BTC is trading around 90900 as of December 9 2025 1130 AM IST down 07 percent in the last 24 hours. The broader crypto market cap has slipped below 31T after a 12 percent daily decline. Todays price action is largely driven by caution ahead of the US Federal Reserves interest rate decision expected later today 730 PM IST 200 PM UTC.
Key On Chain and Macro Data December 9 2025
7 day exchange net outflow 87000 BTC whale accumulation signal source CryptoQuant
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows yesterday 12 billion strongest single day since mid November Farside Investors
November 2025 was the worst month for US spot BTC ETFs since launch 39 billion net outflow Morningstar
Bitcoin realized cap hit a new all time high of 685 billion last week long term holders still in profit
Funding rates across perpetual futures have cooled to neutral no extreme leverage
Technical Picture Daily and Weekly
Price holding above the 50 day EMA 88500 but still below the 200 day EMA 92200
Weekly RSI at 78 elevated but far from the 94 peak seen in March 2021
Immediate resistance 92000 then 95000
Key support zone 88000 85000 November low
A break and weekly close above 95K would invalidate the current descending channel
What to Expect from Todays Fed Decision
Markets are pricing in a 99 percent probability of a 25 bps cut CME FedWatch
Dovish cut plus soft guidance risk on move BTC likely retests 95K 97K this week
Cut delivered but hawkish tone short term correction toward 85K 88K possible
Revised Institutional Forecasts
Standard Chartered lowered 2025 target to 100K 2026 150K
Bernstein 150K by end 2026
VanEck Fundstrat still holding 130K 180K for current cycle peak mid late 2026
Bottom Line
We remain in the mid phase of the post halving cycle month 8 of 18 20 historically. Institutional inflows have resumed after Novembers shake out and long term holder metrics stay healthy. Short term direction will be decided by tonights Fed statement and tomorrows US CPI print.
No euphoria no FOMO calls just data
Whats your realistic price expectation for Q1 2026 Drop it in the comments
Sources CryptoQuant Farside Investors Bloomberg Reuters Kitco TradingView December 9 2025
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