hold, it is possible to see prices of $4 and $3.

After a fall to support or slightly above, a correction rise (pullback) may be seen like the previous ones. In this case, this intermediate zone can be traded by considering the warning I made about 11.12, without forgetting that it is still in a downtrend.

The price can rise to the resistance line or fill the imbalance above with a quick wick and then continue to fall. The reaction rise should not be perceived as a trend reversal without seeing a daily volume candle close above 11.12

Even those who are a bit more experienced than those who hold spot, if they see an increase to the levels I mentioned, they can gradually sell from here and add again cheaply at lower levels, or let's say the trend turns and the increase starts, buying at a higher price above 11.12 and 14.85 can be safer than buying at this level and waiting. It's all about your experience and preferences.

👉 $LINK

I remember in my old posts that I said that the downtrend was confirmed after the closing below the deviation limits of the re-accumulation range above. Apart from the range low level, this limit level that I showed with the red box was also re-tested and could not be won, so it confirmed the decline many times.

Here too, the green box is an important S-R flip support level of almost 1.5 years. Also, the previous LL level (dashed green line) just below the green box coincides with the support level of an uptrend of almost 9 months (I did not draw it to avoid complicating the chart too much, but horizontal levels are enough). Therefore, it is very important to hold this level. If daily closings are seen below it, declines may deepen.

Ps: After completing the analysis and starting to write the post, I took a meal and rest break. With the developments in that period, I saw that the lower level was exceeded. Therefore, if the daily closing is below 11.85, the new break of structure (bos) is also considered to have occurred and the correction and decline scenario I described will continue.

You can draw and follow the LH and LL along with the market structure as I did in INJ. I only marked the last LH and LL and put this range in a dark gray box. Since there has not been a close below the level I marked with the dashed green line yet, it has not made a new bearish BOS (break of structure), but the downtrend continues.

It should not be forgotten that the downtrend continues as long as a new HH is not made and that intermediate increases are corrections. It would be useful to consider my same warnings for this analysis as well. Similarly, it can make a correction increase up to the trend resistance or imbalance zone and then continue its decrease.

As I said, the important thing is to see that it has made a new HH and confirm the trend reversal. Currently, this level is 16.0, but if a new breakout does not occur as the chart progresses, this level will be updated.

😳 My lack of motivation to share on social media

Actually there are many reasons but let me try to express a few:

First of all, as I said in my previous posts, my aim here is to be useful to people and the peace I feel when I feel the inner sense of being useful in return. Some may say it is ego satisfaction, but I don't think it has much to do with it. This is a different feeling, those who share the same feeling will understand what I am saying. I have mentioned my past experiences and recent efforts in previous posts. I am already on my own path full time and I do not need such a thing.

After I started writing on X, I received an invitation from the Square team and decided to write here without expecting any return or benefit. Because there is no specific audience for a topic on X, there is a general audience, but since there will be people directly interested in crypto here, I thought I could reach more people and be useful. In addition, I thought that through mutual sharing and analysis, I could gain new perspectives and have an opportunity to develop further.

After sharing on the platform for a while, it didn't take long for me to realize that this was just a one-sided monologue. I kept trying a little more, but the reach of the posts wasn't as high as I expected, and the interaction received in return for the views was very low. There could be various reasons for this:
- People may not need my posts or find them valuable
- The Square algorithm may give low scores to the content according to its own criteria and not present it to a large audience
- The fact that people who see the post don't interact enough and don't exchange ideas or show that they like it may also support this
- etc...

The fact that random messages that do not contain any ideas or analysis, copy paste news and even support calls from unexperienced users receive tens or even hundreds of times more views and interactions than my posts. Those are at the forefront of my questions. Whether it is user-preference or algorithm-preference, in such a situation, there is no point in making posts that take time, are based on information and analysis, and that I put effort into.

Of course, there are also external factors such as macroeconomic developments, crypto being in the second/third plan for me for a while, the manipulations developed by crypto exchanges in collaboration with offshore market maker companies that bother me, etc.

Ultimately, these are the main things that tell me that there is no point in continuing to share.

That's all for now. I wish you lots of earnings and success.

Although I try to write only crypto-focused on Square, it is not possible to make predictions about a financial asset and evaluate investments without understanding the big picture. That's why I've been sharing, albeit in short summaries, about the parts of macroeconomics that concern this side recently. That's why I hope it will be useful for the users of this place 🙏

First of all, I need to explain a few basic things:

👉 GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
GDP is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country’s borders over a specific period, usually a quarter or a year. It is the most widely used measure of a nation’s economic performance.

