Bitcoin just flashed the same signal which has marked the bottom multiple times in the past.
Over the last decade, Bitcoin has printed one of its most misunderstood signals again and again.
The Death Cross, when the 50-day SMA drops below the 200-day SMA.
Most traders panic. But the data tells a different story.
The last 4 major Death Crosses this cycle during an upward 200-SMA actually marked the bottom, which was followed by an upside rally.
Macro Historical Facts:
9 out of 12 Death Crosses were followed by a strong rally.
Only 25% led to deeper drops, mainly during clear bear trends like 2014.
If the 200-day SMA is in uptrend (like this cycle), the Death Cross is usually a bottom signal.
The Last 4 Times it Happened this cycle:
✅ Price dipped into oversold territory
✅ Panic hit the market
✅ BTC bottomed near the cross
✅ A multi-month rally followed
Each rally ran +20% to +40% shortly after, and even bigger moves in the months that followed.
Today’s setup is nearly identical.
Why This 2025 Signal Looks Even More Bullish?
This year’s Death Cross is forming in deeply oversold conditions, without any strong pre-bounce.
That’s important.
In 2019, the Death Cross happened AFTER a big bounce (bearish).
In 2025, it happened BEFORE a bounce (bullish), just like the previous bottom-forming crosses.
That puts the probability of a rally at 75%, based on historical data.
What It Means for the Price?
If BTC repeats the same structure as the last 4 signals this quarter: $80K could be the bottom zone.
A relief rally into $100K–$110K over the next 1–3 months becomes very realistic.
That’s the same pattern every time:
Death Cross → Bottom → Breakout Rally → Multi-Month Trend.
The next few weeks will tell the story!
