๐ Executive Summary
ETH/USDT remains in a strong bearish trend, even after a +3.57% relief bounce from oversold levels. Price is well below all key EMAs, confirming macro bearishness.
Butโฆ momentum indicators are extremely oversold, meaning the bounce could extend toward higher resistance before sellers return.
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1๏ธโฃ Technical Analysis โ Key Observations
๐ฐ Price & EMAs
Current Price: $2,832.50
Trend: Bearish โ price below all EMAs
EMA 7 โ $2,908
EMA 25 โ $3,266
EMA 99 โ $3,694
๐ Interpretation:
ETH is deeply undervalued relative to its moving averages. Every EMA is a hard resistance zone if price continues upward.
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๐ Support & Resistance
Immediate Resistance:
24h High โ $2,835
EMA 7 โ $2,908
Strong Resistance:
EMA 25 โ $3,266
Immediate Support:
24h Low โ $2,704
Next Supports โ $2,623 โ $2,542
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โก Momentum Indicators
RSI (6): 29.55 โ Oversold zone
StochRSI: 8.15
MA StochRSI: 4.64
๐ Interpretation:
ETH is showing classic oversold bounce signals, with momentum indicators at extreme lows.
This increases the probability of a short-term upward move.
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๐ Volume
Current Volume: 71,667
MA 5 Volume: 633,457
MA 10 Volume: 649,596
๐ Meaning:
Bounce = low volume, meaning buyers arenโt strong โ but selling pressure is also weak.
A true reversal requires bigger volume.
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2๏ธโฃ Price Prediction โ Scenarios
๐ฆ Base Case โ 60% Probability: Bounce to EMA(7)
ETH likely pushes toward $2,908, the EMA 7.
Expect heavy resistance and possible consolidation there.
๐ฅ Bearish Case โ 30% Probability
Rejection near $2,835 โ $2,900, followed by breakdown below:
โก๏ธ $2,704 โ Targets $2,623
๐ฉ Bullish Case โ 10% Probability
Strong breakout above $2,908 with volume โ Push to $3,000.
Very unlikely without big market shift.
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3๏ธโฃ Trade Plan
๐ฅ A. SHORT-TERM TRADERS (Scalp/Swing)
Scenario 1 โ Long (Oversold Bounce)
๐ข Aggressive Setup
Entry:
Pullback to $2,810 โ $2,820, or
Break & hold above $2,835
Stop-Loss: Below $2,700
Targets:
TP1 โ $2,880
TP2 โ $2,908 (EMA 7)
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Scenario 2 โ Short (Sell Resistance)
๐ด Cautious Setup
Entry:
Short between $2,880 โ $2,910
Stop-Loss: Above $2,950
Targets:
TP1 โ $2,750
TP2 โ $2,705
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๐ก B. LONG-TERM INVESTORS (Spot Accumulation)
Oversold readings + fear zone = Good for DCA ๐ฅ
Buy Zones:
First Buy โ Current price
Second Buy โ $2,750
Third Buy โ $2,620
๐ Mindset:
Trend = bearish โ Expect volatility.
Only deploy capital youโre comfortable holding long-term.
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4๏ธโฃ Risk Management โ ๏ธ
Invalidation (Longs Fail): Break below $2,704
Short-Term Strength: Break above $2,908 (EMA 7)
Position Sizing: Keep small โ Volume is weak
Market Context:
This is NOT a reversal, only a bounce inside a downtrend.
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๐ข Conclusion
ETH is showing a textbook oversold bounce, with clear upside toward EMA 7 at $2,908, but the larger trend remains bearish. Smart traders will focus on bounce plays, range shorts, and DCA strategies.
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