🔥TONIGHT COULD DETERMINE THE NEXT BIG CRYPTO MOVE
If the market felt like it was shaking last night, it wasn’t your imagination. The newly released Fed minutes revealed something extremely rare complete internal division, no unified direction, and rising uncertainty. And whenever TradFi loses clarity, crypto becomes the first to react.
October Minutes Expose a Major Internal Split
The Fed was divided into three clear camps:
Cut Rates Group: Several members leaning toward a 25bp cut in December if upcoming data supports it.
Wait-and-See Group: Many officials prefer to keep rates unchanged — and in Fed language, “many” outweighs “several.”
• Radical Split: One side pushed for a bold 50bp cut, while another argued for absolutely no cuts.
This is the most fractured the Fed has been all year.
⚠️ 2. A 44-Day Data Blackout Has Blinded the Fed
Due to the long shutdown, crucial data never arrived: no October jobs numbers, a September report delayed by 1.5 months, no GDP update, and an incomplete inflation dataset.
The Fed is making decisions in fog, and markets hate uncertainty.
📉 3. Rate-Cut Expectations Crashed
After the minutes:
• December cut odds fell from 50% to below 30%
• “Hold steady” expectations jumped near 70%
• Swap pricing dropped from 11bps to 6bps
This is why markets froze — and crypto followed.
Labour Market Warning Signs
Only 17,000 jobs were added in September (vs 50,000 expected), unemployment claims rose by 40,000, and layoffs are accelerating signalling weak growth and higher volatility.🎯 Tonight’s Data Could Break the Market
The delayed September non-farm payrolls arrive tonight:
• Expected new jobs: 50,000
• Expected unemployment: 4.3%
This is the only fresh data before the next Fed meeting.
A miss triggers shock.
A beat triggers relief.
Either way, crypto will move before stocks do.