There are different types of GDP and all of them have different calculation methods, but I won't bore you with the details. It's just important to know that; GDP is crucial for economists, policymakers, and investors as it helps assess economic trends, living standards, and market conditions. GDP reflects the overall health and size of an economy.

👉 Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Debt-to-GDP Ratio represents the proportion of a country's total public debt (government debt) relative to its GDP. It is used to assess how sustainable a nation's debt is compared to the size of its economy.

Comparing a country’s debt to its GDP reveals the country’s ability to pay down its debt. This ratio is considered a better indicator of a country’s fiscal situation than just the national debt number because it shows the burden of debt relative to the country’s total economic output and therefore its ability to repay it.

Low ratios (typically below 60%) → Indicate a stronger financial position and the ability to manage debt effectively.
High ratios (e.g., 100% or more) → Raise concerns about debt sustainability. A country with excessive debt may struggle to pay interest, leading to financial instability.

Higher ratios can signal potential debt crises or even default risks. Investors may perceive higher debt ratios as riskier, affecting government bond yields and credit ratings. Central banks and governments consider debt levels when setting interest rates and fiscal policies.

For example, Japan’s debt-to-GDP is estimated to be approx. 8.84 Trillion USD (1.35 quadrillion yen), or 263% of GDP, and is one of the highest among developed nations. 43.3% of this debt is held by the Bank of Japan. But it remained manageable due to low interest rates and domestic borrowing (until a while ago, but that's another story). In contrast, countries like Argentina have faced economic crises due to unsustainable debt levels.

👀 The U.S. Government Debt
Government Debt in the U.S. is currently approx. 36.22 Trillion USD.

U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio surpassed 100% in 2013 when both debt and GDP were approximately 16.7 trillion and with the latest updated data we see that it is 122.3%.

With the information I provided under the previous title, you can already guess that this current situation is far from sustainable.

💥 U.S. Debts Due in 2025

Nearly $3 trillion of U.S. debt is expected to hit maturity in 2025, much of it of a short-term nature.

Part of the monetary tightening implemented to curb inflation that increased with the money printed after the pandemic was to increase interest rates. Although high interest rates have begun to be reduced along with the "announced inflation" that has begun to be brought under control, they are still well above historical averages.

Since signing new debts at these rates will make things even more inextricable for many years, it is imperative that they are renewed with the lowest possible interest rates.

✨ Early signals that not everyone sees
I think many analysts and people have gone wrong, especially with the idea that Trump wants a strong USD (there are still those who defend this). It would be a mistake for a country that imports value added products from abroad and exports cheaper and less value added products abroad to have such an idea.

Strong USD simply means USD that pays high interest rates. Now, in light of what I have explained, you should understand how absurd, impossible and unsustainable this idea is.

Months ago, before Trump was elected, I had already expressed that these expectations were wrong and that I thought differently in the post I shared below.
https://x.com/TimechainCoder/status/1857895729739502023

At that time, analysts and people made some predictions by misinterpreting the results of Trump's policies, and I made the following post, especially regarding U.S. indicators and gold prices. I do not remember anyone else defending these views at that time.

They thought that the price of gold would reach 2K USD and below, based on memorized assumptions such as if there was geopolitical tension, the price of gold would increase, and if tensions and wars were stopped, the price of gold would decrease. You can see all of them with a simple search on the internet.

Another big misconception stems from people seeing every word spoken by individuals and institutions as something that will be implemented with certainty and is unchangeable, and making predictions and plans based solely on these words without trying to read market realities. I have often voiced my criticism in my X posts that I acted outside expectations in many matters like this, and that when I was proven right, these were actually part of a planned program.

✨ What is Trump trying to do and why have things suddenly come to this?

In light of all the information I have explained above, you should understand that these events are not things that happened all at once, but are part of plans that have been going on for a long time. All of these are just the results of things that were put into practice step by step.

In order to achieve this, first of all, individuals, institutions and other states need to be directed to U.S. government bonds. In this way, bond interest rates can fall. Of course, as a side effect of this, the money that goes into bonds should largely go out of risky assets. What are they? First of all, crypto, stocks and others...

Therefore, these events are not unexpected. What is important is whether the positive effects of this process will be seen and how long it will take to see them.

