- The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers released yesterday dropped to 48.5 in May, down from 48.7 in April, marking the third consecutive month in contraction territory (below 50). This is not just a blip, and 57% of the sector’s GDP contracted in May, up sharply from 41% in April, showing that manufacturing weakness is spreading. The new orders index, a key forward-looking component, came in at 47.6 (up slightly from 47.2), but that’s still four straight months of contraction. Production also remained weak at 45.4, though it ticked up from 44.0 in April. Employment is still shrinking, with the index at 46.8, barely higher than last monthUP - One of the most concerning data points, in my opinion, is the prices paid index. It is still sky high at 69.4, only marginally lower than April’s 69.8. This means manufacturers are facing persistent inflationary pressures, mostly from tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Imports hit a 16-year low and exports a five-year low, highlighting how trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs are biting into demand and supply chains. Interestingly, while some industries like apparel, plastics, and petroleum reported growth in new orders, the majority, including key sectors like food, electronics, and chemicals, are still shrinking. Panellists in the ISM survey mentioned a 3-to-1 ratio of negative to positive comments, citing reduced output and business climate uncertaintycheck_green - Now, how does this affect the Fed’s next move? Markets are currently pricing in around 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, down from 75 basis points a month ago, showing some scaling back of aggressive easing bets. I believe this persistent contraction, especially with inflation still sticky, puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot here. The market was expecting a PMI closer to 49.5, so this miss increases the odds of a rate cut, possibly as early as September.
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$BTC Update Fri Nov 24🔴🟢 Btc has been ranging and eating up retail. Were consolidating in a channel in the weekly fvg that i mentioned weeks ago. Im watching for one of the following to play out, We have a value area range from 34-40k so with all this binance fud i would imagine you have shorts building up. In order to take them out we liq grab to 40-41 then head down to macro support at 32-30k and then make a lower high/ bearish retest of 34-38 then further down. Or we head down to 32 first and we get a nice bounce that takes us up into the low 40s, and then down again. on the lower tfs we can see that were forming a rising channel but recently it looks like were forming either ascending triangle or its a symmetrical triangle. easy way to look at it is which ever side break we either go to 40 or we go to 34 then 40 or down to 32 then 40. One things forsure when we do pullback and fine support, alts will go crazy. Im watching the dxy and it looks like were getting close to a bottom, we have ichi support at current level, however we have the downtrend that we broke that lines up with the golden pocket slightly below (which would line up with the btc liq grab theory). spx managed to get a monster bounce from the level that i showed yall in my previous post, were at our last resistance zone before we retest the ATH. Were at out VAH and were starting to see some big divs on the daily, if we rej everything would line up with btc reversal happening near end of year, so we can see some bloodshed before the halving which is in late march#BTC
Some of my thoughts on the current market: let’s say you are an exchange like Binance. If you let BTC go to 40K now, you would lose all the profits you made in November.. but if you drop BTC now lower, then you could liquidate all the leveraged longs.. right? I can never be 100% sure what happens next, but this is really logical. Another thing that shocked me is that ETH application for ETF from Blackrock is confirmed today.. ETH is still down. Maybe last week’s market already priced in 100% that Blackrock will apply for ETH ETF? If we get a major news about BTC or Tether ETF approval then the market will get a big pump up, but if not, then i am worried that the market is over leveraged on the long side so market makers would want to take BTC lower to flush all the longs. Be careful #dyor
$BTC update Nov Ist 🔴🔴 Bitcoin is ranging between 34000-34700ish for few days. From technical point of view, the price rejected a local resistance zone(supply). This zone (marked red zone) is strong resistance for now, but if we break it out (succesfuly), the next target is likely to be 38k. Im not saying that the price will break it out. We need to see big buying pressure to see break out on current supply zone.The good sign here (for short term moves) is that the price is respecting as support a POC level (34477). Its possible to become a resistance level if the price break it down and rejects it (keep this in mind). In general, there isnt major changes from technical point of view, this week. The price is just consolidating and forming a good base around a this level, which is important for long term movement. RSI is sitting at 51, which is neutral. There isnt divergence overnight. From fundamental point of view, there is few news today: JOLTs at 14 UTC time and FED Press Conference at 18:30 UTC. The market is expecting a 9.25 for JOLTs and its priced in. Its possible to see some volatility during FED press conference, keep this in mind. Volume profile is looking good. There are 2 small volume gaps(locals): 34247-34319; 34381-34458; POC is sitting at 34477.The plan for today: Current price is sitting above POC and its breaking it out after fake down. I will wait for a candle close above it and if the price stays above POC will long it (small long here). If the price closes below it and rejects it=>short;