Price Check: SOL is currently around $145 - $155.
✅ Why It’s Possible
It happened before: During the 2022–2023 crypto crash, SOL fell from its peak around $260 to about $8–$10, a drop of roughly –96%.
Crypto is extremely volatile: A severe global market downturn or a crypto-specific black swan event (e.g., major regulatory shock, major exchange failure, or critical network incident) could trigger extreme fear and heavy selling.
Institutional interest remains: Despite volatility, institutions continue to accumulate Solana ETFs, suggesting sustained long-term confidence in the ecosystem.
❌ Why It’s Unlikely
The network is far stronger now: Solana’s ecosystem, developer activity, and real-world adoption are significantly more mature today compared to the previous cycle.
It would require a catastrophic event: A drop of –93% from current levels would demand a crisis on the scale of (or worse than) the FTX collapse—an event that severely distorted SOL’s prior valuation.
📉 Key Support Zones to Watch
1. $40–$50: Major historical support region.
2. $18–$25: The consolidation zone formed before the previous cycle’s final bottom.
In short: It's technically possible because it happened before, but the current market and ecosystem structure suggest it's a very low probability event without a massive, market-wide collapse or a Solana-specific catastrophe.
