📊 Today’s Market Update (October 28, 2025)
According to the latest CME “FedWatch” data, markets are expecting a rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week.
Probability Fed keeps rates unchanged: 2.7%
Probability of a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut: 97.3%
Probability of a 50 basis point (0.50%) cut by December: 95.3%
📉 Morgan Stanley Forecast:
The bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in its second consecutive meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4%.
📅 Expected Fed Actions This Wednesday:
Cut rates by 25 basis points (0.25%)
Could signal further rate cuts
May pause the balance sheet reduction program, effectively stopping the runoff of Fed assets
💬 Analyst Derek Tang (LHMeyer):
He commented that this dual easing approach — rate cuts and potentially pausing balance sheet reduction early — would boost market confidence and expand investor risk appetite.
He added that while pausing the balance sheet reduction isn’t guaranteed, tight liquidity conditions in financial markets make it more likely this week.
📈 Market Outlook:
Investors are closely watching the Fed’s policy statement and press conference, as any hints on future rate cuts or policy changes could have a major impact on stocks, bonds, and crypto markets this week.
