Fed cancels December rate cut, 18% chance of hike, slowing Bitcoin rally.

Markets drop the December cut; Bitcoin likely steadier than alts into 2026..

The Federal Reserve just cut the policy rate by 25 basis points, moving the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. However, futures markets have now removed the prospect of a further cut in December.

Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, many traders expected a third rate cut because inflation had gradually eased, the labor market showed signs of softening, and the Fed had already begun easing.

While the Fed did cut this time, Powell emphasized that another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion, far from it.”

Powell said.

“There were strongly different views today. And the takeaway from that is that we haven’t made a decision about December, and we’re going to be looking at the data that we have and how that affects the outlook and the balance of risks.”

According to CME FedWatch, probabilities shifted after the press conference from a near lock on an additional cut to a hold as the base case with a live hike tail, and rate path distributions across 2026 moved up and flattened.