WINTERMUTE market update week 1/12/2025:
1. BOJ shock and impact on the market
BOJ signals interest rate hike → Carry trade is squeezed → large-scale deleveraging wave.
This breaks the fragile stability after Thanksgiving.
Crypto, which is heavily dependent on global liquidity, suffers negative reactions:
BTC falls rapidly due to thin liquidity, lack of order book depth.
Gold rises, showing that BTC is still not a safe haven asset when systemic risks appear.
2. Situation before the shock
The market is in a state of improvement:
BTC from mid-80k → low-90k.
Both retail and institutions start buying again.
But BOJ's hawkish signal immediately reverses sentiment.
3. Market structure: bad in sentiment but good in technique
Sentiment is still weak, lacking new narrative.
However, the market data is showing a very healthy reset:
Funding rate neutral/negative for the first time since October.
Open Interest perp dropped sharply from 230bn → 135bn (leverage washed out).
Spot accounts for the majority of volume, absorbing selling pressure well despite the holiday.
✦ This is a typical set of conditions before a consolidation phase, if the macro environment stabilizes again.
4. Cash flow is still completely dominated by macro
High beta groups (AI, DePIN, Gaming, L2s) led the decline.
L1s and GMCI-30 held their prices better, but were still caught up in the general trend.
Narrative altcoins continue to be an “exit liquidity” opportunity as new cash flows prioritize majors (BTC/ETH) first.
