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📊Impact of Scenario A on GDP (Percent deviation from baseline)
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Forecast Uncertainty around Global Growth and Inflation Projections (Percent)
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Change in 🇨🇳China’s Exports by Destination Region and Tariff Episode in Selected Sectors (Billions of US dollars)
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Change in Exports by Destination Region and Tariff Episode (Billions of US dollars) $BTC $ETH
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📊Trade Reallocation in Response to Tariffs: Will This Time Be Different? Exports by Destination Country Type and Tariff Episode (Index, Feb. 2018 and Feb. 2025 = 100; solid = Feb. 2018 tariff episode, dashed = Feb. 2025 tariff episode) The shift in US trade policy in 2025 differs notably from the changes during 2018–19. For instance, whereas the previous round of tariff increases was directed primarily at a single trading partner—China—the current period is characterized by broader-based tariff hikes affecting a wider range of countries, alongside a marked rise in trade policy uncertainty. This raises an important question: Has the distinct nature of the 2025 tariff shock led to different patterns of adjustment in bilateral trade between the United States and China, both with each other and with third-party countries, relative to the after-math of 2018–19 tariff hikes? This box sheds some preliminary light on this question based on bilateral monthly trade flow data. $BTC $ETH $BNB #WriteToEarnUpgrade #USJobsData
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