I will not go into the political aspects of the matter because the scope would increase incredibly and I do not want to extend it, but let me summarize; I do not find 90% of the policies implemented to realize these things right. Trade wars, threats, etc. should not be the right approach of a country whose currency is an international reserve currency because it turns things into gambling to some extent. The uncertainty and fears experienced are actually due to this.

⭐ Conclusion

If Trump succeeds:
U.S. debt is more under controlInflation continues at sustainable levelsMarkets are reset and more credit is provided to the private sector through banks, along with other factors that are under controlQuantitative easing begins and risky markets start a new rally, and all assets priced in USD experience major increases in value

If Trump fails:
Recession is no longer our only concern, it is worse: Stagflation.What does this mean? Both high inflation and U.S. an economic recession that will be reflected in all global markets, especially the marketsA major financial collapse and risky asset prices that have sunk to the groundA global depression, increasing unemployment and poverty that will be experienced throughout this process, medium and low-net-worth people going through much more difficult times, the collapse of many companies that could not properly hedge their assetsThroughout this process, the assets of these two asset groups will continue to shift towards the big ones in the classical order we know and make them even richer

In fact, all of these I have listed express a cycle that we experience in much longer periods of time in the current financial order. Although it may sound like a disaster scenario, it is actually a cycle that most people do not realize while living in it and that has spread over a long period of time.

America is not outside of this cycle either and they are actually a victim of this global slavery system (even though the majority perceives it differently) and what is being tried to be done right now is to try to break the chains of this slavery system. Otherwise, all the assets of the countries will continue to flow into the hands of the circles that are the founders and enforcers of this system I mentioned (I occasionally give veiled messages about these on social media but for some reason I don't want to go too deep, but if you understand my style, you know that I only act in light of science and data and that I am not someone who deals with baseless conspiracy theories).

👀 What should we do as individual investors?
In an environment where even the world's largest central banks, especially the Fed, say "we have not planned our steps for X period of time, we will shape our implementation according to the incoming data", we should of course act as they do, not as they direct us, and try to read the market correctly, shape our investments according to the course, data and real outcomes shown by the markets, not behave emotionally, not fight with the data and trends...

I hope it was a useful and thought-provoking read. 🙏
Peace out!

Attention: All of these writings are my personal opinions and comments and do not contain any investment advice/financial advice etc..
You should do your own research and develop your own personal comments when shaping your investment/financial decisions.

Sources
(1) FiscalData Treasury Gov
(2) U.S. Department of the Treasury
(3) Trading Economics
(4) Wikipedia (😳)

$BTC $ETH $XRP

The $ENA team screwed their investors over very badly. While 2 billion tokens were going to be unlocked on April 5, they suddenly moved the date of this big unlock to March 5, one month before the previously announced, with an unrelated announcement (mixed with other things) without any prior announcement, and most people learned about it very late. Maybe some of them will hear it from me for the first time, who knows!?

On the technical side, the last peak liquidation was left open and no SFP was formed, and inexperienced traders were hunted here and made them think that it would make a new peak after reversing from the S-R flip zone or the worst green line trend support.

The team, which probably planned to bring the date forward much earlier and made huge amounts of profit by opening a short trade at the top after dumping the tokens at a high cost to the investor until here.

After making a fake bounce at trend support for the last hit, it has rejected from trend line and continued dropping with a disgraceful price action. There are liquidity pools in the areas I marked with a blue semicircle and the peak liquidation is also open.

They didn't even miss the opportunity of yesterday's Trump pump and pushed the price back up to the pinpoint trend resistance and dumped another batch of goods at the local top.

Although the project is a good project and has good activities and partners, this operation against the investor is a great example of immorality.

Anyway, the chart speaks for itself from a technical perspective, but if there will be a reversal, this is the intersection point of three different important regions and this region between 0.27-0.37 is technically suitable for reversal.

Also, if 0.3165 is not broken, we can still say that weekly uptrend continues. Interesting, right?

If this level does not work as support, it can fall deeper to the fresh order block at 0.20, where the movement started.

The critical level that it needs to breach in order for the rise to start is 0.4850 and the level where it can first encounter resistance is 0.6600

2 billion tokens unlock tomorrow, if the price is dropped to these levels to meet this large unlock amount, it can be said that this might be priced in, but there is no way for us to be sure.

I think that when the market recovers, it can rise to good levels from here, I have already shared the bull season target analysis, but as I said, this rip-off by the team will not be forgotten easily and will go down in history as a great example of immorality.