Only-Crypto

ALTCOINS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO A BOTTOM THAN A TOP.
If you zoom out on the right charts and look at the right macro signals, that’s what they are screaming.
Most people stare at M2 but the key signal for this cycle is US small caps, Russell 2000 (IWM).
IWM just printed the highest monthly close in its history and is pushing into its 2025 highs, right at the top of the range.
When US small caps are doing this, it usually means US liquidity is rising and the market is willing to take risk.
Altcoins and Russell 2000 both track US liquidity and in those phases alts have always followed with strong rallies.
You can see it clearly on the chart:
IWM has broken or retested big horizontal levels from 2015, 2018 and 2021.
Each time it did that, BTC pushed higher afterwards and the alts followed with a delay.
Right now, IWM is back at the 2025 highs, while BTC and alts are still below their own peaks. That’s the same lag structure we saw before big alt moves in 2020-2021.
And in all of Bitcoin’s history, a real multi year bear market has never started while IWM was breaking into new highs.
Every major bear market showed up when small caps were weak, not when they were at record levels.
On Bitcoin itself:
- Higher timeframe trend from the 2022 lows is still bullish.
↦ BTC is trying to re couple with equities again, moving with risk assets instead of against them.
Some EMAs and levels have broken on the daily / lower timeframes, but that has not changed the HTF structure. It looks like a mid cycle drawdown, not a finished cycle.
Now add the macro side:
↦ The Fed is already in a rate-cut cycle.
↦ Big banks expect QE-style actions by early 2026 as funding and debt pressures build.
↦ Trump is talking about removing income tax and giving $2,000 in tariff dividends.
Now putting everything together:
↦ IWM at the strongest monthly close ever and pressing 2025 highs
↦ BTC still in a bullish higher timeframe structure
↦ Altcoins and Russell 2000 both tied to US liquidity, which is turning up
↦ BTC and alts have never started a true bear market with small caps at new highs
↦ Macro catalysts lined up into 2025-2026 (rate cuts, QE-like measures, potential tax relief )
↦ More and more analysts modelling a cycle peak in 2026 not 2025.

This set up does not look like the start of a long bear market.
It looks like an extended cycle, where BTC and alts still have room to make new highs in 2026 if this regime holds.